Friday, July 17, 2009

Market wrap - 4:55PM

Sorry, I'm a little late. Pretty uneventful today. The only entertainment was watching the CNBC cheerleaders to continue the relentless market pump. Dow 8,743.94 +32.12 (0.37%) S&P 500 940.38 -0.36 (-0.04%) Nasdaq 1,886.61 +1.58 (0.08%) Gold 938 +2 +0.23% Oil 63.38 1.54 2.49% Today by sector: Today's heatmap:

Hank Paulson vs. Marcy Kaptur at testimony - 3:30PM

I saw this live and thought it was pretty good. This was from Thursday, July 16, 2009 Good for Marcy, like her or not.

CIT in talks with Goldman and another Wall Street bank for financing - 12:50PM

Reported on CNBC but no details as of yet. I will post them when I can find some.
Update - 1:17 CIT soars on report of financing talks with banks - from MarketWatch SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- CIT Group Inc. (CIT 0.90, +0.49, +119.51%) shares soared during Friday afternoon trading after Reuters reported that the troubled lender is in talks with J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM 36.61, +0.48, +1.32%) and Goldman Sachs (GS 156.09, -0.75, -0.48%) for short-term financing of $2 billion to $3 billion. CIT shares jumped 40 cents to 81 cents in afternoon action on Friday. A CIT spokesman didn't immediately respond to a phone call and email seeking comment.
Good, taxpayers have done enough of the bailouts, JPM and GS have plenty of our money.

Housing starts - 8:35AM

Full report here FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE FRIDAY, JULY 17, 2009 AT 8:30 A.M. EDT CB09-109 Erica Filipek or Stephen Cooper Manufacturing and Construction Division (301) 763-5160 NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN JUNE 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for June 2009: BUILDING PERMITS "Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000. This is 8.7 percent (±3.0%) above the revised May rate of 518,000, but is 52.0 percent (±3.6%) below the June 2008 estimate of 1,174,000." Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 430,000; this is 5.9 percent (±1.4%) above the revised May figure of 406,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 109,000 in June. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000. This is 3.6 percent (±11.3%)* above the revised May estimate of 562,000, but is 46.0 percent (±4.3%) below the June 2008 rate of 1,078,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 470,000; this is 14.4 percent (±11.8%) above the revised May figure of 411,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 101,000. HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 818,000. This is 0.4 percent (±15.7%)* below the revised May estimate of 821,000 and is 27.7 percent (±9.0%) below the June 2008 rate of 1,131,000. Single-family housing completions in June were at a rate of 538,000; this is 8.9 percent (±14.7%)* above the revised May figure of 494,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 271,000. New Residential Construction data for July 2009 will be released on Tuesday, August 18, 2009, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. Our Internet site is:

Pre-market - July 17, 2009 - 8:10AM

Futures about even this morning after earnings results from BAC, C, GE, and Google and IBM last night. And the opps call by CNBC on Nouriel Roubini. DJIA INDEX 8,619.00 -50.00 S&P 500 929.50 -6.20 935.40 NASDAQ 100 1,507.00 -5.75 Gold 935 -4 -0.43% Oil 61.60 -0.47 -0.76% Today's economic calendar: Housing Starts - 8:30am Today's earnings reports:

Thursday, July 16, 2009

OOPS! Roubini says he's misquoted - 5:13PM

Breaking news just now from CNBC said Roubini was misquoted. I got a screen shot of their website before the link doesn't work. Here is the original link The Fast Money crew is spinning this so bad it's comical. They have been toting this call since they reported it around the time the market launched. Even had a graphic after the close calling it the "Roubini Rally." From Roubini's website: Nouriel Roubini | Jul 16, 2009 “It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context. “I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end. “Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year. “I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%. “I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand. “While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation. “Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures. “So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting. “RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website:”
UPDATE: I get a mailed newsletter from RGEMonitor, Roubini's website. I received the content I posted above in an e-mail. In the subject line they had this - RGE ALERT - Statement on U.S. Economic Outlook by Dr. Nouriel Roubini. I received the e-mail at 5:23.

