Housing Starts - 8:30

Full report here NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN NOVEMBER 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for November 2009: BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000. This is 6.0 percent (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 551,000, but is 7.3 percent (±1.8%) below the November 2008 estimate of 630,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 473,000; this is 5.3 percent (±1.1%) above the revised October figure of 449,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 86,000 in November. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 8.9 percent (±10.2%)* above the revised October estimate of 527,000, but is 12.4 percent (±9.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 655,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 482,000; this is 2.1 percent (±9.2%)* above the revised October figure of 472,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 83,000. HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000. This is 8.7 percent (±13.7%)* above the revised October estimate of 745,000, but is 25.3 percent (±10.1%) below the November 2008 rate of 1,084,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 524,000; this is unchanged (±11.7%)*compared with the revised October figure. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 270,000.

CPI - 8:30

Full report here Consumer Price Index - November 2009 On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months the index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment, the first positive 12-month change since February 2009. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was due to a 4.1 percent increase in the energy index. The index for gasoline rose sharply and the indexes for electricity, fuel oil, and natural gas also increased, creating the fourth consecutive rise in the energy index and the largest increase since August. In contrast, the index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in November, after ten consecutive monthly increases. Declines in shelter indexes offset increases in the indexes for new and used motor vehicles, medical care, airline fares, and tobacco. The food index rose slightly in November. As in October, the food away from home index rose modestly while the index for food at home was unchanged. Within the latter, three grocery store food groups posted increases while three declined. More at link with formatted tables

Housing market index report - 1:00

Full report here Builder Confidence Edges Down in December December 15, 2009 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes receded one point to 16 in December as continued weakness in the economy and job markets weighed on consumers’ potential home buying plans, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. “From an affordability standpoint, rarely has there been a better time in history to purchase a home, thanks to record low interest rates, attractive prices, and of course the recent extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit,” said Joe Robson, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “However, builders are not seeing the full impact of these conditions on buyer demand, partly because awareness of the latest incentives is still building, and partly because of concerns about job security and other economic woes.” “As we anticipated, this is shaping up to be a bumpy recovery period for the housing market,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While some families may be just starting to factor the expanded tax credit into their potential home buying plans, many are hesitating because of the poor economy. At the same time, tight lending conditions for both consumers and home builders continue to pose considerable obstacles on the road to a sustained housing and economic recovery.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The December HMI fell one point to 16, its lowest point since June of this year. Two out of three component indexes also were down, with a one-point decline to 16 registered for current sales conditions and a two-point decline to 26 registered for sales expectations in the next six months. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged for a third consecutive month, at 13. Regionally, December’s HMI results were somewhat mixed. The Northeast posted a three point gain to 23, while the West posted a one-point gain to 19, the South registered no change at 17, and the Midwest posted a two-point decline, to 12. Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed online at: www.nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at: www.housingeconomics.com.

Santelli vs. Liesman and the PPI - 9:25

Industrial Production - 9:15

Full report here INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in November after having been unchanged in October. Manufacturing production advanced 1.1 percent, with broad-based gains among both durables and nondurables. The output of mines climbed 2.1 percent, but the index for utilities fell 1.8 percent, primarily as a result of lower output of gas utilities--temperatures in November were unseasonably mild and reduced the need for heating. At 99.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 5.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.7 percentage point to 71.3 percent, a rate 9.6 percentage points below its average for the period from 1972 through 2008. See link for formatted tables

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30

Full report here The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index fell 21 points, to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted somewhat more moderate declines but also moved close to zero. Input prices picked up a bit, as the prices paid index rebounded to roughly its November level; however, the prices received index moved further into negative territory, suggesting that price increases are not being passed along. Current employment indexes slipped back into negative territory. Future indexes remained well above zero but signaled somewhat less widespread optimism than in recent months. Indexes for expected prices paid and received declined moderately but remained well above zero. In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Reports tab), manufacturers were asked about recent and expected changes in the prices paid for various categories of goods and services. Respondents predicted that prices paid for most budget categories would increase by 2 to 3 percentage points more in 2010 than in 2009. Prices paid overall were reported to have risen by 2.5 percent in 2009 and were expected to rise by 4.2 percent next year. The average respondent anticipated an increase of 2.1 percent in both wages and costs of outside services, 7.6 percent in employee benefit costs, and 3.5 percent in nonmedical insurance costs. In response to a separate question, the average respondent saw a roughly 7 percent chance that prices paid would decline by more than 2 percent; in last year’s survey, the probability of such a decline was pegged at 19 percent. Conditions Level Off The general business conditions index fell from 23.5 to just 2.6, suggesting a leveling off in conditions after four straight months of improvement. Roughly 24 percent of those surveyed in December said that conditions had improved, while 22 percent reported that conditions had deteriorated. Most of the other specific activity measures fell a bit less sharply: the new orders index slipped more than 14 points to 2.2, and the shipments measure declined by just under 7 points to 6.3. The unfilled orders index fell by more than 18 points to -21.1, its lowest level in nine months. In contrast, the index for delivery times held steady at -2.6, and the inventories index, at -18.4, was little changed for the third straight month. Manufacturers See Margins Squeezed Survey respondents faced somewhat higher input prices in December, while their selling prices declined. The prices paid index rose 9 points to 19.7, reversing a drop of similar magnitude in November and suggesting some renewed price pressures. At the same time, the prices received index slipped 6.6 points to -9.2, its lowest level since August. Employment indexes declined for the second straight month, falling below zero for the first time in a few months: the index for number of employees slipped 7 points to -5.3, and the average workweek index fell 11 points to -5.3. Manufacturers’ Optimism Ebbs Slightly; Prices Are Expected to Rise Manufacturers remained generally optimistic about the outlook for general business conditions and activity, although a bit less so than in recent months. After rising to its highest level in more than a year, the index for expected general business conditions retreated 14 points to 43.0—still a high level but the lowest since July. The forward-looking indexes for both new orders and shipments fell by almost as much but remained in the upper 30s, while the future unfilled orders index declined by a more moderate 5 points to 12.0. The index for expected delivery times edged up to zero, its highest level in more than a year, and the measure for future inventories was unchanged at 7.9. Forward-looking price indexes declined in December, after rising sharply in the preceding month: the index for future prices paid slipped nearly 8 points to 40.8, and the index for future prices received dropped about 5 points to 22.4. The index for expected number of employees reversed course in December, retreating 13 points to 17.8, while the future average workweek index was little changed at 19.7. The measure for planned capital expenditures jumped more than 9 points to 30.3, its highest level since May 2007; however, the measure for planned technology spending edged down to 13.2.

