Leading indicators - released 10:00 am

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Latest Press Release
Released: Thursday, January 21, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.1 percent in December, following a 1.0 percent gain in November, and a 0.3 percent rise in October.

NOTE: This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

In addition to annual benchmark revisions, The Conference Board (TCB) continuously monitors the behavior and performance of the composite indexes and their components and makes changes from time to time (See BCI Handbook 2001, for a description of the previous comprehensive revision that TCB undertook in 1996.) These occasional comprehensive benchmark revisions are consistent with long-standing TCB policy to make changes to the indexes when research indicates substantial improvements are possible. These changes are the result of research at TCB and regular consultations with its Business Cycle Indicators Advisory Panel and other experts. Details of these changes will be announced in advance in the technical notes and posted on our website when they are available.
For more information, please visit our website at www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.
Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply in December, and has risen steadily for nine consecutive months. The six-month growth rate has picked up slightly to 5.2 percent (about a 10.8 percent annual rate) in the period through December, substantially higher than earlier in the year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months."

Adds Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The indicators point to an economy in early recovery. The coincident economic index shows slow expansion of economic activity through December. The leading economic index suggests that the pace of improvement could pick up this spring."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.1 percent in December, following a 0.1 percent increase in both November and October. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.5 percent decline in November, and a 0.2 percent decline in October.
The next release is scheduled for February 18, 2010 at 10 A.M. ET.

Filly Fed Leading Indicators - 10:00

Full report here Released: Thursday, December 17, 2009 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent gain in October, and a 1.2 percent rise in September. Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs. Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table. Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "The Conference Board LEI has been on an uptrend for more than half a year and it is now slightly higher than its latest peak in July 2007. Improving financial conditions, labor market indicators, and housing permits have helped the LEI continue its gains in November. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed somewhat in recent months." Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The indicators point to a bright new year. The U.S. LEI increased for the eighth consecutive month. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. also increased in November. Employment largely held steady, making this the first month since December 2007 that it did not make a negative contribution to the index." The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S.rose 0.2 percent in November, following no change in October, and a 0.1 percent decline in September. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent decline in October, and a 0.5 percent decline in September. The next release is scheduled for January 21, 2010 at 10 A.M. ET. Professional Contacts at The Conference Board: Ken Goldstein: 212-339-0331 Indicators Program: 212-339-0330 Media Contacts: Frank Tortorici: +1 212 339 0231 Email: indicators@conference-board.org

Leading indicators - 10:00

Full report here Released: Thursday, November 19, 2009 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.0 percent gain in September, and a 0.4 percent rise in August. Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs. Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table. Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: “After half a year of consecutive increases, the month-to-month growth of the LEI is stabilizing and the gains continue to be broad-based. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index has been essentially flat since June, after declining since November 2007. The composite indexes suggest the recovery is unfolding and economic activity should continue improving in the near term.” Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: “The data indicates that economic recovery is finally setting in. We can expect slow growth through the first half of 2010. The pace of growth, however, will depend critically on how much demand picks up, and how soon.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October, following a 0.1 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent decline in September, and a 0.4 percent decline in August. The next release is scheduled for December 17, 2009 at 10 A.M. ET.

Leading Indicators - 10:00am

Full report here Released: Monday, September 21, 2009 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in August, following a 0.9 percent gain in July, and a 0.8 percent rise in June. Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs. Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table. "Since reaching a peak in July 2007, the LEI fell for twenty months – the longest downtrend since the mid 1970s – but it has been rising since April and its gains have become very widespread," says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The six-month growth rate of the LEI continues to accelerate. At the same time, the downtrend in the coincident economic index, measuring current economic activity, seems to be stabilizing, with the index flat so far this quarter." Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI has risen for five consecutive months and the coincident economic index has stopped falling. Taken together, this suggests that the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain." The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in August, following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.4 percent decline in June. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in August, following a 0.5 percent decline in July, and a 0.9 percent decline in June. The next release is scheduled for Thursday, October 22, 2009 at 10 A.M. ET. Professional Contacts at The Conference Board: Ken Goldstein: 212-339-0331 Indicators Program: 212-339-0330 Media Contacts: Frank Tortorici: +1 212 339 0231 Email: indicators@conference-board.org

Leading indicators - 10:30am

Full report here Released: Thursday, August 20, 2009 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) remained unchanged and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.3 percent in July. Download a PDF of the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs. Download a PDF of the press release with graph. * The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. rose again in July, its fourth consecutive increase. The six-month change in the index has risen to 3.0 percent (a 6.2 percent annual rate) in the period through July, up substantially from -2.8 percent (a -5.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading indicators have grown more widespread in recent months. The interest rate spread, initial unemployment claims and the average workweek made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the negative contributions from consumer expectations, real money supply, and building permits. * The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. was unchanged in July, after decreasing for the past consecutive eight months. Index levels were revised slightly lower in recent months as a result of downward revisions to personal income. Between January and July 2009, the index fell 2.7 percent (a -5.4 percent annual rate), slower than the decline of 3.5 percent (a -6.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In July, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell again, and with the coincident economic index remaining unchanged, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased further. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 1.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter, following a contraction of 6.4 percent annual rate for the first quarter of the year. * After having fallen steadily since reaching a peak in July 2007, The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has increased sharply in the last four months, amid widespread strength among its components. As a result, the six-month growth rate in the index has accelerated to its highest rate since the middle of 2004. Meanwhile, the decline in The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. has gradually moderated in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the recession is bottoming out and that economic activity will likely begin to recover soon. LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, and building permits. The manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in July. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 101.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in June and increased 1.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading economic index increased 3.0 percent, with eight out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85 percent). COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were industrial production, personal income less transfer payments* and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributor was employees on nonagricultural payrolls. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 99.7 (2004=100). This index decreased 0.4 percent in June and decreased 0.4 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident economic index decreased 2.7 percent, with none of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent). LAGGING INDICATORS. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 110.8 (2004=100) in July, with one of the seven components advancing. The positive contributor to the index was the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in labor cost per unit of output*, change in CPI for services and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady in July. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index decreased 0.7 percent in June and decreased 0.6 percent in May. DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S., The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) for the U.S. and reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 12 Noon on August 19, 2009. Some series are estimated as noted below. * Series in The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. based on our estimates are manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate the money supply. Series in The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. that are based on our estimates are personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales. Series in The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. that are based on our estimates are inventories to sales ratio, consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor cost per unit of output, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate commercial and industrial loans outstanding. The procedure used to estimate the current month's personal consumption expenditure deflator (used in the calculation of real money supply and commercial and industrial loans outstanding) now incorporates the current month's consumer price index when it is available before the release of The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. The next release is scheduled for Monday, September 21, 2009 at 10 A.M. ET.