Monday, December 23, 2013

The Creature of Jekyll Island - online

The retirement gamble, Jim Grant, Video

The retirement gamble

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Oil, links to read.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131028141516.htm U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-10/u-dot-s-dot-shale-oil-boom-may-not-last-as-fracking-wells-lack-staying-power THE FRACKING PONZI SCHEME http://www.forbes.com/sites/insead/2013/05/08/shale-oil-and-gas-the-contrarian-view/ Why America's Shale Oil Boom Could End Sooner Than You Think http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/06/13/why-americas-shale-oil-boom-could-end-sooner-than-you-think/ FRACKING WILL CREATE AN ECONOMIC CRISIS http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Historical CPI numbers and CAGR projected into future

Ok  so I'm not done.

This is all quite fascinating.  Fascinating watching tribal politics trump common sense, and even more fascinating how it trumps simple arithmetic.  When we get things such as "semantic tells" or "Manichean view" thrown in the mix we have really fell off the reservation.

Debt is good, and simply a "policy tool." Nothing to see here, move along.  LOL!

Well, it so happens, we available to us, data to support what that policy tool has done and can do.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a plethora of historical data available in what they call the CPI, or the Consumer Price Index, to show us what the costs of goods and services have cost us over a period of years, sortable, and categorized to provide the data.  Let's take a look shall we?

I went back to 1980 for the data and compared those numbers to today (2013), then projected those number into the future using the inflation target number given by the Federal Reserve, which is 2%.  The exceptions are a couple that only went back to 1995, and the one I used 1913 for obvious reasons.

I then projected to the future 25, 50, and 75 years.  I chose that number as 75 years is a nice average lifetime of a human.

Projecting from 1980 (or 1995) to 2013 you can figure the CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) using a simple formula in Excel (the BLS site allows you to search and download the table data).

Using the current 2013 price data, and the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target, we can project those values out the 25, 50, and 75 years to get an idea what things might cost in 2088.

From this data we can also see, the CAGR of these prices grew faster than the projected 2 percent the Fed is targeting (all but a couple of the example I used), which makes the 2 percent Fed number low, which many economists also believe.  And why shouldn't they, the numbers are what they are.

I chose random items we all have, use, or buy, and a couple others just for fun.




All data can be found at the BLS at; BLS CPI data or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data); FRED data

And for fun, let's take a look at those number if the Fed target inflation number is higher than their 2%.

At 3 percent:

At 4;

So debt and the resulting inflation is good.  Just a tool, nothing to see here.  Got it. Keep printing more money because more money will create more growth, or more prosperity, or more something.  That's some wild stuff right there.

Go sell your BS to someone else cause I'm not buying, I can't afford to, I can't keep up now.

As an aside, I didn't do this little experiment because of the debate in this thread.  I did this a month or so ago when some of the newer data came out.  I find this much more enlightening than listening to some MMT ((M)agic (M)oney (T)ree) screwball tell me how printing money will fix the world and the Fed insanity is a giant conspiracy theory.

No wonder this country is truly ******.

Monday, November 18, 2013

debt to the penny from the treasury


D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth

D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth

Bakken, Crude Oil, PeakOilBarrel.com, EIA report, SAGD

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/guest-post-coming-bust-great-bakken-oil-field

http://peakoilbarrel.com/

http://www.eia.gov/

More EIA info

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam-assisted_gravity_drainage

Friday, November 15, 2013

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

US oil field production - from the EIA

US oil field production - from the EIA

Wall Street Code Released - Video

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-11-04/wall-street-code-released

HFT video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEAGdwHXfLQ

Monday, November 4, 2013

Price of Silver

Check Silver prices; https://comparesilverprices.com/

Link - Why Poverty - Cartoon on political parties - SSA - wage stats for 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6niWzomA_So&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLWB0UfoChWY2gN1daubiv6A5HNQqicAxM http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2012



NY Magazine - Peterson

http://nymag.com/arts/tv/features/57763/#ixzz0c44gQfcK

Thursday, October 31, 2013

GM Bailout money, SIGTARP Report (518 pages)

http://www.autoblog.com/2013/10/29/us-treasury-reports-9-7b-loss-gm-shares/

http://www.sigtarp.gov/Quarterly%20Reports/October_29_2013_Report_to_Congress.pdf

Bruce Schneier - cyber security

https://www.schneier.com/

Mike Rogers, bathroom cam

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20131030/11223225071/rep-mike-rogers-angrily-defends-bathroom-spycam.shtml

