ISM manufacturing data - 10:00am

Full report here August 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® PMI at 52.9% DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2009. New Orders and Production Growing Employment and Inventories Contracting Supplier Deliveries Slower (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August, following 18 consecutive months of contraction, and the overall economy grew for the fourth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The year-and-a-half decline in manufacturing output has come to an end, as 11 of 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth when comparing August to July. While this is certainly a positive occurrence, we have to keep in mind that it is the beginning of a new cycle and that all industries are not yet participating in the growth. The August index of 52.9 percent is the highest since June 2007. The 4 percentage point increase was driven by significant strength in the New Orders Index, which is up 9.6 points to 64.9 percent, the highest since December 2004. The growth appears sustainable in the short term, as inventories have been reduced for 40 consecutive months and supply chains will have to re-stock to meet this new demand." PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY Eleven of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in August. These industries — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting contraction in August — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ... * "Production is picking up as demand [for] orders is being accelerated." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products) * "Demand from automotive manufacturers increasing thanks to 'Cash for Clunkers.'" (Fabricated Metal Products) * "In addition to improved business come the complications of a supply chain drained of inventory." (Paper Products) * "The sudden increase in customer demand, plus the low inventories held at services centers, is causing a shortage in the supply of raw steel." (Transportation Equipment) * "[It] appears customers' inventories are getting low, and they are cautiously placing orders." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)

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Construction spending - 10:00am

Full report here JULY 2009 CONSTRUCTION AT $958.0 BILLION ANNUAL RATE The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during July 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $958.0 billion, 0.2 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised June estimate of $959.5 billion. The July figure is 10.5 percent (±1.8%) below the July 2008 estimate of $1,070.2 billion. During the first 7 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $543.8 billion, 11.4 percent (±1.3%) below the $613.5 billion for the same period in 2008. PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $630.4 billion, 0.1 percent (±1.0%)* above the revised June estimate of $629.6 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $245.6 billion in July, 2.3 percent (±1.3%) above the revised June estimate of $240.1 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $384.9 billion in July, 1.2 percent (±1.0%) below the revised June estimate of $389.5 billion. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION In July, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $327.6 billion, 0.7 percent (±2.6%)* below the revised June estimate of $329.9 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $90.8 billion, 1.3 percent (±3.7%)* below the revised June estimate of $92.0 illion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $83.8 billion, 1.0 percent (±7.0%)* below the revised June estimate of $84.7 billion. August 2009 data will be released on October 1, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. For more detailed data and methodologies, go to our website:http://www.census.gov/constructionspending

Pending home sales index - 10:00am

Full report here Washington, September 01, 2009 Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2 percent to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0 percent higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,” he said. Pending Home Sales on a Record Roll Washington, September 01, 2009 Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2 percent to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0 percent higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,” he said. “Other buyers are taking advantage of low home values before prices turn higher. Nationally, the typical mortgage payment now takes less than 25 percent of a middle-income family’s monthly income to buy a median priced home, with payment percentages so far in 2009 being the lowest on record dating back to 1970. As long as home buyers stay within their budget, mortgage payments will be very manageable,” Yun said. NAR estimates that about 1.8 to 2.0 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit this year, with approximately 350,000 additional sales that would not have taken place without the credit. Buyers have little time to act because they must complete the transaction by November 30 to qualify for the credit. Unless extended, contracts signed but not completed by that date will not be eligible – it is taking approximately two months to complete home sales in the current market. The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast declined 3.0 percent to 78.8 in July but is 4.7 percent higher than July 2008. In the Midwest the index slipped 2.0 percent to 88.1 but is 8.1 percent above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales activity rose 3.1 percent to an index of 103.8 in July and is 12.0 percent above July 2008. In the West the index jumped 12.1 percent to 112.5 and is 20.0 percent above a year ago. NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said Congress needs to keep the momentum going. “Even with a good recovery taking place, the market is not yet back to normal. With a gradual absorption of inventory, we are on the cusp of a general stabilization in home prices,” he said. “To ensure that housing has a broad stimulus to the overall economy and stays on sound footing, we’re encouraging Congress to extend the tax credit into 2010, and to expand it to all buyers of primary residences. The faster we stabilize home prices, the fewer families will face foreclosure and the quicker credit can be extended to other sectors of the economy,” McMillan said. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index2 stood at 158.5 in July, below the peak set in April but is still 36.0 percentage points higher than a year ago. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income. Yun expects existing-home sales to rise through the fourth quarter. “Unless the tax credit is extended, no one should be surprised to see home sales drop in the first quarter of next year,” he said. “However, the fundamentals of the housing market and the economy are trending up, and we expect home sales to generally pick up in the second quarter of 2010. The buyer psychology may be shifting from, ‘Why buy now when I can purchase later,’ to ‘I don’t want to miss out on a recovery’.” The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.