Market wrap - 4:45 PM

Pretty uneventful day on the street, except for the dollar getting whacked, hitting a yearly low. Ben says - not to worry - I assume. Ok Ben. Dow 9,154.46 +83.74 (0.92%) S&P 500 987.48 +0.73 0.07% Nasdaq 1,978.50 -5.80 (-0.29%) Gold 956 +19 +1.97% Oil 69.04 2.51 3.77% Today by sector: Today's heatmap:

Chicago PMI - June

Full report here Highlights * According to the Institute of Supply Management-Chicago and Kingsbury International, Ltd., the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased to 39.9 in June from 34.9 in May. That was better than the consensus estimate of 39.0 and above the 6-month average of 35.6. * The June number improved month-to-month, aided by an uptick in new orders, which jumped to 41.6 from 37.3. In fact, increases were seen in every component index, although some increases didn't necessarily imply encouraging things. * The inventories index went up to 34.2 from 31.5 and prices paid increased to 36.3 from 29.8. * Separately, production improved to 39.3 from 38.1, order backlogs increased to 37.6 from 26.3, and employment edged up to 28.9 from 25.0. * The full report is available at www.kingbiz.com Key Factors * A reading below 50 still connotes a contraction in manufacturing activity in this region, although the uptick from May implies the rate of contraction has slowed. * This survey was better than expected, but one needs to be careful not to extrapolate too much encouragement from it just yet knowing that it follows on the heels of a very problematic period for the auto industry, which is closely linked to the Chicago region. In other words, it could simply mark a temporary bounce from a very depressed situation. Big Picture * The Chicago PMI has little overall economic value, and is only watched by the financial markets because it is usually released one day in advance of the similar national ISM manufacturing survey. A significant move in this regional survey will therefore sometimes be seen as having predictive value for the ISM index.

GDP - 8:31am

Full report here National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2009 (Advance Estimate) Comprehensive Revision: 1929 Through First Quarter 2009 Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009, (that is, from the first quarter to the second), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 6.4 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2009. ______________ BOX.-- The estimates released today reflect the results of the comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). More information on the revision is available on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov/national/an1.htm, including links to an article in the March 2009 issue of the Survey of Current Business that discussed the changes in definitions and presentation that have been implemented in the revision and to an article in the May Survey that described the changes in statistical methods. The September Survey will contain an article that describes the results of the revision in detail. The Web site also contains FAQs and other information about the revision. ______________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. ______________ The decrease in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The much smaller decrease in real GDP in the second quarter than in the first primarily reflected much smaller decreases in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in private inventory investment, upturns in federal government spending and in state and local government spending, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a much smaller decrease in imports and a downturn in PCE. Motor vehicle output added 0.20 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.69 percentage points from the first-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.06 percentage point to the first-quarter change. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in the first. Real personal consumption expenditures decreased 1.2 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent in the first. Durable goods decreased 7.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.9 percent. Nondurable goods decreased 2.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent. Services increased 0.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 8.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 39.2 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures decreased 8.9 percent, compared with a decrease of 43.6 percent. Equipment and software decreased 9.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 36.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 29.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 38.2 percent. Real exports of goods and services decreased 7.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 29.9 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services decreased 15.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 36.4 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 10.9 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.3 percent in the first. National defense increased 13.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.1 percent. Nondefense increased 6.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.5 percent. The change in real private inventories subtracted 0.83 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 2.36 percentage points from the first-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $141.1 billion in the second quarter, following decreases of $113.9 billion in the first quarter and of $37.4 billion in the fourth. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- decreased 0.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 4.1 percent in the first. More at link

---

The futures dropped on this report. The revisions were not so good.

