Beige Book - 2:00

Full report here Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and based on information collected on or before November 20, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials. Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic conditions have generally improved modestly since the last report. Eight Districts indicated some pickup in activity or improvement in conditions, while the remaining four--Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta--reported that conditions were little changed and/or mixed. Consumer spending was reported to have picked up moderately since the last report, for both general merchandise and vehicles; a number of Districts noted relatively robust sales of used autos. Most Districts indicated that non-auto retailers were holding lean inventories going into the holiday season. Tourism activity varied across Districts. Manufacturing conditions were said to be, on balance, steady to moderately improving across most of the country, while conditions in the nonfinancial service sector generally strengthened somewhat, though with some variation across Districts and across industries. Residential real estate conditions were somewhat improved from very low levels, on balance, led by the lower end of the market. Most Districts reported some pickup in home sales, though prices were generally said to be flat or declining modestly; residential construction was characterized as weak, but some Districts did note some pickup in activity. Commercial real estate markets and construction activity were depicted as very weak and, in many cases, deteriorating. Financial institutions generally reported steady to weaker loan demand, continued tight credit standards, and steady or deteriorating loan quality. In the agricultural sector, the fall harvest was delayed in the eastern half of the nation due to excessively wet conditions during October and early November. Most energy-producing Districts noted a slight uptick in activity in the sector since the last report. Labor market conditions remained weak since the last report, though there were signs of stabilization and scattered signs of improvement. While some Districts reported upward pressure on commodity prices, they saw little or no indication of upward wage pressures or of any significant increase in prices of finished goods. Consumer Spending and Tourism Consumer spending strengthened since the last report, with sales of both general merchandise and autos improving across much of the country. Non-auto sales were reported to have picked up in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts; sales were described as steady or mixed in the Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts. St. Louis described retail sales as below expectations and down from a year earlier. Auto sales generally improved since the last report, in some cases rebounding from a brief dip after the "cash-for-clunkers" program ended. Increased vehicle sales were reported from New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas, while sales were described as flat or mixed in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts. A number of Districts reported that used vehicles have been selling better than new ones. Most Districts also noted that retailers were holding leaner inventories this holiday season, though some indicate that retailers have recently become more optimistic about the holiday-season outlook. Auto dealers' inventories, largely depleted during the cash-for-clunkers program, have been or are being rebuilt. Tourism was mixed across those Districts reporting. Travel and tourism--especially leisure travel--was described as robust or improved in the New York, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Atlanta and Kansas City characterized tourism as sluggish, while Richmond and Minneapolis described it as mixed; Richmond noted that tourism has been adversely affected by severe and damaging coastal storms, while Kansas City characterized the outlook as "grim." New York indicated that business travel remained sluggish, but Minneapolis and Dallas note a slight pickup. Nonfinancial Services Activity in the service sector generally picked up since the last report, though results were mixed across Districts and across service industries. New York and Philadelphia reported that service-sector activity overall remained steady to up slightly, while St. Louis noted expanding activity. The information technology industry was reported to be showing improvement in the Boston, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts. A pickup in activity at staffing firms was reported by Boston and Dallas, whereas New York noted that activity remained sluggish. Strength in health services was noted in the Boston and Richmond Districts. Shipping activity was characterized as flat in the Cleveland, Atlanta, and Kansas City District, while Dallas reports some gain; however, Dallas and Atlanta both noted particular weakness in rail shipping activity. Professional and business support firms reportedly registered some improvement in the St. Louis and Minneapolis Districts but flat to declining activity in Richmond and San Francisco. Manufacturing Most Districts reported mixed to moderately improving manufacturing conditions since the last report. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco all noted modest increases in manufacturing activity within their Districts. Manufacturing conditions in the Boston and Dallas Districts were characterized as mixed, with some improvement noted for biopharmaceuticals companies in Boston and high-tech manufacturing firms in Dallas. By contrast, Richmond and Chicago both reported that manufacturing activity had leveled off since the last report, while activity continued to decline in the Atlanta and St. Louis Districts, although at a somewhat slower pace than the last report. Tighter credit limited the ability of customers to place new orders in the Richmond District, while in the Chicago District, contacts noted a slowdown in the restocking of inventories. Increases in activity related to the transportation industry were cited in the Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts, although such activity was mixed in the Dallas District and reported as declining in the San Francisco District. Several Districts noted an uptick in food-related production. Many Districts reported that their contacts were optimistic about the near-term outlook. Manufacturers in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts expected business conditions to improve in the coming months, while producers in the Cleveland District expressed uncertainty about near-term conditions. The outlook in the Dallas District was mixed, with most manufacturers expressing cautious optimism about the near term and construction-related manufacturers expressing pessimism about the future largely due