Saturday, August 15, 2009
Market wrap - a day late again - Saturday, 10:30am
Hey, I go out on Friday night, give me a break :-)
The market got bad news starting with the 8:30 CPI numbers, and it continued with the Industrial information and Consumer Sentiment. It didn't sell off as much as it looked like it might in the morning. Direction next week could be either way since no supports or resistance was broken this week.
Dow 9,321.40 -76.79 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,004.09 -8.64 (-0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,985.52 -23.83 (-1.19%)
Today by sector:
Today's heatmap:
Friday, August 14, 2009
Consumer sentiment - 10:00am
From the Wall Street Journal
Consumer Sentiment Takes a Step Backward
Consumer attitudes darkened in July, breaking a string of improved readings that had suggested households were regaining confidence in the economy.
The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, which was released Friday, sank to 66 from 70.8 in June, though it remained above the low of 55.3 recorded in November.
Richard Curtin, the survey director, noted that most consumers "believe the economic free-fall is now over," but "see little reason to believe that the economic-stimulus package will improve their finances anytime soon."
In July, the fewest consumers in the survey's 60-year history reported income gains, and respondents expected their incomes to rise just 0.2% on average in the next year. Buying plans for homes, autos and big-ticket household items declined as well.
The drop in consumer sentiment echoes a decline in attitudes reported last month by the Conference Board, a New York business-research group. The index fell about five points to 49.3 in June after three consecutive gains.
"The inescapable fact is that the U.S. consumer is faced with daunting fundamentals," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist at New York-based MFR Inc.
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Industrial Production and capacity utilization - 9:15am
Full report here
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since December 2007. Manufacturing output advanced 1.0 percent in July; most of the increase was due to a jump in motor vehicle assemblies from an annual rate of 4.1 million units in June to 5.9 million units in July. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.4 percent, reflecting unseasonably mild temperatures in July, and the output of mines increased 0.8 percent. At 96.0 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 13.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. In July, the capacity utilization rate for total industry edged up to 68.5 percent, a level 12.4 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average.
Market Groups
The production of consumer goods rose 0.6 percent in July, as an increase of 7.4 percent in consumer durables more than offset a decrease of 0.9 percent in nondurable consumer goods. The output of consumer durables was boosted by a 17.4 percent increase in the production of automotive products. The indexes for home electronics and for appliances, furniture, and carpeting were little changed, while the index for miscellaneous goods increased 0.8 percent. The decline in nondurable consumer goods was led by a drop of 2.7 percent in the index for consumer energy products. Non-energy consumer nondurable goods declined 0.4 percent; the indexes for foods and tobacco and for chemical products decreased, while the indexes for clothing and for paper products edged up.
The output of business equipment moved up 0.5 percent in July, the first increase for this category this year. The output of transit equipment increased 4.6 percent as a result of the sharp rise in motor vehicle output and a rise in the production of civilian aircraft. The index for industrial and other equipment decreased 0.5 percent, after having fallen at an average rate of 1.7 percent per month in the second quarter; the index for information processing equipment edged lower. The output of defense and space equipment rose 0.6 percent.
Among nonindustrial supplies, the production of construction supplies edged down 0.1 percent in July, its third consecutive mild decline after sharp decreases over the previous nine months. The index of business supplies moved down 0.3 percent.
Materials output rose 0.8 percent in July. A gain of 1.2 percent in the index for non-energy materials more than offset a decline of 0.3 percent in the index for energy materials. Within non-energy materials, the index for durable materials advanced 2.0 percent. Consumer parts rose sharply, led by a brisk advance in the output of motor vehicle parts; the indexes for equipment parts and for other durable materials also moved up. The production of nondurable materials gained 0.3 percent; the output of paper materials and of chemical materials increased, while the output of textile materials fell 2.7 percent.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in July but remained 14.4 percent lower than its year-earlier level. The factory operating rate rose to 65.4 percent in July, 0.7 percentage point above the historical low recorded in June; the series begins in 1948. Production in durable goods industries advanced 2.2 percent in July. In addition to the sharp increase in motor vehicles and parts output, large production gains occurred for nonmetallic mineral products and for primary metals. The indexes for wood products, computer and electronic products, aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, furniture and related products, and miscellaneous goods also rose. The indexes for fabricated metal products, machinery, and electrical equipment declined.
The production of nondurable goods fell 0.1 percent in July. The indexes for textile and product mills and for printing and support recorded sizable declines; the indexes for food, beverages, and tobacco and for petroleum and coal products also declined. The output of paper, of chemicals, and of plastic and rubber products increased.
The index for other manufacturing (non-NAICS), which consists of publishing and logging, was down 0.6 percent in July.
The output of electric and gas utilities decreased 2.4 percent, and the operating rate for utilities dropped 2.1 percentage points, to 77.6 percent. Mining production moved up 0.8 percent; its utilization rate in July, at 81.7 percent, was 5.9 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average.
