Jobless claims - 8:30

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Dec. 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 432,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 454,000. The 4-week moving average was 460,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 465,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent for the week ending Dec. 19, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 3.8 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 19 was 4,981,000, a decrease of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,038,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,101,000, a decrease of 122,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,223,250. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.621 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 557,155 in the week ending Dec. 26, a decrease of 8,088 from the previous week. There were 717,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.9 percent during the week ending Dec. 19, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,090,652, a decrease of 254,815 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.4 percent and the volume was 4,572,637. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Dec. 12. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,756 in the week ending Dec. 19, a decrease of 390 from the prior week. There were 2,274 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 123 from the preceding week. There were 26,422 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 12, a decrease of 49 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 37,526, an increase of 1,378 from the prior week. States reported 4,448,914 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Dec. 12, an increase of 191,669 from the prior week. There were 1,567,930 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 12 were in Alaska (7.4 percent), Oregon (6.1), Puerto Rico (5.8), Wisconsin (5.6), Michigan (5.5), Idaho (5.4), Montana (5.4), Nevada (5.4), Pennsylvania (5.4), and California (5.3). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 19 were in Michigan (+8,382), California (+7,317), Florida (+3,179), Iowa (+2,820), and Missouri (+1,628), while the largest decreases were in Tennessee (-2,972), Illinois (-2,923), Pennsylvania (-2,875), Georgia (-2,684), and North Carolina (-1,771). More at link with formatted tables

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NOTE:See the red box? That is not reported, but very significant. That figure represents Emergency Unemployment Compensation, or in other words, people on extended benefits or some other form of aid that would have previously ran out if not for government extensions. That number by the way, is the HIGHEST in history. Green shoots? I think not.

Crude oil report - 10:30

Full report here with formatted tables. Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending December 25, 2009 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.9 million barrels per day during the week ending December 25, 102 thousand barrels per day above the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 80.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 3.7 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up 320 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 7.9 million barrels per day, 1.6 million barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 753 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 237 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 326.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.1 million barrels last week, but are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million barrels per day, down by 0.2 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 1.1 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 2.8 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 3.7 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Chicago PMI - 9:45

From MarketWatch Chicago purchasing index reaches 16-month high WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- More businesses in the Chicago region were expanding in December than at any time in the past 16 months, based on the latest data from the Chicago purchasing managers index. The business activity index rose to 60.0% from 56.1% in November, according to media reports. It's the highest reading since August 2008 and was stronger than economists had forecast. The index fell as low as 31.4% in January. Readings over 50% indicate more firms said business is getting better than said it was worsening. The index was released Wednesday after U.S. markets opened by the Institute for Supply Management of Chicago.

S-P Case-Shiller HPI - 9:00

Full report here Home Prices Still Improving but at a Moderating Pace Entering the Fourth Quarter of 2009 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices New York, December 29, 2009 – Data through October 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately nine months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009. More at link with formatted tables

Jobless claims - 8:30

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Dec. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 452,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 480,000. The 4-week moving average was 465,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 468,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.9 percent for the week ending Dec. 12, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.9 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 12 was 5,076,000, a decrease of 127,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,203,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,233,000, a decrease of 90,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,323,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.673 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 561,902 in the week ending Dec. 19, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week. There were 719,615 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.1 percent during the week ending Dec. 12, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,385,774, an increase of 193,030 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.4 percent and the volume was 4,594,820. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Dec. 5. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,117 in the week ending Dec. 12, an increase of 26 from the prior week. There were 2,150 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 261 from the preceding week. There were 26,320 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 5, an increase of 142 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 36,224, a decrease of 784 from the prior week. States reported 4,368,107 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Dec. 5, an increase of 141,807 from the prior week. There were 1,482,317 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include first, second, and third tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 5 were in Puerto Rico (6.4 percent), Oregon (5.9), Pennsylvania (5.6), Wisconsin (5.6), Alaska (5.4), Washington (5.2), Idaho (5.1), Nevada (5.1), California (4.9), Michigan (4.9), and North Carolina (4.9). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 12 were in Puerto Rico (+1,260), Louisiana (+1,123), Nebraska (+941), Maine (+728), and the District of Columbia (+696), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-14,374), Pennsylvania (-14,302), New York (-13,432), Georgia (-11,142), and Wisconsin (-10,650).

