Market wrap - 5:15

Another up day for this rocket of a market Dow/quotes 9,820 36 0.37% Nasdaq 2,133 6 0.29% S&P 500 1,068 3 0.26% Gold 1,010 -3 -0.32% Oil 71.78 -0.43 -0.59% Today by sector: Today's heatmap:

FHA running out of money?

Hate to link to a CNBC article, but couldn't find it elsewhere. FHA Cash Reserves to Fall Below Required Levels HOUSING, REAL ESTATE, FHA, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION Posted By: Jeff Cox | CNBC.com CNBC.com | 18 Sep 2009 | 09:32 AM ET Pressure from loan defaults has pushed cash reserves at the Federal Housing Administration below mandated minimum levels, but the agency's head says taxpayers won't be asked to make up the difference. Instead, the agency is moving is pressing ahead with policy changes aimed at reducing its exposure to risk as the FHA coffers have been hit by staggering losses from defaults and fraud. Borrowers will be required to have higher credit scores, though the agency did not release details of what the heightened credit requirements will be. Among the other significant changes are a raise in cash reserve requirements for lenders that handle FHA loans. The current standards call for $250,000 but will be raised by $1 million and possibly more in the future. In addition, the agency will appoint for the first time a risk compliance officer who will be responsible for overseeing risk of the insurance fund. FHA is establishing new credit rules to verify income and credit history as well in order to minimize defaults in the future. "Given the size and scope of the FHA and its importance to today’s market, these risk management and credit policy changes are important steps in strengthening the FHA fund, by ensuring that lenders have proper and sufficient protections," Commissioner David Stevens said in a statement. Another change likely to gain attention is FHA's moves to "assure appraiser independence." A similar move by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have drawn widespread criticism in the industry for holding up modifications to distressed loans. The FHA has never used taxpayer money to cover losses from its borrowing program, but has been hit hard by the rash of defaults that have plagued the industry. Part of the formula for making up the drop in reserves is likely to entail addressing fraudulent loans that contributed to the FHA's losses. The agency is amid preparing its actuarial study that will be submitted to Congress in November. Stevens said the agency has sufficient funds to cover its losses even without the proposed changes. But the new regulations and the appointment of the risk officer will help prevent similar problems from happening in the future, he said. FHA has about $30 billion in reserves, representing 4.4 percent of the loans it insures. The agency is a key backer for first-time homeowners and is now insuring about 5.3 million mortgages, compared to 4 million three years ago.

Pre-market - September 18, 2009

Futures flat on this quadruple witching Friday DJIA INDEX 9,743.00 6.00 S&P 500 1,063.80 1.00 NASDAQ 100 1,722.00 2.00 Today's economic calenedar: Nothing of note Today's earnings reports: Before open: None After close: FMCN Focus Media Holding Ltd. Services Advertising Agencies

Market wrap - 4:15pm

The market got some good news today, and got some bad news. Once you drilled into the Philly FED report, you would find some NOT so green shoots. Dow 9,784 -8 -0.08% Nasdaq 2,127 -6 -0.30% S&P 500 1,065 -3 -0.31% Gold 1,014 -7 -0.66% Oil 72.50 -0.04 -0.06% Today by sector: Today's heatmap:

Philly FED survey - 10:00am

Full report here Read the carefully - please - there is data in here below the headlines that are not so good. September 2009 Business Outlook Survey The region's manufacturing sector is showing signs of growth, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered positive readings for the second consecutive month. Indexes for employment, work hours, and the prices received for manufactured goods remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. The survey's broad indicators of future activity continued to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months. Current Indicators Suggest Modest Growth The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 4.2 in August to 14.1 this month. This is the highest reading since June 2007 and the second consecutive positive reading (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity (33 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (19 percent). Other broad indicators also suggested some growth this month. The current new orders index also remained positive for the second consecutive month, although it edged one point lower, to 3.3. The current shipments index increased eight points and has now increased 18 points over the last two months. Firms reported declines in inventories this month: The current inventory index declined 18 points, from 0.3 in August to -18.1. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. Labor market conditions remain weak, despite signs of improvement in overall activity. The current employment index decreased slightly, from -12.9 to -14.3. Overall declines, however, are still not as widespread as in the first six months of this year. Twenty-four percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 10 percent reported employment increases. Although the workweek index remained negative, the index edged two points higher, to -3.9. Prices of Manufactured Goods Decline Although more firms have reported higher prices for purchased inputs over the past few months, firms reported overall declines in prices of their manufactured goods this month. The prices paid index increased five points and follows a rise of 14 points last month; the reading of 14.9 for the prices paid index is the highest level since last September. The same manufacturers, however, reported declines in prices for their own final goods. While 17 percent reported price decreases, 6 percent reported increases; nearly 76 percent of the firms reported steady prices this month. The prices received index decreased nine points, to -10.6. Manufacturers Are Still Optimistic Indicators of future activity remained near levels not seen since 2004 (see Chart). The future general activity index remained positive for the ninth consecutive month but decreased from 56.8 in August to 47.8. Indexes for future new orders and shipments edged higher this month. The future shipments index increased eight points, and the future new orders index increased four points. For the fifth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (34 percent versus 14 percent). Firms' forecast for capital spending suggests that capital spending will be flat over the next six months: The future capital spending index, at 0.8, has remained very near zero for five months. In this month's special questions, manufacturers were asked about their total production growth for the third quarter (ending in September) and expectations for the fourth quarter (see Special Questions). Twice as many firms expect overall growth in production in the third quarter (48 percent) than expect a decline (24 percent). The average growth was about 1.3 percent for the responding firms. For the upcoming fourth quarter, more firms expect an acceleration in production growth (40 percent) than expect a deceleration (28 percent). However, few firms (only 1 percent) expect significant acceleration in growth in the fourth quarter; most firms characterized the expected acceleration in growth to be some (21percent) or slight (17 percent). Summary According to respondents to the September Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions are improving. For the second consecutive month, the survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were positive, suggesting business growth. Employment continued to decline among the reporting firms, however. Firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, and they expect modest growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year. More at link with formatted tables

Jobless claims - 8:30am

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Sept. 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 545,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 557,000. The 4-week moving average was 563,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 571,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 5, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.6 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 5 was 6,230,000, an increase of 129,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,101,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,180,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,185,750. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.636 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,869 in the week ending Sept. 12, a decrease of 58,429 from the previous week. There were 382,249 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.0 percent during the week ending Sept. 5, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,270,688, a decrease of 165,485 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,040,859. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Aug. 29. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,539 in the week ending Sept. 5, an increase of 83 from the prior week. There were 2,195 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 42 from the preceding week. There were 20,414 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Aug. 29, an increase of 699 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 30,213, a decrease of 563 from the prior week. States reported 3,141,485 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 29, an increase of 21,781 from the prior week. There were 1,525,890 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Aug. 29 were in Puerto Rico (6.8 percent), Oregon (5.7), Pennsylvania (5.7), Nevada (5.5), Michigan (5.2), Connecticut (5.1), New Jersey (5.1), California (5.0), Wisconsin (5.0), North Carolina (4.8), and Rhode Island (4.8). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Sept. 5 were in Washington (+2,620), Pennsylvania (+2,573), Massachusetts(+1,565), North Carolina (+1,332), and Illinois (+1,218), while the largest decreases were in California (-2,751), New York (-2,479), Wisconsin (-1,149), Texas (-809), and New Jersey (-700). More at link with formatted tables

Housing starts report - 8:30am

Full report here NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN AUGUST 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for July 2009: BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 579,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.2%) above the revised July rate of 564,000, but is 32.4 percent (±1.3%) below the August 2008 estimate of 857,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 462,000; this is 0.2 percent (±1.1%)* below the revised July figure of 463,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 98,000 in August. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. This is 1.5 percent (±7.9%)* above the revised July estimate of 589,000, but is 29.6 percent (±6.0%) below the August 2008 rate of 849,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 479,000; this is 3.0 percent (±5.7%)* below the revised July figure of 494,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 115,000. HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000. This is 5.5 percent (±14.0%)* below the revised July estimate of 804,000 and is 25.3 percent (±9.6%) below the August 2008 rate of 1,018,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 489,000; this is 1.6 percent (±12.7%)* below the revised July figure of 497,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 256,000.