Capacity utilization rates at industries grouped by stage of process were as follows: For the crude stage, utilization moved up 1.0 percentage point, to 78.8 percent, a rate 7.8 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average; for the primary and semifinished stages, utilization ticked down 0.1 percentage point, to 65.9 percent, a rate 16.1 percentage points below its long-run average; and for the finished stage, utilization moved up 0.8 percentage point, to 67.2 percent, a rate 10.5 percentage points below its long-run average.
Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.
More at link with tables I cannot format.
Consumer price index report - 8:30am
Full report here
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in July before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 12 months the index has fallen 2.1 percent, as a 28.1 percent decline in the energy index since its July 2008 peak has more than offset increases of 0.9 percent in the food index and 1.5 percent in the index for all items less food and energy.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July following a 0.7 percent increase in June. Small declines in the food and energy indexes offset a small increase in the index for all items less food and energy. The food index declined 0.3 percent in July with all six major grocery store food groups posting
declines. The energy index, which rose 7.4 percent in June, fell 0.4 percent in July. Decreases in the indexes for gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity more than offset an increase in the index for natural gas.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in July following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The indexes for new vehicles, tobacco, medical care and apparel all continued to increase in July, and the index for airline fares turned up after a long series of declines. In contrast to these increases, the shelter index decreased in July as the index for lodging away from home fell and the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent were unchanged.
The food and beverages index, which rose 0.1 percent in June, fell 0.2 percent in July. The decrease was caused by the food at home index, which declined for the seventh time in the last eight months, falling 0.5 percent. All six major grocery store food group indexes fell, with the largest decreases being a 1.3 percent decline in the index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs and a 0.6 percent decline in the dairy and related products index, which has now fallen for eight months in a row.
The cereals and bakery products index posted the smallest decrease of the six groups, falling 0.1 percent. The indexes for fruits and vegetables, for nonalcoholic
beverages, and for other food at home all declined 0.3 percent in July. The food at home index has declined 2.6 percent from its peak in November 2008. In contrast to the decline in the food at home index, the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent in July and the index for alcoholic beverages increased 0.3 percent.
The housing index fell 0.2 percent in July after being unchanged in June. The index for shelter fell 0.2 percent and the household energy index declined 0.3 percent. Within the shelter group, the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent were both unchanged in July after rising 0.1 percent in June. The index for lodging away from home turned down in July, falling 2.1 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in June, and has fallen 8.9 percent over the past 12 months. Within household energy, a 0.9 percent increase in the index for natural gas was more than offset by declines in the other indexes, including a 0.6 percent decrease in the electricity index and a 1.5 percent fall in the fuel oil index.
The index for household furnishings and operations, unchanged for each of the previous three months, declined 0.1 percent in July. For the past 12 months, the housing index has declined 0.7 percent, with the shelter index up 0.9 percent and the household energy index down 14.1 percent.
After rising 4.2 percent in June, the transportation index increased 0.2 percent in July. Most of the moderation was due to the motor fuel index, which fell 0.4 percent in July after rising 17.2 percent in June. The new vehicle index increased 0.5 percent in July after rising 0.7 percent in June, and the index for used cars and
trucks was unchanged in July after rising 0.9 percent in June.
The public transportation index, however, turned up in July, rising 1.9 percent after declining 0.5 percent in June. The turnaround was mostly due to the index for airline fares, which rose 2.1 percent in July after declining in each of the previous ten months. Over the past 12 months, the transportation index has fallen 14.1 percent, with several of its components declining. The gasoline index fell 37.3 percent while the index for airline fares declined 16.6 percent and the index for used cars and trucks decreased 7.9 percent. However, the new vehicle index has risen 1.2 percent over the past 12 months.
Among other CPI groups, the medical care index rose 0.2 percent in July, the same increase as in June. Within that group, the index for hospital and related services rose 0.7 percent while the index for prescription drugs was unchanged. Over the last 12 months, the medical care index has risen 3.2 percent.
The index for other goods and services rose 0.8 percent in July after advancing 0.3 percent in June. The larger increase was driven by the tobacco index, which rose 2.2 percent as excise tax increases in several states went into effect in July. The tobacco index has now risen 27.8 percent over the past year.
The apparel index advanced 0.6 percent in July after a 0.7 percent increase in June. The index for education and communication rose 0.3 percent in July after rising 0.2 percent in June, while the index for recreation was unchanged in July after rising 0.5 percent in June.
More charts and info at link.
Pre-market - August 14, 2009 - 7:30am
Futures down a bit this morning.
DJIA INDEX 9,374.00 -14.00
S&P 500 1,012.20 -1.30
NASDAQ 100 1,627.75 -4.00
Gold 957 4 0.42%
Oil 70.74 0.22 0.31%
Today's economic calendar:
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
Today's earnings reports:
Before open
After close
Market wrap - a day late - 7:15am
What looked like it could become a down day on the street, the market rallied and closed in the green for the day. The numbers were not all that good, but this market just doesn't care, it goes higher - again.
Dow 9,398.19 +36.58 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,012.73 +6.92 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,009.35 +10.63 (0.53%)
Today by sector:
The banks win again, not a surprise at all.