PPI - 8:30

Full report here PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - NOVEMBER 2009 The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a 0.3-percent advance in October and a 0.6-percent decrease in September. In November, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods climbed 1.4 percent, and the crude goods index rose 5.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended November 2009, their first 12-month increase since November 2008. (See table A.) SEE TABLE A AT LINK Stage-of-Processing Analysis Finished goods About three-fourths of the November advance in the finished goods index can be traced to higher prices for energy goods, which jumped 6.9 percent. The indexes for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods also contributed to the finished goods increase, both rising 0.5 percent. Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods climbed 6.9 percent in November after advancing 1.6 percent a month earlier. About sixty percent of the broad-based November rise can be attributed to a 14.2-percent surge in gasoline prices. Increases in the indexes for liquefied petroleum gas and home heating oil also were major factors in the finished energy goods advance. (See table 2.) Finished core: The index for finished goods less foods and energy moved up 0.5 percent in November, its largest increase since a 0.5-percent gain in October 2008. Leading the November advance, the index for light motor trucks jumped 4.2 percent. Higher cigarette prices also contributed to the rise in the finished core index. Finished foods: The index for finished consumer foods advanced 0.5 percent in November, its second consecutive monthly increase. Over sixty percent of the November rise can be traced to higher prices for fresh and dry vegetables, which climbed 8.7 percent. Intermediate goods The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components rose 1.4 percent in November, its fourth straight monthly advance. Accounting for about three-fourths of the broad-based November increase, prices for intermediate energy goods climbed 5.4 percent. The indexes for both intermediate goods less foods and energy and for intermediate foods and feeds also contributed to this advance, rising 0.3 and 0.7 percent, respectively. On a 12-month basis, prices for intermediate goods fell 1.6 percent in November. This is the fourth consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines following a record 15.2-percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009. (See table B.) Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods rose 5.4 percent in November, its second consecutive monthly increase. A major factor in the November advance was an 18.8-percent surge in jet fuel prices. The indexes for gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas also contributed significantly to higher intermediate energy goods prices. (See table 2). Intermediate core: Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy increased 0.3 percent in November, their fifth increase in the last six months. The index for basic organic chemicals led the November advance, rising 4.3 percent. Higher prices for medicinal and botanical chemicals also were a factor in the intermediate core increase. Intermediate foods: The index for intermediate foods and feeds moved up 0.7 percent in November following two consecutive monthly declines. About forty percent of this advance can be attributed to prices for pork, which climbed 6.4 percent. Crude goods The Producer Price Index for Crude Materials for Further Processing increased 5.7 percent in November. For the 3-month period ending in November, crude material prices rose 9.1 percent after advancing 4.4 percent in the 3 months ending in August. In November, monthly increases of 12.2 percent in the index for crude energy materials and 2.6 percent for prices of crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs outweighed a 0.8-percent decrease in the index for crude nonfood materials less energy. (See table B.) Crude energy: The index for crude energy materials increased 12.2 percent in November. From August to November, this index rose 15.0 percent compared with a 12.6-percent rise in the 3 months ending in August. Accounting for about two-thirds of the monthly November increase, the index for natural gas jumped 25.5 percent. Higher prices for both crude petroleum and coal also contributed to the advance in the crude energy materials index. (See table 2.) Crude foods: Prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rose 2.6 percent in November. This index moved up 5.8 percent in the most recent 3-month period compared with a 7.1-percent decline in the previous 3-month period. In November, over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the crude foods index can be attributed to a 25.6-percent surge in prices for slaughter hogs. An advance in the fluid milk index also was a significant factor in the rise for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs. SEE TABLE B AT LINK Services Analysis Trade industries: The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Trade Industries moved up 1.3 percent in November after no change in the previous month. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The November increase was led by a 36.5-percent rise in the margin index for gasoline stations. Higher margins received by merchant wholesalers of durable goods and general merchandise stores also contributed to the advance in the total trade industries index. Transportation and warehousing industries: The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Transportation and Warehousing Industries rose 0.5 percent in November, its second consecutive monthly increase. About seventy percent of the November advance can be traced to a 1.8-percent rise in prices received by the air transportation industry group. The indexes for long-distance general freight trucking (by the truckload) and specialized freight trucking also moved up in November. Traditional service industries: The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Traditional Service Industries declined 0.1 percent in November after advancing 0.5 percent in October. Two-thirds of this decline can be attributed to prices received by general and medical surgical hospitals, which fell 0.5 percent. The industry indexes for non-casino hotels and motels and for passenger car rental also decreased in November. See link for formatted tables