Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30 release - posted 8:40

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved for the sixth consecutive month in January. The general business conditions index climbed 11 points, to 15.9. The new orders and shipments indexes posted similar increases, and the unfilled orders index rose above zero. Both the prices paid index and the prices received index rose significantly, with the latter moving above zero for the first time in more than a year. Employment indexes advanced into positive territory. Future indexes were highly optimistic; activity and employment were widely expected to improve over the next six months. Prices, however, were expected to continue to climb in the months ahead.

In a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans (see Supplemental Reports tab). Looking ahead to the next six to twelve months, 44 percent of respondents indicated that they expected to increase capital spending relative to its level in the past six to twelve months, while just 12 percent anticipated a decline. When the same question had been asked in October 2007, 42 percent of respondents had anticipated increased capital spending, while just under 19 percent had expected reductions. The most commonly cited factor behind increased investment was a need to replace IT (information technology) equipment, followed closely by a need to replace other capital goods. The most widely cited factors behind steady or decreased capital investment were low capacity utilization and low expected sales growth.

Conditions Improve for a Sixth Consecutive Month
The general business conditions index rose 11 points, to 15.9—its sixth consecutive reading above zero. One-third of respondents reported that conditions had improved in January, while 17 percent reported that conditions had deteriorated. The new orders index shot up 18 points, to 20.5, and the shipments index rose 13 points, to 21.1. After falling to -21.1 in December, the unfilled orders index rose to 2.7 this month. The delivery time index also climbed above zero, to 6.7. The inventories index, at -17.3, remained well below zero, as it has for much of the past year.

Both Prices Paid and Prices Received Now Rising
Manufacturers reported rising prices in January. The pace of input price increases accelerated, with the prices paid index rising 12 points to 32.0, its highest level in more than a year. A third of respondents said that input prices had risen over the month. The prices received index rose above zero for the first time in more than a year, climbing from -9.2 to 2.7. Employment indexes moved into positive territory after dipping below zero last month. The index for number of employees rose to 4.0, while the average workweek index rose to 5.3.

Increased Activity Widely Expected in the Months Ahead
Future indexes indicated that conditions were widely expected to improve further in the months ahead. The future general business conditions index rose to 56.0, with 63 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. The future new orders and shipments indexes advanced to similar levels, and the future unfilled orders index rose to 22.7, its highest level in several years. The future inventories index hovered just above zero, suggesting that inventory levels were expected to level off. Prices were expected to climb further”the future prices paid index rose 14 points to 54.7, and the future prices received index fell slightly, to 20.0. Future employment indexes were well above zero, an indication that employment levels were expected to rise. The capital expenditures index rose to 33.3, and the technology spending index was little changed at 13.3.

Note: Data have undergone an annual benchmark revision. All historical data have been revised using new seasonal factors.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index fell 21 points, to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted somewhat more moderate declines but also moved close to zero. Input prices picked up a bit, as the prices paid index rebounded to roughly its November level; however, the prices received index moved further into negative territory, suggesting that price increases are not being passed along. Current employment indexes slipped back into negative territory. Future indexes remained well above zero but signaled somewhat less widespread optimism than in recent months. Indexes for expected prices paid and received declined moderately but remained well above zero. In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Reports tab), manufacturers were asked about recent and expected changes in the prices paid for various categories of goods and services. Respondents predicted that prices paid for most budget categories would increase by 2 to 3 percentage points more in 2010 than in 2009. Prices paid overall were reported to have risen by 2.5 percent in 2009 and were expected to rise by 4.2 percent next year. The average respondent anticipated an increase of 2.1 percent in both wages and costs of outside services, 7.6 percent in employee benefit costs, and 3.5 percent in nonmedical insurance costs. In response to a separate question, the average respondent saw a roughly 7 percent chance that prices paid would decline by more than 2 percent; in last year’s survey, the probability of such a decline was pegged at 19 percent. Conditions Level Off The general business conditions index fell from 23.5 to just 2.6, suggesting a leveling off in conditions after four straight months of improvement. Roughly 24 percent of those surveyed in December said that conditions had improved, while 22 percent reported that conditions had deteriorated. Most of the other specific activity measures fell a bit less sharply: the new orders index slipped more than 14 points to 2.2, and the shipments measure declined by just under 7 points to 6.3. The unfilled orders index fell by more than 18 points to -21.1, its lowest level in nine months. In contrast, the index for delivery times held steady at -2.6, and the inventories index, at -18.4, was little changed for the third straight month. Manufacturers See Margins Squeezed Survey respondents faced somewhat higher input prices in December, while their selling prices declined. The prices paid index rose 9 points to 19.7, reversing a drop of similar magnitude in November and suggesting some renewed price pressures. At the same time, the prices received index slipped 6.6 points to -9.2, its lowest level since August. Employment indexes declined for the second straight month, falling below zero for the first time in a few months: the index for number of employees slipped 7 points to -5.3, and the average workweek index fell 11 points to -5.3. Manufacturers’ Optimism Ebbs Slightly; Prices Are Expected to Rise Manufacturers remained generally optimistic about the outlook for general business conditions and activity, although a bit less so than in recent months. After rising to its highest level in more than a year, the index for expected general business conditions retreated 14 points to 43.0—still a high level but the lowest since July. The forward-looking indexes for both new orders and shipments fell by almost as much but remained in the upper 30s, while the future unfilled orders index declined by a more moderate 5 points to 12.0. The index for expected delivery times edged up to zero, its highest level in more than a year, and the measure for future inventories was unchanged at 7.9. Forward-looking price indexes declined in December, after rising sharply in the preceding month: the index for future prices paid slipped nearly 8 points to 40.8, and the index for future prices received dropped about 5 points to 22.4. The index for expected number of employees reversed course in December, retreating 13 points to 17.8, while the future average workweek index was little changed at 19.7. The measure for planned capital expenditures jumped more than 9 points to 30.3, its highest level since May 2007; however, the measure for planned technology spending edged down to 13.2.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30am