Pre-market - Thursday, September 17, 2009

Futures bright again this morning, waiting on the jobless claims report at 8:30 DJIA INDEX 9,743.00 18.00 S&P 500 1,064.50 1.00 NASDAQ 100 1,719.50 1.75 Today's economic calendar: Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 52-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 2-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 5-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Today before open: CCL Carnival Corp. Services General Entertainment DFS Discover Financial Services Financial Credit Services FDX FedEx Corporation Services Air Delivery & Freight Services MCS Marcus Corp. Services Lodging PIR Pier 1 Imports Inc. Services Home Furnishing Stores SMTS Somanetics Corp. Healthcare Medical Appliances & Equipment Today after close: CMTL Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Technology Communication Equipment IHS IHS Inc. Technology Business Software & Services PALM Palm, Inc. Technology Personal Computers PCYC Pharmacyclics Inc. Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Other PSEM Pericom Semiconductor Corp. Technology Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits TSCM TheStreet.com, Inc. Technology Internet Information Providers

Another rocket up day for the market. How long and how high is the only question. Dow 108 1.12% Nasdaq 2,133 31 1.45% S&P 500 1,069 16 1.53% Gold 1,020 +14 +1.38% Oil 72.40 1.58 2.23% Today by sector: Today's heatmap: Tomorrow's earnings before open: CCL Carnival Corp. Services General Entertainment DFS Discover Financial Services Financial Credit Services FDX FedEx Corporation Services Air Delivery & Freight Services MCS Marcus Corp. Services Lodging PIR Pier 1 Imports Inc. Services Home Furnishing Stores SMTS Somanetics Corp. Healthcare Medical Appliances & Equipment Tomorrows earnings reports: CMTL Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Technology Communication Equipment IHS IHS Inc. Technology Business Software & Services PALM Palm, Inc. Technology Personal Computers PSEM Pericom Semiconductor Corp. Technology Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits TSCM TheStreet.com, Inc. Technology Internet Information Providers

CPI - Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Full report here Consumer Price Index - August 2009 On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The index has decreased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted increase in the CPI-U was driven by a 9.1 percent rise in the gasoline index. This increase accounted for almost the entire advance in the energy index and over 80 percent of the overall increase. Despite the August increase, the gasoline index has fallen 30.0 percent over the last 12 months. The indexes for food and for all items less food and energy both posted slight increases in August. The food index rose 0.1 percent following a 0.3 percent decline in July. The food at home index, which fell 0.5 percent in July, was unchanged in August. Of the six major grocery store food group indexes, three rose in August and three declined. The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.1 percent in August, the second consecutive such increase. Increases in the indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, public transportation and lodging away from home offset a decline in the new vehicle index. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase in the index since February 2004. More info at link

Futures up this morning before some critical and market moving data begins to come out at 8:30 am. DJIA INDEX 9,652.00 49.00 S&P 500 1,050.80 4.90 NASDAQ 100 1,701.25 6.25 Today's economic calendar: MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Current Account 8:30 AM ET Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before market opens: EPM Evolution Petroleum Corp. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas VOL Volt Information Sciences Inc. Services Staffing & Outsourcing Services ZLC Zale Corporation Services Jewelry Stores After market closes: APOG Apogee Enterprises Inc. Industrial Goods General Building Materials CKR CKE Restaurants Inc. Services Restaurants CLC CLARCOR Inc. Consumer Goods Auto Parts CTAS Cintas Corp. Services Business Services DBRN Dress Barn Inc. Services Apparel Stores DDMX Dynamex Inc. Services Trucking MLHR Herman Miller Inc. Consumer Goods Business Equipment OHB Orleans Homebuilders Inc. Industrial Goods Residential Construction ORCL Oracle Corp. Technology Application Software

Market wrap - 4:15

The market looked like it might go down this morning, but at 10:30 it changed directions, and helped by the falling dollar around noon, rallied most of the day. A slight sell off at the close kept it from finishing at the day's high. Dow 9,683.41 +56.61 (0.59%) S&P 500 1,052.63 +3.29 (0.31%) Nasdaq 2,102.64 +10.86 (0.52%) Gold 1,006 +5 +0.52% Oil 70.94 2.07 3.01% Today by sector: Today's heatmap: Earnings after close tonight: ADBE Adobe Systems Inc. Technology Application Software CGA China Green Agriculture, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals Earnings reports before open tomorrow: VOL Volt Information Sciences Inc. Services Staffing & Outsourcing Services