Durable goods - 8:30

Full report here Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders November 2009 New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $166.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second monthly increase in the last three months. This followed a 0.6 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased slightly. Computers and electronic products, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 3.7 percent to $25.7 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $175.9 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent October increase. Machinery, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $22.6 billion. Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down fourteen consecutive months, decreased $4.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $724.5 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, down thirteen of the last fourteen months, had the largest decrease, $5.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $418.1 billion. Inventories Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, down ten of the last eleven months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $303.6 billion. This followed a slight increase in October. Computers and electronic products, down eleven consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $42.8 billion. Capital Goods Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $1.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $53.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $57.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $3.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $413.9 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $132.4 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in November increased $0.7 billion or 8.5 percent to $9.2 billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $10.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $135.6 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $20.2 billion. Revised October Data Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $360.7 billion (revised from $360.5 billion); shipments, $369.5 billion (revised from $368.0 billion); unfilled orders, $729.4 billion (revised from $730.8 billion); and total inventories, $494.2 billion (revised from $493.0 billion).

New home sales - 10:00

New home sales NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN NOVEMBER 2009 Sales of new one-family houses in November 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.3 percent (±11.0%) below the revised October rate of 400,000 and is 9.0 percent (±15.3%)* below the November 2008 estimate of 390,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2009 was $217,400; the average sales price was $280,300. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 235,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate.

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This was a horrible number. They reported on TV this missed estimates by 11 percent. Market pretty much yawned.

S&P 50% Fib retracment - Today - 9:40

Key area here just before Christmas. Where do we go from here?

Personal Income and Outlays - 8:30

Full report here PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: NOVEMBER 2009 Personal income increased $49.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)increased $54.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.9 billion, or 0.5 percent. In October, personal income increased $33.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $50.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $63.5 billion, or 0.6 percent, based on revised estimates. Real disposable income increased 0.2 percent in November, the same increase as in October. Real PCE increased 0.2 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in October. More at link with formatted tables

Existing home sales - 10:00

Full report here Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit Washington, December 22, 2009 Existing-home sales rose again in November as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.” An NAR practitioner survey2 shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009. NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.” Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October. Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply. “Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.” For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges. The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area. Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008. In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008. Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

GDP & Corporate profits - 8:30

Full report here EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2009 BEA 09-57 * See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (THIRD ESTIMATE) CORPORATE PROFITS: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (REVISED ESTIMATE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in exports, in private inventory investment, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending. _______________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005)dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. _______________ Motor vehicle output added 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, 0.1 percentage point less than the second estimate; this index increased 0.5 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the second. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the second. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 5.9 percent,compared with a decrease of 9.6 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 18.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 17.3 percent. Equipment and software increased 1.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 18.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 23.3 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 17.8 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.1 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 21.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 8.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second. National defense increased 8.4 percent, compared with an increase of 14.0 percent. Nondefense increased 7.0 percent, compared with an increase of 6.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.9 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.69 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $139.2 billion in the third quarter, following decreases of $160.2 billion in the second quarter and $113.9 billion in the first. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the second. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.3 percent in the second. Gross national product Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent in the second. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $25.7 billion in the third quarter after decreasing $7.4 billion in the second; in the third quarter, receipts increased $15.7 billion, and payments decreased $10.0 billion. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 2.6 percent, or $90.9 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $14,242.1 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP decreased 0.8 percent, or $26.8 billion. Revisions The "third" estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.6 percentage point, or $17.3 billion, lower than the second estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, and to personal consumption expenditures. Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP................... 3.5 2.8 2.2 Current-dollar GDP......... 4.3 3.3 2.6 Gross domestic purchases price index. 1.6 1.4 1.3 Corporate Profits Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $132.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $43.8 billion in the second quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $28.4 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $30.5 billion in the second. Taxes on corporate income increased $15.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $35.6 billion in the second. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $117.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion in the second. Dividends decreased $6.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $62.1 billion; current- production undistributed profits increased $123.5 billion, compared with an increase of $70.3 billion. Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $82.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $28.5 billion in the second. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $27.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $29.8 billion in the second. In the third quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real value added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected decreases in both unit nonlabor and labor costs that more than offset a decrease in unit prices. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $22.0 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $14.6 billion in the second. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The third-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments. Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of both financial and nonfinancial corporations increased in the third quarter. The increase in nonfinancial corporations reflected increases in utilities, information, "other" nonfinancial, retail trade, and transportation and warehousing that were partly offset by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing. Within manufacturing, the largest decrease was in “other” durable goods, and the largest increase was in motor vehicles. Profits before tax increased $157.9 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $90.6 billion in the second. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment increased $9.7 billion in the third quarter (from -$128.6 billion to -$118.9 billion), compared with an increase of $16.3 billion in the second. The inventory valuation adjustment decreased $35.2 billion (from $18.1 billion to -$17.1 billion), compared with a decrease of $63.0 billion. * * * BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- January 29, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Advance Estimate)