Market wrap - 5:00PM - sorry a bit late

Roubini Rally says CNBC. Dow 8,711.82 +95.61 (1.11%) S&P 500 940.74 +8.06 (0.86%) Nasdaq 1,885.03 +22.13 (1.19%) Gold 935 -4 -0.43% Oil 62.00 0.48 0.78% Today by sector: Today's heatmap: Notable earnings before open tomorrrow - BAC,C,GE,MAT Ecomomic calendar - 8:30 Housing starts

Now Roubini sees green shoots - who got to him? - plus other reading material - 2:50

I have always read Roubini, and thought he told it like it was. As time went on, we find out he had some sort of deal with Larry Summers. About the time we found that out, he changed his tune. I'm not ready to call him a trader, but close. U.S. Stocks Rise as Roubini Predicts Recession to End This Year - Bloomberg ****Let me just add, CNBC is now talking about how Roubini moved the market. Roubini has been absent from CNBC for quite some time. Why? Because he might not talk about green shoots. Lately they have been mocking and laughing at him. Now, they are touting his latest prognostication. CNBC, your pathetic, and getting worse by the day. This helps prove you are not a business channel, but a comedy of liars. But just now from Reuters - U.S. may need another fiscal stimulus: Roubini CIT Group’s Bondholders Said to Discuss Debt Swap - Bloomberg Nokia posts 66% drop in second-quarter profit - Sony Ericsson swings to a loss as sales plunge 40% - MarketWatch Cisco cutting up to 700 employees at headquarters - MarketWatch Key U.S. factory index slips, jobless claims tumble - Reuters Here's the original call by CNBC - before that gets full too.

Builder Caution Reflects Fragile Housing Market In June - 1:10PM

Contrary to what CNBC is telling you - Their headline "Homebuilder Confidence Index Reaches 10-Month High (story developing)- just might be a tad full if dung. Full link here June 15, 2009 - Indicating that single-family home builders remain cautious and concerned about the fragile state of today’s economy and housing market, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) declined one point to 15 in June. “The outlook for home sales has improved somewhat in recent months, due largely to implementation of the first-time home buyer tax credit and gains in housing affordability,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “However, looking forward, home builders are facing a few headwinds, including expiration of the tax credit at the end of November; a recent upturn in interest rates; and especially the continuing lack of credit for housing production loans.” “As expected, the housing market continues to bump along trying to find a bottom,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Meanwhile, builders are taking their cue from consumers, who remain uncertain about the economy and their own situation. Builders are also finding it difficult to complete a sale because customers cannot sell their existing homes.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Two out of three of the HMI’s component indexes were unchanged in June, including the index gauging current home sales, which held at 14, and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers, which held at 13. Meanwhile, the index gauging expectations for the next six months declined a single point, to 26. Regionally, the decline was entirely focused in the South, which is the nation’s largest housing market. There, the HMI declined 3 points to 15, while the rest of the regions posted gains. The Northeast had a one-point gain to 20, the Midwest, a one-point gain to 15, and the West, a two-point gain to 14. EDITOR’S NOTE: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed online at: More information on housing statistics is also available at:

CNBC - Larry Kudlow vs. Dennis Kucinich on the Paulson hearing - 12:58PM

I didn't think CNBC would post this because it is evidence of their bais and down right stupidity. Larry Kudblow was his usual manic self yelling over everybody else in the room while interviewing Dennis Kucinich about the Paulson testimony over the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch takeover and the failure to disclose the toxic books of Merrill. I'm not sure if Kudblow was ripping into Kucinich because he's democrat or because he actually thinks it's fine Lewis didn't tell the sharholders about their soon coming fleecing of their stock. Or if Kudlow is just an idiot - which seems to be prerequisite to work at CNBC. Enjoy the show;

As reported on other blogs - but I'll add it here too - 12:20PM

Long Beach Port Traffic Decline Continues Cargo shipments coming through the Port of Long Beach fell 29 percent in June compared with a year ago, according to figures released Tuesday. Last month, 413,347 cargo container units, or TEUs, moved through Long Beach terminals, compared with 579,675 TEUs in June 2008. Through the first six months of 2009, imports are down nearly 28 percent and exports are off 29 percent from a year ago. While cargo has been consistently lower this year, the June figures are especially disappointing because it reverses a trend of increasing activity that began in March. Around 2 percent fewer containers, or 6,208 TEUs, moved through Long Beach in June compared to May, a sign that international trade remains slow and fewer retailers are stocking up for Christmas. The Port of Los Angeles has not yet released its June cargo figures.