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30am

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in September, following the upturn first observed in August. The general business conditions index increased 7 points, to 18.9, its highest level since late 2007. The new orders index was positive and higher than last month, while the shipments index dipped. The prices paid index rose several points to its highest level in many months, and the prices received index, while negative, inched close to zero. The index for number of employees remained in negative territory, while the average workweek index moved above zero for the first time in a year. Future indexes remained relatively high and close to their August levels, suggesting that conditions are expected to improve further in the months ahead. Indeed, the future general business conditions index reached its highest level in several years. In response to a series of supplementary questions about past and prospective changes in the selling prices of their goods, manufacturers indicated that prices had declined by 2.1 percent, on average, over the past twelve months—a sharp contrast with the rise of 4.8 percent reported in an identical survey conducted a year ago (see supplemental report). Looking ahead to the next twelve months, respondents expected prices to rise by 1.9 percent, on average, compared with last year’s expected price rise of 3.6 percent. When asked about the probability of certain specified price changes over the next twelve months, the average respondent estimated a roughly 50 percent chance that prices would remain within 2 percent of their current levels, a 39 percent chance that they would rise 2 percent or more, and a 12 percent chance that they would drop 2 percent or more. Conditions Improve for a Second Consecutive Month In September, the general business conditions index posted its third consecutive monthly increase and its second consecutive positive reading. Rising 7 points to 18.9, the index was at its highest level since November 2007, with nearly 40 percent of respondents reporting that conditions had improved in September and 20 percent reporting that conditions had worsened. Similarly, the new orders index rose 6 points to 19.8, its highest level since November 2007. The shipments index dipped 9 points to 5.3; the unfilled orders index, while still below zero, rose to -4.8. The delivery time index moved above zero for the first time in considerably more than a year, climbing 12 points to 1.2. The inventories index remained well below zero, at -25.0. Average Workweek Index Rises above Zero The indexes for both prices paid and prices received advanced in September. The prices paid index rose 6 points to 20.2, its third consecutive positive reading—a sign that input prices were generally rising. The prices received index rose 9 points, but continued to be negative, at -3.6. The index for number of employees, at -8.3, remained negative and close to last month’s level. The average workweek index rose sharply, as it did last month, climbing 12 points to 6.0, its first positive reading in a year. Continued Improvement Expected in the Months Ahead Future indexes were generally positive and near last month’s levels. The future general business conditions index rose 4 points, to 52.3, a level last reached in 2004. The future new orders and shipments indexes held steady. The future inventories index dipped 11 points to -17.9. Future price indexes were both positive and higher than in August, and future employment indexes were also positive. The capital expenditures and technology spending indexes both edged down a few points, but remained positive.

Retail sales - September 15, 2009 - 8:30am

Full report here August 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $351.4 billion, an increase of 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 5.3 percent (±0.7%) below August 2008. Total sales for the June through August 2009 period were down 7.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.2 percent (±0.2%)*. Retail trade sales were up 3.0 percent (±0.7%) from July 2009, but 6.0 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 26.7 percent (±1.5%) from August 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 13.6 percent (±2.0%) from last year. More at link

PPI data - September 15, 2009 - 8:30am

Full report here PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - AUGUST 2009 The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.9-percent decline in July and a 1.8-percent advance in June. In August, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods rose 1.8 percent and the crude goods index moved up 3.8 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods fell 4.3 percent from August 2008 to August 2009, following a record 6.8 percent 12-month decline in July. (See table A.) More at link with formatted tables

Pre-market, Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Futures down slightly as of 7:47 am DJIA INDEX 9,537.00 -13.00 S&P 500 1,041.30 -2.20 NASDAQ 100 1,685.75 -2.25 Today's economic calendar: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before market opens: BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Services Electronics Stores CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Services Restaurants GIGM GigaMedia Ltd. Technology Internet Software & Services KR Kroger Co. Services Grocery Stores RAIL FreightCar America Inc. Services Railroads SYMX Synthesis Energy Systems, Inc. Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals After close: ADBE Adobe Systems Inc. Technology Application Software CGA China Green Agriculture, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals

Market wrap - a day late - 7:45am

Dow 9,626.80 +21.39 (0.22%) S&P 500 1,049.34 +6.61 (0.63%) Nasdaq 2,091.78 +10.88 (0.52%) Today by sector: Today's heatmap:

From CNBC this morning. Santelli at his best again.

Pre-market, Monday, September 14, 2009

Futures down this morning as of 7:45 DJIA INDEX 9,464.00 -67.00 S&P 500 1,028.60 -8.70 NASDAQ 100 1,669.75 -13.75 Today's economic calendar: Elizabeth Duke Speaks 8:35 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 12:30 PM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET Janet Yellen Speaks 3:50 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before open: FMCN Focus Media Holding Ltd. Services Advertising Agencies NTSC National Technical Systems Inc. Services Research Services PMFG PMFG, Inc. Industrial Goods Diversified Machinery SCMR Sycamore Networks Inc. Technology Networking & Communication Devices After close: COOL Majesco Entertainment Co. Technology Multimedia & Graphics Software PLL Pall Corp. Industrial Goods Diversified Machinery UNFY Unify Corp. Technology Business Software & Services WPCS WPCS International Incorporated Technology Diversified Communication Services