Today's heatmap:
Thursday, August 13, 2009
30 year bond auction - 1:05pm
Wow! Who would have thunk it!
Full report here
Labels:
2009,
30 year bond,
August 13
Business inventories - 10:00am
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2009, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT
Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713 CB09-118
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
June 2009
Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent (±0.2%) from May 2009 and down 18.0 percent (±0.5%) from June 2008.
Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,350.0 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from May 2009 and down 9.8 percent (±0.4%) from June 2008.
Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.38. The June 2008 ratio was 1.26.
Full report here
The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for July is scheduled to be released September 15, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at . This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.
(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.
(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.
1 Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
2 Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
3 Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
4 The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.
Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.
Labels:
August 13,
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Retail Sales - 8:30am - a little late - sorry. August 13,2009
Full report here - Please use link - more info I cannot format
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
JULY 2009
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.3 percent (±0.7%) below July 2008. Total sales for the May through July 2009 period were down 9.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2009 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from June 2009 and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 32.5 percent (±1.5%) from July 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 14.7 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
More at link
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Retail Sales
Jobless claims - 8:30am - Opps!
Full report here
Program Contact:
TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EDT), THURSDAY
August 13, 2009
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending Aug. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 558,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 554,000. The 4-week moving average was 565,000, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average of 556,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending Aug. 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 4.8 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 1 was 6,202,000, a decrease of 141,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,343,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,259,250, a decrease of 27,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,287,000.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.548 million.
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 479,824 in the week ending Aug. 8, an increase of 13,129 from the previous week. There were 373,858 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.4 percent during the week ending Aug. 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,860,918, a decrease of 158,904 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4 percent and the volume was 3,199,339.
Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 25.
Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,368 in the week ending Aug. 1, a decrease of 293 from the prior week. There were 2,020 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 39 from the preceding week.
There were 19,568 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending July 25, a decrease of 215 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 30,340, an increase of 233 from the prior week.
States reported 2,785,372 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending July 25, an increase of 30,981 from the prior week. There were 747,707 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 25 were in Michigan (6.8 percent), Puerto Rico (6.7), Oregon (6.3), Pennsylvania (6.2), Nevada (6.0), Wisconsin (5.6), Connecticut (5.5), California (5.4), New Jersey (5.4), and Illinois (5.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 1 were in Alabama (+721), Washington (+692), Nebraska (+306), Kentucky (+247), and Delaware (+157), while the largest decreases were in California (-7,258), Michigan (-7,031), Tennessee (-4,391), Florida (-3,358), and Georgia (-2,538).
More at link
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U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - 8:30am
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - full report here
U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES
- JULY 2009 -
The U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.7 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Decreases for both petroleum prices and nonpetroleum prices contributed to the July drop for overall import prices, which followed four consecutive monthly increases. Export prices also declined in July, falling 0.3 percent after advancing 1.0 percent the previous month.
Import Goods
A downturn in petroleum prices, which fell 2.8 percent in July, was the primary factor for the turnaround in overall import prices. Prices for import petroleum rose 66.6 percent over the previous five months, which led overall imports up 6.0 percent over that period. Despite the jump between February and June, petroleum prices fell 49.9 percent over the past year. Overall import prices posted the largest annual decline since the index was first published in 1982, falling 19.3 percent for the year ended in July. In addition, nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.2 percent in July, resuming a downward trend over the past year after advancing the past two months. Nonpetroleum prices fell 7.3 percent over the
past 12 months, the largest annual decrease since the index was first published in 1985.
The July decline in nonpetroleum prices was led by a 0.9 percent decrease in the price index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials which was driven by lower prices for chemicals and natural gas. Nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials prices declined 26.0 percent over the past 12 months. Consumer goods prices also decreased, falling 0.4 percent in July and 1.2 percent over the
past year. Lower prices for apparel, television and video receivers, and jewelry all contributed to the July decline.
In contrast, the price indexes for capital goods and automotive vehicles increased in July, rising 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Capital goods prices fell 1.5 percent for the year ended in July, whereas automotive vehicle prices were unchanged over the past year.
Export Goods
Export prices fell 0.3 percent in July after increasing for three consecutive months. The July decline was driven by a 4.9 percent decrease in agricultural prices, which also fell for the first time in four months. Sharp drops in corn and wheat prices were the largest contributors to the decline. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 22.3 percent over the past 12 months, the largest annual decline since the index was first published in 1985. Nonagricultural prices advanced 0.2 percent in July, but decreased 6.5 percent for the July 2008-2009 period. Overall export prices fell 8.1 percent over the past year, the largest annual decrease since the index was first published in 1983.
Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices increased for the fourth consecutive month, ticking up 0.1 percent in July. Higher prices for plastics were mostly offset by lower fuel prices. Despite the recent increases, the price index for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials decreased 21.0 percent over the past 12 months.
Capital goods prices and consumer goods prices also rose in July, advancing 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Over the past 12 months, prices for capital goods rose 1.6 percent, while prices for consumer goods rose 0.2 percent.