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in September, following the upturn first observed in August. The general business conditions index increased 7 points, to 18.9, its highest level since late 2007. The new orders index was positive and higher than last month, while the shipments index dipped. The prices paid index rose several points to its highest level in many months, and the prices received index, while negative, inched close to zero. The index for number of employees remained in negative territory, while the average workweek index moved above zero for the first time in a year. Future indexes remained relatively high and close to their August levels, suggesting that conditions are expected to improve further in the months ahead. Indeed, the future general business conditions index reached its highest level in several years. In response to a series of supplementary questions about past and prospective changes in the selling prices of their goods, manufacturers indicated that prices had declined by 2.1 percent, on average, over the past twelve months—a sharp contrast with the rise of 4.8 percent reported in an identical survey conducted a year ago (see supplemental report). Looking ahead to the next twelve months, respondents expected prices to rise by 1.9 percent, on average, compared with last year’s expected price rise of 3.6 percent. When asked about the probability of certain specified price changes over the next twelve months, the average respondent estimated a roughly 50 percent chance that prices would remain within 2 percent of their current levels, a 39 percent chance that they would rise 2 percent or more, and a 12 percent chance that they would drop 2 percent or more. Conditions Improve for a Second Consecutive Month In September, the general business conditions index posted its third consecutive monthly increase and its second consecutive positive reading. Rising 7 points to 18.9, the index was at its highest level since November 2007, with nearly 40 percent of respondents reporting that conditions had improved in September and 20 percent reporting that conditions had worsened. Similarly, the new orders index rose 6 points to 19.8, its highest level since November 2007. The shipments index dipped 9 points to 5.3; the unfilled orders index, while still below zero, rose to -4.8. The delivery time index moved above zero for the first time in considerably more than a year, climbing 12 points to 1.2. The inventories index remained well below zero, at -25.0. Average Workweek Index Rises above Zero The indexes for both prices paid and prices received advanced in September. The prices paid index rose 6 points to 20.2, its third consecutive positive reading—a sign that input prices were generally rising. The prices received index rose 9 points, but continued to be negative, at -3.6. The index for number of employees, at -8.3, remained negative and close to last month’s level. The average workweek index rose sharply, as it did last month, climbing 12 points to 6.0, its first positive reading in a year. Continued Improvement Expected in the Months Ahead Future indexes were generally positive and near last month’s levels. The future general business conditions index rose 4 points, to 52.3, a level last reached in 2004. The future new orders and shipments indexes held steady. The future inventories index dipped 11 points to -17.9. Future price indexes were both positive and higher than in August, and future employment indexes were also positive. The capital expenditures and technology spending indexes both edged down a few points, but remained positive.