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Friday, October 18, 2013

Tuesday, October 15, 2013


The rule - from a guy at NC

I liked this post, so I copied the "rule"

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#ER5QSdslCUcjEA3D.99

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#comment-1501314 


Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#ER5QSdslCUcjEA3D.99
Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#ER5QSdslCUcjEA3D.99
Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#OUrJiYpv4LpKIM11.99
Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#OUrJiYpv4LpKIM11.99

Friday, October 11, 2013

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

NSA


Saturday, September 28, 2013

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Crisis cost up to $14 trillion, Dallas Fed says

Crisis cost up to $14 trillion, Dallas Fed says

The financial crisis cost the U.S. economy $6 trillion to $14 trillion—and possibly twice that—along with untold costs from "special treatment" that too-big-to-fail banks received, according to an explosive new analysis from the Dallas Federal Reserve.

Nearing the five-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy that shocked the global economy, the central bank analysis takes a stark look at the costs left behind by the crisis and the ensuing bailout.
Among the lasting damages, the paper cites continuing and pervasive unemployment as well as the opportunity costs that came from $12.6 trillion in direct aid given to the financial sector.

"The 2007–09 meltdown produced a huge downshift in the path of economic output, consumption and financial wealth," the paper said. "The nation has borne additional costs arising from psychological consequences, skill atrophy from extended unemployment, a reduced set of economic opportunities and increased government intervention in the economy."
Lessons from the financial crisis of 2008
 
Jessica Bibliowicz, former Chairman & CEO of National Financial Partners, shares her reflections on the huge blow to the U.S. banking system five years ago and how she led her business back from the brink.
(Special Report: Bank from the brink: 5 years later)

All totaled, the damage comes to $6 trillion to $14 trillion, a staggering number that nearly equates to an entire year of gross domestic product.

Broken down, that translates to $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household "or the equivalent of 40 to 90 percent of one year's economic output," the paper said.

And it could be worse—a lot worse—depending on how long it takes for a full recovery to set in.
"If the effects of the crisis are permanent, the path of consumption observed since 2007 suggests that the cost of the crisis may be more than double the $6 trillion to $14 trillion estimate," the paper said.


(Read more: A financial crisis timeline)

The Dallas Fed used output-per-person totals as of mid-2013 to calculate the costs. It figured that number stood at 12 percent lower than typical recoveries over the past 50 years.
Some of the numbers the central bank branch cites are startling: a loss of 8.7 million nonfarm payroll jobs; a peak of 14.7 million unemployed, labor underutilization that remains "intractably high" and 10.6 million underemployed.

(Read more: Jobs growth misses high hopes; rate drops to 7.3%)
"A stark legacy of the recession and the lackluster labor market is reduced opportunity and deterioration captured in subjective measures of well-being," the paper said. "Since the recession's onset in December 2007, more citizens believed their income would be lower in the future than thought it would be higher. This is the first time in any recession since the 1960s that income expectations turned negative."

The U.S. fell from second to 18th on the Frasier Institute's Index of Economic Freedom ranking in 2012, a remnant, the Fed said, of the bailouts used to prop up Wall Street institutions at the center of the financial crisis.

The paper said:
Deemed "too big to fail," these financial intermediaries lacked discipline and accountability leading up to the crisis and proved largely immune to the downside of their excessive risk taking. This special treatment violated a basic tenet of American capitalism: All people and institutions have the freedom to succeed and also to fail based on the merits of their actions. In a way, the 2008–09 bailouts exacted an unfair and nontransparent tax upon the American people.

The Fed added:
Although unprecedented fiscal and monetary action in the throes of panic during 2008–09 may have prevented a full-blown depression, such intervention did not come without significant costs. Society must deal with the consequences of a swollen federal debt, an expanded Federal Reserve balance sheet and increased regulations and government intervention for years to come.

The damage from the crisis remains hard to calculate, the paper said, given the possibility that the U.S. economy may never reach its old productivity level.
The paper concluded:
Given this range of estimates, the tepid economic recovery and the collateral damage sustained, it is crucial to implement effective policies that avoid future episodes whose magnitude could exceed even the staggering costs and consequences of the most recent financial crisis.
(Read the full Dallas Fed report here.)


NSA

The Cowboy of the NSA Foreign Policy
James Clapper’s Financial War on the World Marcy Wheeler.
NSA Has Apparently Targeted SWIFT Network, Petrobras, and the French Diplomatic Network Kevin Drum
Helicopter circles US consulate in spy probe The Local
Johns Hopkins and the Case of the Missing NSA Blog Post ProPublica