In contrast, prices for automotive vehicles decreased in July, falling 0.2 percent after decreasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The price index for automotive vehicles edged up 0.1 percent for the July 2008-2009 period.
Imports by Locality of Origin
The price indexes for imports from Mexico and from Canada each decreased in July, led by lower petroleum prices. Import prices from Mexico fell 1.1 percent in July and 16.8 percent over the past year. Similarly, prices for imports from Canada declined 1.0 percent for the month and 26.5 percent for the year ended in July.
Import prices from China fell 0.2 percent in July after ticking up 0.1 percent in June. Overall import prices from China decreased 3.3 percent for the July 2008-2009 period, the largest 12-month drop since the index was first published in December 2003.
In contrast, prices for imports from the European Union and from Japan advanced 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in July. The price index for imports from the European Union fell 7.2 percent for the year ended in July, led in part by lower petroleum prices, while import prices from Japan rose 1.6 percent.
Import and Export Services
Import air passenger fares decreased 3.1 percent in July after increasing 13.0 percent the previous month. The decline was led by a 6.0 percent decrease in European fares. Over the past year, import air passenger fares fell 20.1 percent, the largest 12-month drop since the index was first published in 1988.
Export air passenger fares rose in July, advancing 0.7 percent because of higher European and Latin America/Caribbean fares. Despite the July increase, export air passenger fares fell 24.3 percent, the largest 12-month drop since the index was first published in 1986.
The price index for import air freight advanced 0.3 percent in July after a 2.0 percent increase the previous month. The index fell 16.9 percent for the year ended in July. Export air freight prices rose 1.4 percent in July after decreasing for 10 consecutive months. Overall, export air freight prices declined 16.8 percent over the past year.
More at link, including a chart I cannot format
Pre-market - Thursday, August 13,2009
Futures already flying this morning on this rocket ship known as a stock market:
DJIA INDEX 9,412.00 93.00
S&P 500 1,012.90 10.70
NASDAQ 100 1,633.50 14.75
Gold 953 5 0.52%
Oil 71.69 +1.46 +2.08%
Today's economic calendar:
Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
RBC CASH Index 9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET
Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
Today's earnings reports:
Before market opens
Today after
Market wrap - a day late, sorry - 7:20am
The market roared higher today on a good note auction and the FED statement, after rising in the morning:
Dow 9,361.61 +120.16 (1.30%)
S&P 500 1,005.81 +11.46 (1.15%)
Nasdaq 1,998.72 +28.99 (1.47%)
Today be sector:
Today's heatmap:
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
FED Statement - 2:15pm
Full report here
Release Date: August 12, 2009
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Labels:
2009,
August 12,
FED statement
Roubini, Nassim Taleb, CNBC interviews this morning - 11:00am
It's always good to hear something other than the cheerleaders on CNBC bloviate about green shoots. It's even better when they have some perma bears on to balance the bullsh*t. A few video's for balance today. Enjoy, if you can understand them. They are kind of tough to understand, but worth the listen.
Existing-Home Sales Rise, Helped by Lower Prices - CNBC - 10:50am
Existing-Home Sales Rise, Helped by Lower Prices - CNBC
A real estate group says U.S. home prices posted a gain in the second quarter, another sign that the ailing housing market is finally coming to life.
AP
The National Association of Realtors says the median sales price in the quarter was $174,100, up 4 percent from the first quarter, but still almost 16 percent below a year ago.
Prices were still down from a year ago in 129 out of 155 metropolitan areas the group tracks.
Total sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million, from 4.58 million in the first quarter, but were still about 3 percent below a year ago.
Thirty-nine states reflected sales increases from the first quarter, and nine states were higher than one year ago.
"With low interest rates, lower home prices and a first-time buyer tax credit, we've been seeing healthy increases in home sales, which are a hopeful sign for the economy," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
Foreclosures and short sales made up more than one-third of the sales, weighing down home prices. The national median price was $174,100 — 15.6 percent lower on the year.
The largest sales gain between the first and second quarters was in Idaho, up 67.5 percent; followed by Hawaii which rose 24.2 percent; New York, up 22.3 percent, Wisconsin; with a 21.7 percent gain; and Nebraska with a 20.3 percent increase. Twelve other states experienced double-digit sales increases from the first quarter.
Year over year, California, Minnesota and Michigan are showing double-digit gains from the second quarter of 2008 but are off from the first quarter of this year.
Sharp price declines have continued to be concentrated in areas with high levels of foreclosures, such as California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
The biggest metro area price drop, of nearly 53 percent, was in Fort Myers, Fla. Prices also fell 35 percent or more in Phoenix, Riverside, Calif. and Las Vegas. The biggest price gain, of nearly 31 percent, was in Davenport, Iowa, followed by Cumberland, Md., at nearly 22 percent.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 15.0 percent in the second quarter, but are 8.4 percent below a year ago. In the midwest, existing-home sales rose 3.2 percent in the second quarter but are 5.3 percent lower on the year.