Filly Fed Leading Indicators - 10:00

Full report here Released: Thursday, December 17, 2009 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent gain in October, and a 1.2 percent rise in September. Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs. Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table. Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "The Conference Board LEI has been on an uptrend for more than half a year and it is now slightly higher than its latest peak in July 2007. Improving financial conditions, labor market indicators, and housing permits have helped the LEI continue its gains in November. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed somewhat in recent months." Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The indicators point to a bright new year. The U.S. LEI increased for the eighth consecutive month. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. also increased in November. Employment largely held steady, making this the first month since December 2007 that it did not make a negative contribution to the index." The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S.rose 0.2 percent in November, following no change in October, and a 0.1 percent decline in September. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent decline in October, and a 0.5 percent decline in September. The next release is scheduled for January 21, 2010 at 10 A.M. ET. Professional Contacts at The Conference Board: Ken Goldstein: 212-339-0331 Indicators Program: 212-339-0330 Media Contacts: Frank Tortorici: +1 212 339 0231 Email: indicators@conference-board.org

Jobless claims - 8:30

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Dec. 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 480,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 473,000. The 4-week moving average was 467,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average of 472,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.9 percent for the week ending Dec. 5, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.9 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 5 was 5,186,000, an increase of 5,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,181,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,318,250, a decrease of 106,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,425,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.722 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,344 in the week ending Dec. 12, a decrease of 107,393 from the previous week. There were 629,867 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.9 percent during the week ending Dec. 5, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,176,122, a decrease of 222,989 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.3 percent and the volume was 4,378,273. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Nov. 28. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,081 in the week ending Dec. 5, an increase of 340 from the prior week. There were 2,390 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 1,007 from the preceding week. There were 25,903 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Nov. 28, an increase of 1,764 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 36,441, an increase of 2,689 from the prior week. States reported 4,226,300 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Nov. 28, an increase of 45,922 from the prior week. There were 994,188 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include first, second, and third tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Nov. 28 were in Wisconsin (6.4 percent), Oregon (6.3), Alaska (6.2), Nevada (5.5), Puerto Rico (5.4), Michigan (5.3), Pennsylvania (5.3), Arkansas (5.2), Idaho (5.2), North Carolina (5.2), and Washington (5.2). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 5 were in California (+28,358), Georgia (+19,454), North Carolina (+18,500), Pennsylvania (+17,372), and New York (+16,344), while the largest decreases were in Kansas (-3,803), Kentucky (-2,048), Idaho (-979), Iowa (-917), and Puerto Rico (-892). More at link with formatted tables

Housing Starts - 8:30

Full report here NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN NOVEMBER 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for November 2009: BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000. This is 6.0 percent (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 551,000, but is 7.3 percent (±1.8%) below the November 2008 estimate of 630,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 473,000; this is 5.3 percent (±1.1%) above the revised October figure of 449,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 86,000 in November. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 8.9 percent (±10.2%)* above the revised October estimate of 527,000, but is 12.4 percent (±9.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 655,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 482,000; this is 2.1 percent (±9.2%)* above the revised October figure of 472,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 83,000. HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000. This is 8.7 percent (±13.7%)* above the revised October estimate of 745,000, but is 25.3 percent (±10.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 1,084,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 524,000; this is unchanged (±11.7%)*compared with the revised October figure. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 270,000.

CPI - 8:30

Full report here Consumer Price Index - November 2009 On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months the index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment, the first positive 12-month change since February 2009. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was due to a 4.1 percent increase in the energy index. The index for gasoline rose sharply and the indexes for electricity, fuel oil, and natural gas also increased, creating the fourth consecutive rise in the energy index and the largest increase since August. In contrast, the index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in November, after ten consecutive monthly increases. Declines in shelter indexes offset increases in the indexes for new and used motor vehicles, medical care, airline fares, and tobacco. The food index rose slightly in November. As in October, the food away from home index rose modestly while the index for food at home was unchanged. Within the latter, three grocery store food groups posted increases while three declined. More at link with formatted tables