Empire State Manufacturing survey - 8:30am

Full report here For the first time in considerably more than a year, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers have improved. The general business conditions index increased 13 points, to 12.1, its highest level since November of 2007. Although the inventories index remained well below zero, the new orders and shipments indexes rose to their highest levels in many months. The prices paid index was positive, while the prices received index continued to be negative. Employment indexes were much improved from their recent low levels, although they remained below zero. Future indexes generally rose from last month and conveyed optimism about the six-month outlook; the capital expenditures index rose to its highest level in over a year. In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Report tab), manufacturers were asked to assess the degree to which certain business issues posed problems for their firms; the same questions had been asked in August 2008 and in earlier surveys. In the current survey, the cost of employee benefits was the issue most frequently identified as a major problem. A distant second was workers’ compensation, which was cited as a major problem somewhat more often than in last year’s survey, but less often than in 2007. Last year’s most widely cited concern, the cost of resources, emerged as much less of a problem in this year’s survey, ranking third. Manufacturers See Improving Conditions In August, after more than a year of negative readings, the general business conditions index rose into positive territory and reached its highest level since November 2007—a clear indication that, on balance, business conditions had improved for New York State manufacturers. Thirty percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month, while 18 percent said that conditions had deteriorated. The new orders index rose 8 points to 13.4, and the shipments index rose 3 points to 14.1. Both of these indexes were at their highest levels in more than a year. The unfilled orders index rose slightly, to -9.6. The delivery time index, at -10.6, hovered near last month’s level. The inventories index rose 14 points from a very low level in July, but remained well below zero at -22.3. Employment Indexes, though Negative, Rise After turning positive in July, the prices paid index rose a few points to 13.8. The prices received index remained below zero, falling 4 points from last month, to -12.8. Employment indexes were much improved, although they remained negative. Posting a sixth consecutive monthly increase, the index for number of employees rose 13 points to -7.5, its highest level since October of last year. Similarly, the average workweek index climbed 13 points to -6.4. Conditions Expected to Improve Further Future indexes rose significantly in August, conveying an expectation that conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead. The future general business conditions index advanced 14 points to 48.2, with 62 percent of respondents expecting conditions to be better in six months. The future new orders index rose 15 points to 46.0, and the future shipments index rose 4 points to 40.5. The future prices paid index climbed 6 points to 31.9, its highest level since late last year, while the future prices received index rose 11 points to enter positive territory for the first time since January. Future employment indexes were positive and higher than in July, suggesting that employment is expected to rise. The capital expenditures index advanced 16 points to 18.1, its highest level in over a year, and the technology spending index rose 14 points to 14.9. More at link, including charts

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30AM

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers were flat in July. The general business conditions index increased to a level close to zero, rising 9 points, to -0.6. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time in several months, and the shipments index also climbed into positive territory. The inventories index slipped to a record-low -36.5. The prices paid index rose above zero for the first time since November, while the prices received index held below zero. Employment indexes remained well below zero. Future indexes continued to be relatively optimistic about the six-month outlook, but were somewhat less buoyant than in June. The capital spending index fell several points, but remained above zero. In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Report tab), the median respondent indicated that total sales had fallen 15 percent from the first half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, and that the number of employees had decreased 10 percent. Declines for the full year were expected to be of the same respective magnitudes. The same questions were asked in July 2008; in that survey, sales had been seen as rising 5 percent, with employment levels being little changed. When asked if they had recently modified their production plans for the second half of 2009, close to 63 percent of respondents reported that they had scaled back plans, while just 21 percent indicated that they had increased them. This result reflects a much more negative assessment than what was reported in last July’s survey. In response to an additional set of questions new to this survey, manufacturers generally reported little effect thus far from the economic stimulus package. General Business Conditions Index Rises, Holds around Zero. The general business conditions index rose several points in July, hovering around zero for the first time since last summer, at -0.6—suggesting that conditions neither worsened nor improved over the month. Twenty-three percent observed that conditions improved, less than the 28 percent reporting so in June, while 24 percent said that conditions worsened, well below the 38 percent who saw deteriorating conditions in June. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time since September 2008, climbing from -8.2 to 5.9. The shipments index rose similarly, from -4.8 to 11.0, its highest level in a year. The unfilled orders index held steady at -12.5. The delivery time index fell 4 points, to -14.6, and the inventories index declined 11 points, to -36.5, a record low. Input Prices Resume Increase After several months of readings below zero, the prices paid index rose 16 points, to 10.4, the first positive value since November 2008, indicating that input prices are once again on the upswing. The prices received index remained negative, inching up 4points, to -8.3. Employment indexes remained negative and near June readings. The number of employees index was -20.8, and the average workweek index was -19.8. Outlook Remains Favorable The six-month outlook remained favorable in July, although future indexes were somewhat lower than last month. The future general business conditions index fell 14 points, but at 34.0 was well above the very low levels of earlier this year. The future new orders and shipments indexes also declined similarly. The future prices paid index rose 16 points, to 26.0, while the future prices received index held just below zero. Future employment indexes were positive. The capital expenditures index slipped 9 points, to 2.1, while the technology spending index held steady at 1.0.

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Contrary to what the talking heads on TV say, this might, and I say might, be better, but far from "green shoots." Until we see job GROWTH, this is far from over, or to think it is getting better. Less worse is NOT better. Invest at your own risk.