Philly FED Survey - 10:00AM

Full report here in PDF form July 2009 Business Outlook Survey The region's manufacturing sector is still experiencing weakness, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month, although the indexes' levels remained above their average readings for the year. Firms also report continued declines in employment and work hours this month. Most of the survey's broad indicators of future activity declined slightly this month, but they continue to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect a recovery in business over the next six months. Current Indicators Still Suggest Weakness The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from -2.2 in June to -7.5 this month. The index has been negative for 19 of the past 20 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession (see Chart). Firms reporting decreases in activity (31 percent) slightly outnumbered those reporting increases (23 percent). Other broad indicators suggest weakness, although recent declines in new orders may be stabilizing. The current new orders index edged three points higher, to -2.2, its highest reading in 10 months. However, the current shipments index declined 12 points. Indexes for delivery times and unfilled orders, which have remained negative for 15 consecutive months, suggest continued weakness. Labor market conditions remain weak, and firms continue to report employment losses and declines in work hours. The current employment index declined to -25.3, from an already weak reading of -21.8. Thirty percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 5 percent reported increases. Although the workweek index improved 11 points, 24 percent of the firms reported shorter hours and 9 percent reported longer hours. Price Index Suggests Near Steady Input Prices Firms reported less widespread declines in input prices again this month. The prices paid index, although still negative at -3.5, increased nearly 10 points; it has now risen 28 points over the last three months. Fifteen percent of firms reported cost decreases, and 11 percent reported increases. However, declines dominate prices for the manufacturers' own final goods: Over 25 percent reported price declines, while only 4 percent reported increases. The prices received index declined five points, to -21.5. Six-Month Indicators Show Continued Improvement Broad indicators of future activity fell somewhat from their six-year highs last month, but they continue to suggest that firms are expecting improved conditions later this year. The future general activity index remained positive for the seventh consecutive month, but decreased from 60.1 in June to 51.9 this month. Last month's reading was its highest since September 2003 (see Chart). Indexes for future new orders and shipments also retreated 12 points this month. For the third consecutive month the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (22 percent vs. 9 percent), and the future employment index was virtually unchanged. Firms' forecast for future capital spending remains subdued: The share of firms expecting higher capital spending over the next six months (20 percent) is nearly the same as the percentage expecting decreases (17 percent). In special questions this month firms were asked about seasonal plant shutdowns or slowdowns during the summer (see Special Questions). Nearly 28 percent of firms indicated that it was normal to schedule such slowdowns, but nearly 49 percent said they would schedule them this year. Moreover, 62 percent of the firms scheduling shutdowns/slowdowns indicated that production decreases for July would be greater than usual. Nearly 49 percent indicated production declines for August would be greater than usual. Summary According to respondents to the July Business Outlook Survey, declines in the region's manufacturing sector continued this month, although declines were not as large as those registered over most of the first half of the year. Indicative of continued weakness, however, firms are still reporting declines in employment and work hours. Although input prices may be stabilizing, over one-quarter of the firms reported declines in prices for their own manufactured goods. Future indicators suggest that firms expect improvement in conditions over the next six months, and for the third consecutive month, the number of firms expecting increases in employment over the next six months is larger than the number expecting declines.

Jobless claims - July 16, 2009 8:35AM

Full report here: UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 569,000. The 4-week moving average was 584,500, a decrease of 22,500 from the previous week's revised average of 607,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 5.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 4 was 6,273,000, a decrease of 642,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,915,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,666,750, a decrease of 110,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,777,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.449 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week. There were 483,981 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending July 4, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,135,066, an increase of 63,714 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,118,724. Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending June 27. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,642 in the week ending July 4, an increase of 14 from the prior week. There were 1,870 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 192 from the preceding week. There were 17,471 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending June 27, an increase of 17 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 28,772, an increase of 242 from the prior week. States reported 2,525,342 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending June 27, an increase of 6,241 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 27 were in Michigan (7.2 percent), Puerto Rico (6.9), Oregon (6.5), Pennsylvania (6.3), Nevada (6.1), Wisconsin (5.8), California (5.4), South Carolina (5.4), Connecticut (5.2), Illinois (5.2), New Jersey (5.2), and North Carolina (5.2). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 4 were in Michigan (+12,144), New York (+8,913), Wisconsin (+5,838), Indiana (+5,430), and Ohio (+4,240), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-5,030), California (-4,293), North Carolina (-3,983), Kansas (-3,544), and Oregon (-1,454).

