Business inventories - 10:00am

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2009, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713 CB09-118 John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703 Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES June 2009 Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent (±0.2%) from May 2009 and down 18.0 percent (±0.5%) from June 2008. Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,350.0 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from May 2009 and down 9.8 percent (±0.4%) from June 2008. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.38. The June 2008 ratio was 1.26. Full report here The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for July is scheduled to be released September 15, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT. For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at . This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986). * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. (p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. 1 Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. 2 Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. 3 Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. 4 The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products. Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.