Housing market index report - 1:00

Full report here Builder Confidence Edges Down in December December 15, 2009 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes receded one point to 16 in December as continued weakness in the economy and job markets weighed on consumers’ potential home buying plans, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. “From an affordability standpoint, rarely has there been a better time in history to purchase a home, thanks to record low interest rates, attractive prices, and of course the recent extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit,” said Joe Robson, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “However, builders are not seeing the full impact of these conditions on buyer demand, partly because awareness of the latest incentives is still building, and partly because of concerns about job security and other economic woes.” “As we anticipated, this is shaping up to be a bumpy recovery period for the housing market,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While some families may be just starting to factor the expanded tax credit into their potential home buying plans, many are hesitating because of the poor economy. At the same time, tight lending conditions for both consumers and home builders continue to pose considerable obstacles on the road to a sustained housing and economic recovery.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The December HMI fell one point to 16, its lowest point since June of this year. Two out of three component indexes also were down, with a one-point decline to 16 registered for current sales conditions and a two-point decline to 26 registered for sales expectations in the next six months. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged for a third consecutive month, at 13. Regionally, December’s HMI results were somewhat mixed. The Northeast posted a three point gain to 23, while the West posted a one-point gain to 19, the South registered no change at 17, and the Midwest posted a two-point decline, to 12. Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed online at: www.nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at: www.housingeconomics.com.

Santelli vs. Liesman and the PPI - 9:25

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index fell 21 points, to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted somewhat more moderate declines but also moved close to zero. Input prices picked up a bit, as the prices paid index rebounded to roughly its November level; however, the prices received index moved further into negative territory, suggesting that price increases are not being passed along. Current employment indexes slipped back into negative territory. Future indexes remained well above zero but signaled somewhat less widespread optimism than in recent months. Indexes for expected prices paid and received declined moderately but remained well above zero. In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Reports tab), manufacturers were asked about recent and expected changes in the prices paid for various categories of goods and services. Respondents predicted that prices paid for most budget categories would increase by 2 to 3 percentage points more in 2010 than in 2009. Prices paid overall were reported to have risen by 2.5 percent in 2009 and were expected to rise by 4.2 percent next year. The average respondent anticipated an increase of 2.1 percent in both wages and costs of outside services, 7.6 percent in employee benefit costs, and 3.5 percent in nonmedical insurance costs. In response to a separate question, the average respondent saw a roughly 7 percent chance that prices paid would decline by more than 2 percent; in last year’s survey, the probability of such a decline was pegged at 19 percent. Conditions Level Off The general business conditions index fell from 23.5 to just 2.6, suggesting a leveling off in conditions after four straight months of improvement. Roughly 24 percent of those surveyed in December said that conditions had improved, while 22 percent reported that conditions had deteriorated. Most of the other specific activity measures fell a bit less sharply: the new orders index slipped more than 14 points to 2.2, and the shipments measure declined by just under 7 points to 6.3. The unfilled orders index fell by more than 18 points to -21.1, its lowest level in nine months. In contrast, the index for delivery times held steady at -2.6, and the inventories index, at -18.4, was little changed for the third straight month. Manufacturers See Margins Squeezed Survey respondents faced somewhat higher input prices in December, while their selling prices declined. The prices paid index rose 9 points to 19.7, reversing a drop of similar magnitude in November and suggesting some renewed price pressures. At the same time, the prices received index slipped 6.6 points to -9.2, its lowest level since August. Employment indexes declined for the second straight month, falling below zero for the first time in a few months: the index for number of employees slipped 7 points to -5.3, and the average workweek index fell 11 points to -5.3. Manufacturers’ Optimism Ebbs Slightly; Prices Are Expected to Rise Manufacturers remained generally optimistic about the outlook for general business conditions and activity, although a bit less so than in recent months. After rising to its highest level in more than a year, the index for expected general business conditions retreated 14 points to 43.0—still a high level but the lowest since July. The forward-looking indexes for both new orders and shipments fell by almost as much but remained in the upper 30s, while the future unfilled orders index declined by a more moderate 5 points to 12.0. The index for expected delivery times edged up to zero, its highest level in more than a year, and the measure for future inventories was unchanged at 7.9. Forward-looking price indexes declined in December, after rising sharply in the preceding month: the index for future prices paid slipped nearly 8 points to 40.8, and the index for future prices received dropped about 5 points to 22.4. The index for expected number of employees reversed course in December, retreating 13 points to 17.8, while the future average workweek index was little changed at 19.7. The measure for planned capital expenditures jumped more than 9 points to 30.3, its highest level since May 2007; however, the measure for planned technology spending edged down to 13.2.