Pre-market - July 16, 2009 - 8:15AM

Futures a bit flat after the better than expected earning by JP Morgan. Banks making a killing - I'm shocked! Not really. DJIA INDEX 8,543.00 0.00 S&P 500 925.70 -1.50 NASDAQ 100 1,496.25 -1.00 Gold 939 17 1.80% Oil 61.00 -0.38 -0.62% Today's economic calendar: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET RBC CASH Index 9:00 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before market opens After market closes

Market wrap - a day late - 7:44AM

What a rocketship we seen today! Dow 8,616.21 +256.72 (3.07%) S&P 500 932.68 +26.84 (2.96%) Nasdaq 1,862.90 +63.17 (3.51%) Today by sector: Today's heatmap:
In spite of anything, this market wants to go higher, rather the fundamentals support it or not. We are not at the point where we need to see which way this market will go. Check the below chart: Notice we are not right at the right sholder of the head and shoulders pattern. We will see if the bulls can push this higher. The next level will be the head which is around the 956.23. If we would have breached the 878 - 880 level, many bears would have jumped on, the head and shoulders would have been confirmed. Now we need to see if the top is breached which might send this market on another bull run - fundamentals be damned.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Today's FED statement - 2:51PM

From the WSJ WASHINGTON -- U.S. Federal Reserve officials thought last month that the 18-month-old recession would end "before long," according to meeting minutes, but worried that the economy remained vulnerable to shocks. Officials upgraded their projections for the economy over the remainder of 2009 as well as 2010. In contrast, they expect the unemployment rate to exceed their prior forecasts, and at least one official expects it to top 10% through next year. Data between the Fed's April and June meetings "indicated that the economic contraction was slowing and that the decline in activity could cease before long," officials said in the minutes of their June 23-24 meeting, released Wednesday with the usual lag. As universally expected, the Fed held the target federal funds rate for interbank loans near zero at that meeting and pledged to keep rates "exceptionally low... for an extended period." Officials reiterated that stance in Wednesday's minutes, "given their forecasts for only a gradual upturn in activity and the lack of inflation pressures." Many Wall Street economists are taking "extended period" to mean no interest rate hikes until 2010. Yet in the minutes, officials warned that any recovery will be bumpy, especially for the labor market. And while downside risks have receded, they remain "significant." "Labor market conditions were of particular concern to meeting participants," the Fed said, adding that with the recovery expected to be sluggish, "most participants anticipated that the employment situation was likely to be downbeat for some time." The unemployment rate is currently 9.5%, a 26-year high. According to officials' quarterly projections, released along with Wednesday's meeting minutes, jobless rate forecasts for the end of 2009 range from 9.7% to 10.5%. One official expects the unemployment rate to reach 10.6%, though most expect the rate to fall next year. The Fed's bleak view of the employment situation was confirmed by June data released early this month. Payrolls fell by an unexpectedly large 467,000. Officials also saw continuing risks in financial markets. Though markets had improved, "underlying financial conditions remained fragile," the Fed said, and "banks could face substantial losses in their loan portfolios in coming quarters." The June Fed meeting minutes also suggested that officials are in no rush to change their asset purchase programs, which currently include $300 billion in longer-term Treasury securities and a total of $1.45 trillion for mortgage-linked securities. "Although an expansion of such purchases might provide additional support to the economy, the effects of further asset purchases, especially purchases of Treasury securities, on the economy and on inflation expectations were uncertain," according to the minutes.

Don't forget, Paulson to testify tomorrow about BAC - 2:45

Full article here - WSJ WASHINGTON -- Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plans to tell lawmakers he acted appropriately in warning Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis that the firm's management could be ousted if it walked away from its deal to buy Merrill Lynch, saying such a move would have suggested a "colossal lack of judgment." [Henry Paulson] Mr. Paulson, in remarks prepared for an appearance before a House panel on Thursday, said that Bank of America had no legal basis to nix the Merrill deal in the wake of rising losses at the investment bank last December. Any attempt to cancel the merger would have threatened the viability of both Bank of America and Merrill, as well as the broader financial system, Mr. Paulson said. Link to the released statement by Paulson - WSJ

Economists for Indipendant FED - WSJ 2:45PM

Full link here - WSJ - link inside to actual text and signatures. More than 175 prominent economists warned that politicians' attacks on the Federal Reserve are putting "the independence of U.S. monetary policy…at risk," and urged Congress to back off lest it undermine the Fed's ability to manage the economy and thwart inflation. The 185-word petition, initiated by a band of academic economists, reflects growing unease among professors, former Fed officials and some investors that the vehemence of the criticism from Congress of the Fed's handling of the financial crisis suggests a readiness in Congress to weaken the freedom the Fed has to move interest rates as it sees fit.