Sales rose 3.9 percent in the second quarter in the south, 7.2 percent lower on the year. In the west, existing-home sales fell 2.3 percent in the second quarter, but are 11.8 percent above a year ago.
Many economists now say that the worst of the housing recession is over, though foreclosures are expected to rise over the next year.
From the National association of Realtors 2nd Quarter Existing-Home Sales Rise in Most States, Helped by Affordable Metro Prices Washington, August 12, 2009 Existing-home sales in the second quarter showed healthy gains from the first quarter in the vast majority of states, and price declines have increased affordability in most metro areas, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors®. Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.76 million units in the second quarter from 4.58 million units in the first quarter, but remain 2.9 percent below the 4.90 million-unit pace in the second quarter of 2008. Thirty-nine states experienced sales increases from the first quarter, and nine states were higher than a year ago; the District of Columbia showed both quarterly and annual rises. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the sales gain appears to be sustainable. “With low interest rates, lower home prices and a first-time buyer tax credit, we’ve been seeing healthy increases in home sales, which are a hopeful sign for the economy,” he said. “There have been sustained sales gains in Arizona, Nevada and Florida, as well as diverse areas such as Maryland, the District of Columbia and Nebraska. More recently, we’ve seen strong double-digit gains in Idaho, Utah, New Mexico, Washington, Hawaii, New York, New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, Wisconsin, Indiana, South Dakota and Montana.” Yun explained housing’s impact on the overall economy. “Given the need for related goods and services, each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy – that’s how the housing engine traditionally pulls us out of recession. In addition, sales are drawing down inventory and that will help stabilize home values, which in turn will lessen foreclosure pressure and boost credit availability for other sectors of the economy.” During the second quarter, 129 out of 155 metropolitan statistical areas2 reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the second quarter of 2008, while 26 areas had price gains. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 36 percent of transactions in the second quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they typically are sold at a 15 to 20 percent discount; first-time buyers accounted for one-third of transactions. The national median existing single-family price was $174,100, which is 15.6 percent below the second quarter of 2008. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage declined to a record low 5.03 percent in the second quarter from 5.06 percent in the first quarter; the rate was 6.09 percent in the second quarter of 2008. NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said there are unique opportunities in the current market. “Housing affordability is hovering near record highs and there’s a wide selection of homes, but first-time buyers need to move quickly to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they have to finalize the transaction by November 30,” he said. “Various state, local and nonprofit programs target first-time buyers, and a Realtor® can help you identify the programs and financing options that are currently available in your area.” The largest sales gain between the first and second quarters was in Idaho, up 67.5 percent; followed by Hawaii which rose 24.2 percent; New York, up 22.3 percent, Wisconsin; with a 21.7 percent gain; and Nebraska with a 20.3 percent increase. Twelve other states experienced double-digit sales increases from the first quarter. Year over year, California, Minnesota and Michigan are showing double-digit gains from the second quarter of 2008 but are off from the first quarter of this year. The largest single-family home price increase in the second quarter was in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island area of Iowa and Illinois, where the median price of $113,200 rose 30.6 percent from a year ago. Next was the Cumberland area of Maryland and West Virginia at $123,500, up 21.7 percent from the second quarter of 2008, followed by Elmira, N.Y., where the median price increased 11.3 percent to $85,000. “The sharpest price declines continue to be concentrated in metros with high levels of foreclosures, including areas in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where distressed homes comprise many of the transactions,” Yun said Median second-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $55,700 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $569,500 in Honolulu. The second most expensive area in the second quarter was the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California, at $500,000, followed by San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $472,900. Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania at $71,500, and Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., at $81,200. “Recently sold homes are concentrated in lower price ranges. The median price may not be representative of overall values in a given area because many middle priced homes are not on the market,” Yun clarified. In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 57 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $176,900 in the second quarter, down 19.8 percent from the second quarter of 2008. Four metros showed annual increases in the median condo price and 53 areas had declines. The metros with condo price rises were the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News area of Virginia and North Carolina at $195,000, up 2.6 percent, followed by the Wichita, Kan., area, where the median price of $109,500 rose 2.0 percent from the second quarter of 2008, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, at $137,800, up 0.7 percent, and the Colorado Springs, Colo., area, which rose 0.2 percent to $145,200. Metro area median existing-condo prices in the second quarter ranged from $66,400 in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., to $405,700 in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont. The second most expensive reported condo market was Honolulu at $318,400, followed by Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $277,400. Other affordable condo markets include the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville area of California at $101,200 in the second quarter, and Tucson, Ariz., at $102,500. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 15.0 percent in the second quarter to a pace of 797,000 units but are 8.4 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 9.7 percent to $246,000 in the second quarter from the same quarter in 2008. After Elmira, the best gain in the region was in Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y., where the median price of $115,400 rose 6.7 percent from the second quarter of 2008, followed by Syracuse, N.Y., at $124,600, up 0.8 percent. In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 3.2 percent in the second quarter to a pace of 1.06 million but are 5.3 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was down 8.6 percent to $146,800 in the second quarter from the same period in 2008. After Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, the next strongest metro price increase in the region was in Bismarck, N.D., where the median price of $157,800 was 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, followed by Springfield, Ill., at $116,200, also up 3.5 percent, and Topeka, Kan., at $113,300, up 2.7 percent. In the South, existing-home sales increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.76 million but are 7.2 percent lower than the second quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $158,600 in the second quarter, down 10.3 percent from a year earlier. After Cumberland, the strongest price increase in the region was in Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas, with an 11.0 percent gain to $138,600, followed by, Jackson, Miss., at $140,100, up 8.2 percent, and Shreveport-Bossier City, La., at $146,800, up 3.0 percent. Existing-home sales in the West declined 2.3 percent in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.13 million but are 11.8 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $212,600 in the second quarter, which is 26.6 percent below the second quarter of 2008. The best metro price performances in the West were in Kennewick-Richland-Pasco area of Washington, where the median price of $163,900 rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier, and Yakima, Wash., at $162,800, also up 0.3 percent. No other areas covered in the region reported increases. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
From the National association of Realtors 2nd Quarter Existing-Home Sales Rise in Most States, Helped by Affordable Metro Prices Washington, August 12, 2009 Existing-home sales in the second quarter showed healthy gains from the first quarter in the vast majority of states, and price declines have increased affordability in most metro areas, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors®. Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.76 million units in the second quarter from 4.58 million units in the first quarter, but remain 2.9 percent below the 4.90 million-unit pace in the second quarter of 2008. Thirty-nine states experienced sales increases from the first quarter, and nine states were higher than a year ago; the District of Columbia showed both quarterly and annual rises. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the sales gain appears to be sustainable. “With low interest rates, lower home prices and a first-time buyer tax credit, we’ve been seeing healthy increases in home sales, which are a hopeful sign for the economy,” he said. “There have been sustained sales gains in Arizona, Nevada and Florida, as well as diverse areas such as Maryland, the District of Columbia and Nebraska. More recently, we’ve seen strong double-digit gains in Idaho, Utah, New Mexico, Washington, Hawaii, New York, New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, Wisconsin, Indiana, South Dakota and Montana.” Yun explained housing’s impact on the overall economy. “Given the need for related goods and services, each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy – that’s how the housing engine traditionally pulls us out of recession. In addition, sales are drawing down inventory and that will help stabilize home values, which in turn will lessen foreclosure pressure and boost credit availability for other sectors of the economy.” During the second quarter, 129 out of 155 metropolitan statistical areas2 reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the second quarter of 2008, while 26 areas had price gains. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 36 percent of transactions in the second quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they typically are sold at a 15 to 20 percent discount; first-time buyers accounted for one-third of transactions. The national median existing single-family price was $174,100, which is 15.6 percent below the second quarter of 2008. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage declined to a record low 5.03 percent in the second quarter from 5.06 percent in the first quarter; the rate was 6.09 percent in the second quarter of 2008. NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said there are unique opportunities in the current market. “Housing affordability is hovering near record highs and there’s a wide selection of homes, but first-time buyers need to move quickly to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they have to finalize the transaction by November 30,” he said. “Various state, local and nonprofit programs target first-time buyers, and a Realtor® can help you identify the programs and financing options that are currently available in your area.” The largest sales gain between the first and second quarters was in Idaho, up 67.5 percent; followed by Hawaii which rose 24.2 percent; New York, up 22.3 percent, Wisconsin; with a 21.7 percent gain; and Nebraska with a 20.3 percent increase. Twelve other states experienced double-digit sales increases from the first quarter. Year over year, California, Minnesota and Michigan are showing double-digit gains from the second quarter of 2008 but are off from the first quarter of this year. The largest single-family home price increase in the second quarter was in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island area of Iowa and Illinois, where the median price of $113,200 rose 30.6 percent from a year ago. Next was the Cumberland area of Maryland and West Virginia at $123,500, up 21.7 percent from the second quarter of 2008, followed by Elmira, N.Y., where the median price increased 11.3 percent to $85,000. “The sharpest price declines continue to be concentrated in metros with high levels of foreclosures, including areas in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where distressed homes comprise many of the transactions,” Yun said Median second-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $55,700 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $569,500 in Honolulu. The second most expensive area in the second quarter was the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California, at $500,000, followed by San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $472,900. Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania at $71,500, and Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., at $81,200. “Recently sold homes are concentrated in lower price ranges. The median price may not be representative of overall values in a given area because many middle priced homes are not on the market,” Yun clarified. In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 57 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $176,900 in the second quarter, down 19.8 percent from the second quarter of 2008. Four metros showed annual increases in the median condo price and 53 areas had declines. The metros with condo price rises were the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News area of Virginia and North Carolina at $195,000, up 2.6 percent, followed by the Wichita, Kan., area, where the median price of $109,500 rose 2.0 percent from the second quarter of 2008, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, at $137,800, up 0.7 percent, and the Colorado Springs, Colo., area, which rose 0.2 percent to $145,200. Metro area median existing-condo prices in the second quarter ranged from $66,400 in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., to $405,700 in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont. The second most expensive reported condo market was Honolulu at $318,400, followed by Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $277,400. Other affordable condo markets include the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville area of California at $101,200 in the second quarter, and Tucson, Ariz., at $102,500. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 15.0 percent in the second quarter to a pace of 797,000 units but are 8.4 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 9.7 percent to $246,000 in the second quarter from the same quarter in 2008. After Elmira, the best gain in the region was in Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y., where the median price of $115,400 rose 6.7 percent from the second quarter of 2008, followed by Syracuse, N.Y., at $124,600, up 0.8 percent. In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 3.2 percent in the second quarter to a pace of 1.06 million but are 5.3 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was down 8.6 percent to $146,800 in the second quarter from the same period in 2008. After Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, the next strongest metro price increase in the region was in Bismarck, N.D., where the median price of $157,800 was 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, followed by Springfield, Ill., at $116,200, also up 3.5 percent, and Topeka, Kan., at $113,300, up 2.7 percent. In the South, existing-home sales increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.76 million but are 7.2 percent lower than the second quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $158,600 in the second quarter, down 10.3 percent from a year earlier. After Cumberland, the strongest price increase in the region was in Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas, with an 11.0 percent gain to $138,600, followed by, Jackson, Miss., at $140,100, up 8.2 percent, and Shreveport-Bossier City, La., at $146,800, up 3.0 percent. Existing-home sales in the West declined 2.3 percent in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.13 million but are 11.8 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $212,600 in the second quarter, which is 26.6 percent below the second quarter of 2008. The best metro price performances in the West were in Kennewick-Richland-Pasco area of Washington, where the median price of $163,900 rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier, and Yakima, Wash., at $162,800, also up 0.3 percent. No other areas covered in the region reported increases. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Labels:
Excisting home sales
Weekly Crude Report - 10:45am
Full report here - more info comes out this afternoon, but this is the non formatted version.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 7, 2009
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 14.4 million barrels per day
during the week ending August 7, 69 thousand barrels per day below the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 83.5 percent of their operable capacity
last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.9 million
barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging
3.8 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.5 million barrels per day last week, up 243
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, 642 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)
last week averaged nearly 1.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 162 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At
352.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper boundary
of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.8
million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for
this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.5 million
barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week,
and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 18.9
million barrels per day, down by 3.0 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about
9.1 million barrels per day, unchanged from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.3 million barrels per day over the last
four weeks, down by 9.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 12.6 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.
The tables that follow display the latest U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet and the
most recent 4 weeks of Weekly Petroleum Status Report data.
More at link - tables I cannot format correctly
Labels:
Weekly Crude report
International Trade - 8:30am
Full report here
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 12, 2009
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
NEWS
U.S. Department of Commerce * Washington, DC 20230
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
June 2009
Goods and Services
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the
Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $125.8 billion
and imports of $152.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $27.0
billion, up from $26.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $2.4 billon more
than May exports of $123.4 billion. June imports were $3.5 billion more than May
imports of $149.3 billion.
In June, the goods deficit increased $1.2 billion from May to $38.4 billion, and the
services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $11.4 billion. Exports of goods
increased $1.9 billion to $84.0 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.0 billion
to $122.4 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $41.8 billion, and
imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $30.4 billion.
In June, the goods and services deficit decreased $33.2 billion from June 2008.
Exports were down $35.8 billion, or 22.2 percent, and imports were down $69.0
billion, or 31.1 percent.
Goods
The May to June increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial
supplies and materials ($1.2 billion); capital goods ($0.4 billion); foods, feeds,
and beverages ($0.3 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1
billion). Consumer goods and other goods were virtually unchanged.
The May to June increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial
supplies and materials ($3.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9
billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion); and other goods ($0.1
billion). Decreases occurred in consumer goods ($1.7 billion) and capital goods
($0.1 billion). The June 2008 to June 2009 decrease in exports of goods reflected
decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($12.4 billion); capital goods ($8.0
billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($5.3 billion); consumer goods
($1.9 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.9 billion); and other goods ($0.8
billion).
The June 2008 to June 2009 decrease in imports of goods reflected decreases in
industrial supplies and materials ($36.3 billion); capital goods ($9.7 billion);
automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($9.4 billion); consumer goods ($7.6
billion); other goods ($0.9 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.6
billion).
Services
Services exports increased $0.5 billion from May to June. The increase was more
than accounted for by increases in other private services (which includes items such
as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial
services), travel, other transportation (which includes freight and port services),
and passenger fares. Changes in other categories of services exports were small.
Services imports increased $0.4 billion from May to June. The increase was mostly
accounted for by increases in other private services, travel, passenger fares, and
direct defense expenditures. Changes in other categories of services imports were
small.
The June 2008 to June 2009 decrease in exports of services was $5.4 billion. The
largest decreases were in travel ($1.8 billion), other transportation ($1.7
billion), and other private services ($0.7 billion). Within other private services,
the largest decreases were in business, professional, and technical services and
financial services.