Pre-market - July 31, 2009

Futures up before the oh so important GDP numbers come out at 8:30: DJIA INDEX 9,136.00 46.00 S&P 500 986.40 4.20 NASDAQ 100 1,613.00 6.25 Gold 937 8 0.82% Oil 67.10 0.24 0.36% Today's economic calendar: GDP 8:30 AM ET Employment Cost Index 8:30 AM ET Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET Over 60 earning reports due today

Market wrap - 4:15

What looked like a huge up day, the market pulled back late in the day. Dow 9,154.46 +83.74 (0.92%) S&P 500 986.74 +11.59 (1.19%) Nasdaq 1,984.30 +16.54 (0.84%) Gold 937 +8 +0.82% Oil 66.71 3.59 5.66% Today by sector: Today's heatmap:

Jobless claims - 8:35AM

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 584,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 559,000. The 4-week moving average was 559,000, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average of 567,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 18, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 18 was 6,197,000, a decrease of 54,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,251,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,416,250, a decrease of 131,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,548,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.497 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 507,464 in the week ending July 25, a decrease of 78,111 from the previous week. There were 376,123 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending July 18, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,060,671, a decrease of 196,289 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4 percent and the volume was 3,208,848. Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 11. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,691 in the week ending July 18, a decrease of 343 from the prior week. There were 2,061initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 173 from the preceding week. There were 18,717 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending July 11, an increase of 256 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 29,932, an increase of 834 from the prior week. States reported 2,656,879 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending July 11, an increase of 24,518 from the prior week. There were 127,438 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 11 were in Puerto Rico (7.3 percent), Michigan (7.2), Oregon (6.7), Pennsylvania (6.4), Nevada (6.2), Wisconsin (6.1), Connecticut (5.6), New Jersey (5.6), Arkansas (5.5), California (5.5), North Carolina (5.5), and South Carolina (5.5). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 18 were in California (+4,290), Michigan (+3,654), Florida (+3,291), Connecticut (+749), and Indiana (+526), while the largest decreases were in New York (-22,052), Wisconsin (-6,791), Missouri (-6,529), Pennsylvania (-6,420), and Ohio (-5,062).

Pre-market - July 30, 2009 - 7:40AM

Futures up a little this morning: DJIA INDEX 9,112.00 65.00 S&P 500 982.90 8.00 NASDAQ 100 1,610.50 9.75 Gold 930 -12 -1.27% Oil 64.18 0.89 1.40% Today's economic calendar: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET Around 350 earnings reports today - too many to list

Durable goods orders - 8:35AM

Full report here Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2009 New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $4.1 billion or 2.5 percent to $158.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed two consecutive monthly increases including a 1.3 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $5.3 billion or 12.8 percent to $36.5 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $168.3 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent May decrease. Computers and electronic products, down five of the last six months, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $27.4 billion. Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down nine consecutive months, decreased $6.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $740.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, down nine consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $5.9 billion or 1.3 percent to $433.3 billion. Inventories Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, down six consecutive months, decreased $3.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $318.8 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent May decrease. Computers and electronic products, down six consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 1.7 percent to $44.8 billion. Capital Goods Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $1.8 billion or 3.4 percent to $51.3 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $55.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $4.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $424.8 billion. Inventories decreased $0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $140.6 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $3.4 billion or 28.3 percent to $8.6 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 4.3 percent to $10.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $142.2 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $20.2 billion. Revised May Data Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $346.9 billion (revised from $347.9 billion); shipments, $352.9 billion (revised from $353.3 billion); unfilled orders, $746.7 billion (revised from $747.3 billion); and total inventories, $512.8 billion (revised from $513.3 billion).

Pre-market - July 29, 2009

Futures down slightly today at 8:13: DJIA INDEX 9,011.00 -39.00 S&P 500 970.80 -5.10 NASDAQ 100 1,596.25 -5.25 Gold 942 -15 -1.53% Oil 65.63 -1.65 -2.45% Today's economic calenar: MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Beige Book 2:00 PM ET Around 280 earning reports today

Market wrap - 5:15

What looked like a possible large downward move today, the market rallied and finish mixed, but pretty much flat. Dow 9,096.72 -11.79 (-0.13%) S&P 500 979.62 -2.56 (-0.26%) Nasdaq 1,975.51 +7.62 (0.39%) Gold 942 -15 -1.53% Oil 66.66 -1.15 -1.69% Today be sector: Today's heatmap:

Investor confidence Index - 10:50AM

Investor Confidence Index Rises from 115.8 to 119.4 in July Boston, July 28, 2009 – State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), today released the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for July 2009. Global Investor Confidence rose by 3.6 points to 119.4 from a revised June level of 115.8. Across the regions, the confidence of North American institutional investors increased significantly from 113.8 to 120.5 while European investor confidence rose even more swiftly from 95.9 to 104.6. The confidence of Asian investors rose as well, but only by 1.9 points to 94.2. Developed through State Street Global Markets’ research partnership, State Street Associates, by Harvard University professor Ken Froot and State Street Associates Director Paul O’Connell, the State Street Investor Confidence Index measures investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index is based on financial theory that assigns precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite, or the willingness of investors to allocate their portfolios to equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to devote to equities, the greater their risk appetite or confidence. “The index results strongly reflect increasing investor strategies designed with a view that the global recession will wane more rapidly than many had feared,” commented Froot. “Investors are now adding risk to their portfolios at an impressive rate, faster than we have seen in several years. In fact, this is the highest level the ICI Global index has reached since mid 2004. That is an impressive turnaround over last October, when the ICI Global reached its lowest-ever-recorded level of 82.1. Note the marked contrast with Consumer Confidence, which remains more focused on lagging unemployment.” “European confidence is much stronger this month, partly because of the concerns around the US seeming to abate, but also because the contagion that might have brought down their own financial institutions seems to be dissipating fast,” added O’Connell. “Asia has seen less variation in expected growth rates than the West and confidence there continues to strengthen, although there was never such an Asian wholesale fear of risk. Full report here

Consumer confidence - 10:45

Full report here The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™ Retreats Again July 28, 2009 The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had retreated in June, declined further in July. The Index now stands at 46.6 (1985=100), down from 49.3 in June. The Present Situation Index decreased to 23.4 from 25.0 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 62.0 from 65.5 in June. The Consumer Confidence Survey™ is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for July’s preliminary results was July 21st. Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer confidence, which had rebounded strongly in late spring, has faded in the last two months. The decline in the Present Situation Index was caused primarily by a worsening job market, as the percent of consumers claiming jobs are hard to get rose sharply. The decline in the Expectations Index was more the result of an increase in the proportion of consumers expecting no change in business and labor market conditions, as opposed to an increase in the percent of consumers expecting conditions to deteriorate further. However, more consumers are pessimistic about their income expectations, which does not bode well for spending in the months ahead." Consumers continued to rate current conditions unfavorably in July. Those saying business conditions are "bad" increased to 46.3 percent from 45.3 percent, however, those saying conditions are "good" increased to 9.1 percent from 8.1 percent. Consumers' assessment of the labor market deteriorated further. Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased to 48.1 percent from 44.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.6 percent from 4.5 percent. Overall, consumers remain quite pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The percent of consumers anticipating an improvement in business conditions over the next six months decreased to 18.0 percent from 20.9 percent, however, those expecting conditions to worsen decreased to 18.9 percent from 20.4 percent. The labor market outlook was also mixed. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 15.0 percent from 17.5 percent, however, those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 26.3 percent from 27.6 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 9.5 percent from 10.1 percent. For further information contact: Lynn Franco at +1 212 339 0344 lynn.franco@conference-board.org

Pre-market - July 28, 2009

Futures show a lower open today DJIA INDEX 9,045.00 -25.00 S&P 500 976.00 -3.90 NASDAQ 100 1,595.50 -4.00 Gold 956 0 0.04% Oil 68.18 -0.15 -0.22% Today's economic calendar: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET Janet Yellen Speaks 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET 2-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Over 200 earnings reports today

Pre-market - July 27, 2009

Futures up slightly this morning. DJIA INDEX 9,067.00 9.00 S&P 500 978.10 0.30 NASDAQ 100 1,599.75 2.50 Gold 956 -2 -0.18% Oil 68.66 0.59 0.87% Today's economic calendar: New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 20-Yr TIPS Auction 1:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Over 100 reports today - too many to list