Weekly Crude report

From MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday, but total stockpiles of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products rose for a 16th straight week to an 11-year high. Crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels in the week ended July 10, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a decline of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles rose 1.5 million barrels and distillate inventories gained 600,000 barrels, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a rise of 750,000 in gasoline stockpiles and a 1.6 million barrels increase in distillates. Total petroleum product inventories rose to 771.5 million barrels, the highest level since September, 1998. After the data, August crude futures rose $1.18, or 2%, to $60.70 a barrel.

Federal Housing Finance Agency report - 10:35AM

Full report here FHFA Reports Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Foreclosure Prevention Efforts for April Washington, DC – Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James B. Lockhart today released FHFA’s latest Foreclosure Prevention Report detailing actions taken by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prevent unnecessary foreclosures and keep people in their homes. The report includes loan modification data under FHFA’s Streamlined Modification Program, which was initiated in November 2008 but ended in April 2009. This report does not include data on refinancings or modifications from the Administration’s Making Home Affordable Program announced in March 2009. The report shows that as of April 30, 2009, of the Enterprises’ 30 million residential mortgages: • Completed loan modifications fell 12 percent in April to approximately 13,800 from March as the Enterprises ended their Streamlined Modification Program (SMP) and began implementing the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). Modifications under the HAMP require a three-month trial period for the borrower to demonstrate the ability and willingness to make modified payments. Modifications under HAMP are counted as completed after the three-month trial period is completed. • Loan modifications accounted for 48 percent of all completed foreclosure prevention actions in April compared to 47 percent in March. Seventy-five percent of loans modified in April involved both rate reductions and term extensions, up from 73 percent in March. • Completed short sales and deeds in lieu increased 15 percent in April 2009 to nearly 4,000, more than three times the volume one year earlier. • Delinquencies continued to increase as approximately 71,700 more loans became 60 days or more delinquent in April. Loans 60-plus-days delinquent increased approximately 7 percent in April to 1.2 million. • Foreclosure starts in April declined 3 percent compared with March to nearly 85,900. Foreclosure starts were lower in April as servicers began to temporarily suspend foreclosure actions on delinquent borrowers who pursued a modification under HAMP, while borrowers’ eligibility was being determined. If a borrower is determined to be ineligible for HAMP, the servicer is required to consider other alternatives to prevent foreclosure such as short sales and deeds in lieu. • Foreclosure and third-party sales increased to 14,200 in April up from 9,300 in March driven by sales of non-occupied properties, and owner-occupied properties already determined to be ineligible for HAMP.
Green shoots huh? I think not. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Until we get those, don't buy anything the talking heads tell you about a recovery.

Industrial Production - June - 9:17AM

Full report here INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in June after having fallen 1.2 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6 percent, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6 percent in June, with declines at both durable and nondurable goods producers. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 0.5 percent in June, and the output of utilities increased 0.8 percent. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent, a level 12.9 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.


Full report here CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in June before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 12 months the index has fallen 1.4 percent, as a 25.5 percent decline in the energy index has more than offset increases of 2.1 percent in the food index and 1.7 percent in the index for all items less food and energy. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.7 percent in June after rising 0.1 percent in May. The acceleration was largely caused by the gasoline index, which rose 17.3 percent in June and accounted for over 80 percent of the increase in the all items index. The index for energy rose 7.4 percent in June, with a decline in the electricity index partly offsetting the sharp increase in gasoline. The food index, which had fallen each of the last four months, was unchanged in June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June following a 0.1 percent increase in May. Most components of all items less food and energy posted increases; the indexes for shelter and medical care rose slightly, while the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, recreation, and apparel all increased at least 0.5 percent. The index for airline fares did decline in June, falling 0.6 percent.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30AM