The June 2008 to June 2009 decrease in imports of services was $3.8 billion. The
largest decreases were in other transportation ($2.0 billion), travel ($0.9
billion), and passenger fares ($0.5 billion).
Goods and Services Moving Average
For the three months ending in June, exports of goods and services averaged $123.5
billion, while imports of goods and services averaged $150.8 billion, resulting in
an average trade deficit of $27.3 billion. For the three months ending in May, the
average trade deficit was $27.8 billion, reflecting average exports of $122.9
billion and average imports of $150.7 billion.
Selected Not Seasonally Adjusted Goods Details
The June figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong $1.4 ($1.5
for May), Australia $1.0 ($1.0), Singapore $0.5 ($0.3), and Egypt $0.2 ($0.2).
Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $18.4 ($17.5), OPEC $5.9
($4.1), the European Union $4.5 ($2.8), Japan $3.7 ($1.9), Mexico $3.4 ($3.9),
Venezuela $1.8 ($1.3), Canada $1.6 ($0.5), Nigeria $1.3 ($0.8), Korea $0.9 ($0.7),
and Taiwan $0.6 ($0.9).
Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $20.7 billion in June and imports
were $25.3 billion, resulting in a deficit of $4.6 billion. June exports were $1.5
billion more than the $19.2 billion in May, while June imports were $2.6 billion
more than the $22.8 billion in May.
Revisions
Goods carry-over in June was $0.1 billion (0.1 percent) for exports and $0.5 billion
(0.4 percent) for imports. For May, revised export carry-over was $0.1 billion (0.1
percent), revised down from $0.1 billion (0.2 percent). For May, revised import
carry-over was $0.2 billion (0.2 percent), revised down from $0.6 billion (0.6
percent).
Services exports for May were virtually unrevised at $41.3 billion. An upward
revision in travel was mostly offset by a downward revision in other transportation.
Services imports for May were revised up $0.1 billion to $30.0 billion. The
revision was mostly accounted for by an upward revision in passenger fares.
Labels:
International Trade,
July
Pre-market - August 12, 2009 7:20am
Futures up just a tad today:
DJIA INDEX 9,232.00 16.00
S&P 500 993.80 0.90
NASDAQ 100 1,600.00 3.50
Gold 948 1 0.07%
Oil 69.73 0.21 0.30%
Today's economic calendar:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
International Trade 8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM ET
Earnings reports:
Today before open
Today after close
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Productivity and Costs - 8:30AM
Full report here
Transmission of this material is embargoed until USDL-09-0933
8:30 a.m. (EDT) Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Technical information: (202) 691-5606 dprweb@bls.gov www.bls.gov/lpc
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 PressOffice@bls.gov
PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS
Second Quarter 2009, Preliminary
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today
reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by output per hour of
all persons--for the second quarter of 2009. The seasonally adjusted
annual rates of productivity change in the second quarter were:
6.3 percent in the business sector and
6.4 percent in the nonfarm business sector.
Productivity gains in both sectors were the largest since the third quarter
of 2003, and were due to hours worked declining faster than output.
In manufacturing, the preliminary productivity changes in the second
quarter were:
5.3 percent in manufacturing,
3.9 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and
2.0 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing.
The increases in productivity in all manufacturing sectors were the
result of hours falling faster than output. Output and hours in
manufacturing, which includes about 11 percent of U.S. business-sector
employment, tend to vary more from quarter to quarter than data for the
aggregate business and nonfarm business sectors. Second-quarter measures
are summarized in table A and appear in detail in tables 1 through 5.
The data sources and methods used in the preparation of the
manufacturing series differ from those used in preparing the business and
nonfarm business series, and these measures are not directly comparable.
Output measures for business and nonfarm business are based on measures of
gross domestic product prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the
U.S. Department of Commerce. Quarterly output measures for manufacturing
reflect indexes of industrial production independently prepared by the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. See Technical Notes for
further information on data sources.
More at link
Labels:
Productivity and Costs
Pre-Market - August 11, 2009 - 8:00am
Futures down a little today:
DJIA INDEX 9,303.00 -17.00
S&P 500 1,005.00 -2.50
NASDAQ 100 1,610.50 -2.00
Gold 947 -13 -1.31%
Oil 70.82 +0.22 +0.31%
Today's economic calendar:
FOMC Meeting Begins
Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET
Redbook 8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
Over 50 earnings today
Monday, August 10, 2009
Market wrap - 4:30
Pretty uneventful day in the market:
Dow 9,337.95 -32.12 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,007.10 -3.38 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,992.24 -8.01 (-0.40%)
Gold 947 -13 -1.31%
Oil 70.96 -0.33 -0.46%
Today by sector:
Today's heatmap:
Pre-market - August 10, 2009 - 8:30am
Futures down slightly this morning:
DJIA INDEX 9,304.00 -21.00
S&P 500 1,003.80 -2.60
NASDAQ 100 1,615.25 -4.50
Gold 960 -3 -0.35%
Oil 70.89 -0.03 -0.04%
Today's economic calendar:
4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET
6-Month Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET
Well over 100 earnings reports today
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