Monday, September 21, 2009

Leading Indicators - 10:00am

Full report here Released: Monday, September 21, 2009 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in August, following a 0.9 percent gain in July, and a 0.8 percent rise in June. Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs. Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table. "Since reaching a peak in July 2007, the LEI fell for twenty months – the longest downtrend since the mid 1970s – but it has been rising since April and its gains have become very widespread," says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The six-month growth rate of the LEI continues to accelerate. At the same time, the downtrend in the coincident economic index, measuring current economic activity, seems to be stabilizing, with the index flat so far this quarter." Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI has risen for five consecutive months and the coincident economic index has stopped falling. Taken together, this suggests that the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain." The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in August, following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.4 percent decline in June. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in August, following a 0.5 percent decline in July, and a 0.9 percent decline in June. The next release is scheduled for Thursday, October 22, 2009 at 10 A.M. ET. Professional Contacts at The Conference Board: Ken Goldstein: 212-339-0331 Indicators Program: 212-339-0330 Media Contacts: Frank Tortorici: +1 212 339 0231 Email:

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