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers were flat in July. The general business conditions index increased to a level close to zero, rising 9 points, to -0.6. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time in several months, and the shipments index also climbed into positive territory. The inventories index slipped to a record-low -36.5. The prices paid index rose above zero for the first time since November, while the prices received index held below zero. Employment indexes remained well below zero. Future indexes continued to be relatively optimistic about the six-month outlook, but were somewhat less buoyant than in June. The capital spending index fell several points, but remained above zero. In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Report tab), the median respondent indicated that total sales had fallen 15 percent from the first half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, and that the number of employees had decreased 10 percent. Declines for the full year were expected to be of the same respective magnitudes. The same questions were asked in July 2008; in that survey, sales had been seen as rising 5 percent, with employment levels being little changed. When asked if they had recently modified their production plans for the second half of 2009, close to 63 percent of respondents reported that they had scaled back plans, while just 21 percent indicated that they had increased them. This result reflects a much more negative assessment than what was reported in last July’s survey. In response to an additional set of questions new to this survey, manufacturers generally reported little effect thus far from the economic stimulus package. General Business Conditions Index Rises, Holds around Zero. The general business conditions index rose several points in July, hovering around zero for the first time since last summer, at -0.6—suggesting that conditions neither worsened nor improved over the month. Twenty-three percent observed that conditions improved, less than the 28 percent reporting so in June, while 24 percent said that conditions worsened, well below the 38 percent who saw deteriorating conditions in June. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time since September 2008, climbing from -8.2 to 5.9. The shipments index rose similarly, from -4.8 to 11.0, its highest level in a year. The unfilled orders index held steady at -12.5. The delivery time index fell 4 points, to -14.6, and the inventories index declined 11 points, to -36.5, a record low. Input Prices Resume Increase After several months of readings below zero, the prices paid index rose 16 points, to 10.4, the first positive value since November 2008, indicating that input prices are once again on the upswing. The prices received index remained negative, inching up 4points, to -8.3. Employment indexes remained negative and near June readings. The number of employees index was -20.8, and the average workweek index was -19.8. Outlook Remains Favorable The six-month outlook remained favorable in July, although future indexes were somewhat lower than last month. The future general business conditions index fell 14 points, but at 34.0 was well above the very low levels of earlier this year. The future new orders and shipments indexes also declined similarly. The future prices paid index rose 16 points, to 26.0, while the future prices received index held just below zero. Future employment indexes were positive. The capital expenditures index slipped 9 points, to 2.1, while the technology spending index held steady at 1.0.
Contrary to what the talking heads on TV say, this might, and I say might, be better, but far from "green shoots." Until we see job GROWTH, this is far from over, or to think it is getting better. Less worse is NOT better. Invest at your own risk.

Pre-market - July 15, 2009

4...3...2...1...Liftoff! - Futures booming this morning waiting for the bell so this rocket can lift off. Intel posted better than expected earnings last night after close and this market is ready to go parabolic. The recession is over, Dennis Kneale said so. So did Merrill Lynch to back him up. Yipee! Probably 10 million jobs just around the corner. Futures at 7:45 DJIA INDEX 8,377.00 73.00 S&P 500 910.90 9.50 907.30 NASDAQ 100 1,471.50 24.75 Gold 923 0 0.03% Oil 60.54 1.01 1.70% The dollar index down .62 overnight Today's economic calendar: MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET We'll see if any of those can keep this rocket under 1000 today. Earnings calendar: Before market opens After market closes
I'm of course kidding about the rocket...kind of. This market really wants to go higher. Why, I have no idea. Maybe the relentless pumping by the media, or the fact that every time people get short this market they get killed by some news that is better than expected, or the so tired and worn out "not as bad as expected." Case and point Intel. Their forward guidance is good for their global business, but the business for the United States is very modest. Which means we are not in as good as shape as one may thing. Point two - Goldman Sachs - who blew out the quarter. Considering the TARP money they got, the billions more from AIG because of they were a counterparty, and the ability to get money almost free from the government - who the hell couldn't make money. That doesn't mean everything is fine, nor will be anytime soon. Even though the cheerleaders on CNBC will do their very best to get everyone to shovel every hard earned dollar they have into the casino. Beware!