PPI - 8:30

Full report here PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - NOVEMBER 2009 The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a 0.3-percent advance in October and a 0.6-percent decrease in September. In November, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods climbed 1.4 percent, and the crude goods index rose 5.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended November 2009, their first 12-month increase since November 2008. (See table A.) SEE TABLE A AT LINK Stage-of-Processing Analysis Finished goods About three-fourths of the November advance in the finished goods index can be traced to higher prices for energy goods, which jumped 6.9 percent. The indexes for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods also contributed to the finished goods increase, both rising 0.5 percent. Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods climbed 6.9 percent in November after advancing 1.6 percent a month earlier. About sixty percent of the broad-based November rise can be attributed to a 14.2-percent surge in gasoline prices. Increases in the indexes for liquefied petroleum gas and home heating oil also were major factors in the finished energy goods advance. (See table 2.) Finished core: The index for finished goods less foods and energy moved up 0.5 percent in November, its largest increase since a 0.5-percent gain in October 2008. Leading the November advance, the index for light motor trucks jumped 4.2 percent. Higher cigarette prices also contributed to the rise in the finished core index. Finished foods: The index for finished consumer foods advanced 0.5 percent in November, its second consecutive monthly increase. Over sixty percent of the November rise can be traced to higher prices for fresh and dry vegetables, which climbed 8.7 percent. Intermediate goods The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components rose 1.4 percent in November, its fourth straight monthly advance. Accounting for about three-fourths of the broad-based November increase, prices for intermediate energy goods climbed 5.4 percent. The indexes for both intermediate goods less foods and energy and for intermediate foods and feeds also contributed to this advance, rising 0.3 and 0.7 percent, respectively. On a 12-month basis, prices for intermediate goods fell 1.6 percent in November. This is the fourth consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines following a record 15.2-percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009. (See table B.) Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods rose 5.4 percent in November, its second consecutive monthly increase. A major factor in the November advance was an 18.8-percent surge in jet fuel prices. The indexes for gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas also contributed significantly to higher intermediate energy goods prices. (See table 2). Intermediate core: Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy increased 0.3 percent in November, their fifth increase in the last six months. The index for basic organic chemicals led the November advance, rising 4.3 percent. Higher prices for medicinal and botanical chemicals also were a factor in the intermediate core increase. Intermediate foods: The index for intermediate foods and feeds moved up 0.7 percent in November following two consecutive monthly declines. About forty percent of this advance can be attributed to prices for pork, which climbed 6.4 percent. Crude goods The Producer Price Index for Crude Materials for Further Processing increased 5.7 percent in November. For the 3-month period ending in November, crude material prices rose 9.1 percent after advancing 4.4 percent in the 3 months ending in August. In November, monthly increases of 12.2 percent in the index for crude energy materials and 2.6 percent for prices of crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs outweighed a 0.8-percent decrease in the index for crude nonfood materials less energy. (See table B.) Crude energy: The index for crude energy materials increased 12.2 percent in November. From August to November, this index rose 15.0 percent compared with a 12.6-percent rise in the 3 months ending in August. Accounting for about two-thirds of the monthly November increase, the index for natural gas jumped 25.5 percent. Higher prices for both crude petroleum and coal also contributed to the advance in the crude energy materials index. (See table 2.) Crude foods: Prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rose 2.6 percent in November. This index moved up 5.8 percent in the most recent 3-month period compared with a 7.1-percent decline in the previous 3-month period. In November, over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the crude foods index can be attributed to a 25.6-percent surge in prices for slaughter hogs. An advance in the fluid milk index also was a significant factor in the rise for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs. SEE TABLE B AT LINK Services Analysis Trade industries: The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Trade Industries moved up 1.3 percent in November after no change in the previous month. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The November increase was led by a 36.5-percent rise in the margin index for gasoline stations. Higher margins received by merchant wholesalers of durable goods and general merchandise stores also contributed to the advance in the total trade industries index. Transportation and warehousing industries: The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Transportation and Warehousing Industries rose 0.5 percent in November, its second consecutive monthly increase. About seventy percent of the November advance can be traced to a 1.8-percent rise in prices received by the air transportation industry group. The indexes for long-distance general freight trucking (by the truckload) and specialized freight trucking also moved up in November. Traditional service industries: The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Traditional Service Industries declined 0.1 percent in November after advancing 0.5 percent in October. Two-thirds of this decline can be attributed to prices received by general and medical surgical hospitals, which fell 0.5 percent. The industry indexes for non-casino hotels and motels and for passenger car rental also decreased in November. See link for formatted tables

Business inventories - 10:00

Full report here MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES October 2009 Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, up 1.1 percent (±0.3%) from September 2009, but down 8.2 percent (±0.5%) from October 2008. Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,305.4 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.1%) from September 2009, but down 12.6 percent (±0.3%) from October 2008. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of October was 1.30. The October 2008 ratio was 1.37. The scheduled release dates for 2010 are as follows: January 14, February 11, March 12, April 14, May 14, June 11, July 14, August 13, September 14, October 15, November 15, December 14.