Existing home sales - 10:00

Full report here Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit Washington, December 22, 2009 Existing-home sales rose again in November as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.” An NAR practitioner survey2 shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009. NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.” Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October. Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply. “Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.” For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges. The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area. Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008. In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008. Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

GDP & Corporate profits - 8:30

Full report here EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2009 BEA 09-57 * See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (THIRD ESTIMATE) CORPORATE PROFITS: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (REVISED ESTIMATE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in exports, in private inventory investment, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending. _______________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005)dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. _______________ Motor vehicle output added 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, 0.1 percentage point less than the second estimate; this index increased 0.5 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the second. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the second. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 5.9 percent,compared with a decrease of 9.6 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 18.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 17.3 percent. Equipment and software increased 1.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 18.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 23.3 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 17.8 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.1 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 21.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 8.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second. National defense increased 8.4 percent, compared with an increase of 14.0 percent. Nondefense increased 7.0 percent, compared with an increase of 6.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.9 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.69 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $139.2 billion in the third quarter, following decreases of $160.2 billion in the second quarter and $113.9 billion in the first. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the second. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.3 percent in the second. Gross national product Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent in the second. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $25.7 billion in the third quarter after decreasing $7.4 billion in the second; in the third quarter, receipts increased $15.7 billion, and payments decreased $10.0 billion. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 2.6 percent, or $90.9 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $14,242.1 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP decreased 0.8 percent, or $26.8 billion. Revisions The "third" estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.6 percentage point, or $17.3 billion, lower than the second estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to private inventory investment, and to personal consumption expenditures. Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP................... 3.5 2.8 2.2 Current-dollar GDP......... 4.3 3.3 2.6 Gross domestic purchases price index. 1.6 1.4 1.3 Corporate Profits Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $132.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $43.8 billion in the second quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $28.4 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $30.5 billion in the second. Taxes on corporate income increased $15.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $35.6 billion in the second. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $117.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion in the second. Dividends decreased $6.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $62.1 billion; current- production undistributed profits increased $123.5 billion, compared with an increase of $70.3 billion. Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $82.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $28.5 billion in the second. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $27.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $29.8 billion in the second. In the third quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real value added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected decreases in both unit nonlabor and labor costs that more than offset a decrease in unit prices. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $22.0 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $14.6 billion in the second. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The third-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments. Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of both financial and nonfinancial corporations increased in the third quarter. The increase in nonfinancial corporations reflected increases in utilities, information, "other" nonfinancial, retail trade, and transportation and warehousing that were partly offset by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing. Within manufacturing, the largest decrease was in “other” durable goods, and the largest increase was in motor vehicles. Profits before tax increased $157.9 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $90.6 billion in the second. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment increased $9.7 billion in the third quarter (from -$128.6 billion to -$118.9 billion), compared with an increase of $16.3 billion in the second. The inventory valuation adjustment decreased $35.2 billion (from $18.1 billion to -$17.1 billion), compared with a decrease of $63.0 billion. * * * BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- January 29, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Advance Estimate)