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Market wrap - 4:30PM

Slow day at the office today. After opening around 900, the S&P dropped to the 896 around 10.46, then rose sharply higher to hit 905 at 11.56. The index stayed positive the rest of the day and closed at 905.84. Low volume, not much action after that 1 hour and 10 minute move. Dow 8,359.49 +27.81 (0.33%) S&P 500 905.84 +4.79 (0.53%) Nasdaq 1,799.73 +6.52 (0.36%) Gold 923 +0 +0.03% Oil 59.30 -0.17 -0.29% Today by sector: Today's heatmap:
Intel's earnings report came out around 4:15 and trading was halted. Not sure about that. CNBC reporting, and showing a chart, of Intel trading higher after hours. My software was telling me trading was halted. Not sure what the deal is. UPDATE: Trading just resumed at 4:30 according to MY software, and Maria just came on and said Intel has resumed trading. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt this time. She gave the earning numbers which appeared to be better than expected, so she ASSUMED they should trade higher. Or, the person in her ear didn't tell her trading has stopped. With the incessant cheerleading and pumping from CNBC, this was a hard thing to say. YUM Brands also reported, and is trading lower after hours. SPY shares up

Since today is declared Goldman Sachs day - here is a video from Bloomberg worth watching.

Not that I am a fan of Elliot Spitzer, this is a pretty good interview just the same; Not a big fan of Charle Gasparino either, but he's right on this one, and from the CNBC cheerleader station as well;

PPI and Retail Sales - 9:03AM

PPI numbers - full report here. The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This advance followed increases of 0.2 percent in May and 0.3 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods climbed 1.9 percent in June after moving up 0.3 percent in the preceding month, and the crude goods index increased 4.6 percent following a 3.6-percent rise in May. (See table A.) The June acceleration in finished goods prices was broad based. The index for energy goods jumped 6.6 percent after advancing 2.9 percent in the prior month, prices for consumer foods increased 1.1 percent following a 1.6-percent drop in May, and the index for goods other than foods and energy rose 0.5 percent in June after edging down 0.1 percent in the previous month.
Full report here ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES June 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.1 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 9.0 percent (±0.7%) below June 2008. Total sales for the April through June 2009 period were down 9.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2009 percent change was unrevised from 0.5 percent (±0.3%). Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.7%) from May 2009, but 10.0 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 31.6 percent (±1.5%) from June 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 14.1 percent (±2.5%) from last year. The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
One more thing. Stay far away from your TV. The cheerleaders on CNBC are slobbering so bad after the Goldman earnings there is spit running out of the TV. CNBC - you are nothing but shills for the Wall Street banks - and you suck.

Goldman Sachs - Monster Quarter - 8:45AM

Shocked? Not me, I expected this. When you are in bed with the government, and their bailout money, who wouldn't make a profit? From MarketWatch By Greg Morcroft NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc said on Tuesday that its second quarter net income rose to $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, compared to $2.05 billion, or $4.58 a share a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the company to earn $3.54 a share in the quarter. Net revenues at the firm were $13.76 billion in the second quarter, compared to $9.42 billion last year. Goldman switched from a fiscal reporting schedule to a calendar schedule last year, and this year's second quarter ended in June, while the year ago data is for the period ended May 31, 2008.
We also have this: CIT Group, which gives credit to many businesses is having a hard time recently: As their chart shows, they have been dropping quite severely, but the last two days have been really bad. But, not to worry, from Bloomberg we see this - CIT Rises on ‘Active’ Talks for U.S. Aid Before Debt Maturity - really? From the article - July 14 (Bloomberg) -- CIT Group Inc. rose in European trading after the corporate lender said it’s in “active discussions” with regulators about a rescue before $1 billion of bonds mature next month. ANOTHER RESCUSE/BAILOUT? Screw that, we the taxpayers have given these damn financial companies enough money. Here's an idea - LET GOLDMAN SACHS BAIL THEIR ASS OUT. By the way, they are up over 18 percent pre-market. Investors (cough, cough) ready to jump on the government backed gravy train. Err...I mean taxpayer backed gravy train. The robbing and pillaging continues.

Pre-market - July 14, 2009

Futures up slightly on the anticipation of Goldman Sachs earnings. CIT up big because of possible government bailout. DJIA INDEX 8,286.00 27.00 S&P 500 898.20 2.60 895.50 NASDAQ 100 1,445.00 2.50 Gold 923 10 1.10% Oil 60.80 1.08 1.81% Today's economic calendar: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before market opens Today after close

Monday, July 13, 2009

Market wrap - A rocket ship to the moon - 4:10PM

Well, well, well, what did we see today? A rocket ship north thanks to Meredith Whitney upgrading the crooks at Goldman Sachs. One bank upgrade and the market takes off like a rocket on no volume. Special! Dow 8,331.68 +185.16 (2.27%) S&P 500 901.05 +21.92 (2.49%) Nasdaq 1,793.21 +37.18 (2.12%) Gold 923 +10 +1.10% Oil 0.02 -0.20 -0.33% Notable: VIX -3.41 -11.72% BKX (bank index)+2.24 +6.53% Today by sector: The banks win again! Can anyone tell me how these banks, half of which should be bankrupt (at least)are six and a half percent better than last week? Today's heatmap: Lots of green there. Must be the green shoots turning into flowers.
Today made me about as sick as I have ever been watching this casino. The futures were lower around 7:30. Once Merideth Whitney went on CNBC and talked up Goldman Sachs, the futures turned around. Once the market opened, they were up nicely, only to fall back to the 874-875 area. Then at about 10:30, the rocket finished fueling itself up and off it went. The indexes gained all day long with little to no pullback. Incredible, one bank upgrade, with not so bullish news for the rest of the economy by Whitney (13 percent expected unemployment)the entire market acts like everything is this much better than last week? I have to give it to CNBC, who used snippets of Whitney's comments all day, to pump this puppy was quite impressive. We also got Bob "the important thing is" Pisoni back from vacation to help the pump job along. I only have one thing more to say - CNBC, you are simply pathetic, and a disgrace to the investors who watch you. It is an insult to our intelligence to say the bullshit you do on a daily basis. I hope GE, who reports Friday, is forced to cut costs because of profits, or lack of, they are forced to cut your sorry asses off TV. Screw you CNBC - you suck.

Bank of America Said to Balk at Paying Backstop Fee

The criminals are at it again. From Bloomberg: July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. is trying to avoid paying billions of dollars in fees to U.S. taxpayers for guarantees against losses at Merrill Lynch & Co., saying the rescue agreement was never signed and the funding never used. Regulators contend Bank of America owes at least part of a $4 billion fee it agreed to pay in January -- even without a completed legal document -- because the company benefited from implied U.S. backing on about $118 billion of Merrill Lynch assets, such as mortgage-backed bonds, people familiar with the matter said. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank says it owes the Treasury nothing, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are confidential. Bank of America, ranked first by assets and deposits in the U.S., “got a moral commitment for insurance without tendering a check, so it appears they got something for nothing,” said Representative Brad Sherman, a California Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. “If the government takes the risk, the government needs to be paid.” Both sides are under pressure from lawmakers who questioned whether taxpayers are being adequately rewarded for propping up lenders, and why Bank of America’s January acquisition of New York-based Merrill Lynch required a publicly funded bailout. The U.S. provided the bank $20 billion in capital plus the asset guarantees to keep Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis from abandoning the takeover of money-losing Merrill, once the world’s biggest brokerage. More at link

Meredith Whitney ups Goldman Sachs - 8:55AM

Wow! Meredith Whitney on CNBC jammed the banking system up, especially Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JP Morgan. Did she go over to the dark side, or did she find out having her own firm made her find out you only give bullish ratings: From Bloomberg: U.S. Stock-Index Futures Climb; Goldman Sachs Gains on Upgrade By Roger Neill July 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock index futures advanced as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gained in early trading in New York after Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC recommended buying the shares before the bank reports earnings tomorrow. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in September climbed 0.3 percent to 877.20 at 8:20 a.m. in New York, having lost as much as 1 percent earlier.

Pre-market - July 13, 2009

Futures down slightly on this very important week for the market. Earnings season is full upon us, the Citi bankruptcy looms as something to watch. Futures as of 8:00: DJIA INDEX 8,067.00 -18.00 S&P 500 872.60 -1.70 874.50 NASDAQ 100 1,414.50 -1.50 Gold 913 -4 -0.40% Oil 59.94 +0.05 +0.08% Today's economic calendar: 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET Treasury Budget 2:00 PM E Today's earnings calendar: Before market opens in BOLD