to expectations of prolonged weakness in commercial real estate. Real Estate and Construction Home sales and construction activity improved across much of the nation, though prices were generally said to be flat or still declining somewhat. A majority of Districts reported that the lower-priced segment of the housing market has outperformed the high end. Increases in sales activity were reported in the Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, whereas sales were described as steady or mixed in the New York and Philadelphia Districts. Multifamily housing markets deteriorated further in the New York and Chicago Districts. More broadly, a number of eastern Districts reported continued declines in home prices--specifically, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. In contrast, prices were said to have firmed somewhat in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts and stabilized in the Chicago and Kansas City Districts. Most reports maintained that the lower end of the market has outperformed the higher end: New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Kansas City all noted relative weakness at the high end of the market, with relative strength at the lower end; in most cases, this strength was largely attributed to the homebuyer tax credit (which was recently reinstated and expanded to include existing owners). Despite the firming in sales, the level of new residential construction activity was generally characterized as weak, though recent trends have been mixed--Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas noted some pickup in home construction, whereas the Chicago and St. Louis Districts reported declines. Residential construction was described as flat or stabilizing by Cleveland, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. Commercial real estate conditions were widely characterized as weak and, in many cases, deteriorating further. Market conditions were reported to have weakened in virtually all Districts, with rising vacancy rates, downward pressure on rents, and little, if any, new development. Expectations for 2010 were also quite low. Boston characterized the commercial real estate outlook as "bleak," Dallas noted that construction was at "historically low levels," and Kansas City described the sector as "distressed." Still, some Districts noted scattered signs of encouragement: Cleveland and Chicago referenced public-works projects as a source of increased business, Richmond noted signs of increased leasing activity from the health and education sectors, Atlanta indicated a modest pickup in new development projects, Minneapolis noted some recently started hotel and retail development, and San Francisco cited slight improvement in availability of financing for new development. Banking and Finance Banks reported steady to softer conditions in most Districts. Loan demand was said to have weakened in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. New York noted particular weakness in demand for home mortgage loans, whereas Richmond and St. Louis reported this to be the strongest segment of late. For the most part, the weakness appears to have been concentrated in the commercial sector, though Boston and Chicago reported some pickup in commercial real estate lending--largely refinancing. Credit quality showed signs of deteriorating in the New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts but was described as stable or mixed in Cleveland, Chicago, and Kansas City, with Chicago reporting some improvement outside of commercial real estate. Increasingly tight credit standards were reported in the New York, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco--largely on commercial loans. Agriculture and Natural Resources Excessively wet conditions during October and early November were reported in a number of Districts. As a result, the fall harvest was delayed in many parts of the Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts. Flooding from Tropical Storm Ida and a November "nor'easter" damaged crops and delayed planting throughout the Richmond District, and Virginia health officials closed fishing in all Chesapeake Bay tributaries and temporarily banned the harvesting of shellfish due to potential storm water contamination. By contrast, rainfall in the Dallas District helped alleviate drought conditions experienced in many parts of the region. Contacts in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts noted that corn and soybean prices rallied over the past month, although a wide variation in margins was expected for crop farms due to differences in input costs. Losses for livestock operations occurred in the Chicago and Kansas City Districts. Most energy-producing Districts reported a slight uptick in activity in extraction industries since the last report. Contacts in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts noted steady to increasing oil and natural gas production within their regions, albeit from low levels of production observed earlier this year. Contacts in the Cleveland District also reported that a sharp decline in coal production had leveled out since the last report. In general, oil prices increased somewhat, while reports on the price of natural gas were mixed due in large part to differences in inventory levels across Districts. Mining activity in the Minneapolis District increased. Employment, Wages, and Prices Labor market conditions remained weak since the last report, with further layoffs, sluggish hiring, and high levels of unemployment in most Districts. However, contacts in the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Richmond Districts reported that the pace of job cuts generally slowed in their regions, and most contacts in the Dallas District reported stable employment levels. Despite generally weak employment conditions, some signs of improvement were noted. For example, contacts in Boston reported that they were beginning to hire and reverse pay cuts or freezes that were implemented earlier in the year, and contacts in the St. Louis District reported that the service sector had started to expand recently. Expectations for the holiday season were mixed across Districts, with contacts in the New York and Dallas Districts reporting lighter-than-normal seasonal hiring and/or increases in the hours of existing employees, as opposed to hiring temporary workers, to meet the seasonal demand. On the other hand, most retailers in the Richmond District have hired the usual number of seasonal workers this year. Districts generally reported little or no upward wage pressures, while some Districts noted upward pressure in commodity prices, and most Districts reported stable selling prices. Wages were largely reported to be holding steady in the Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Most Districts reported stable prices overall, although some reported higher input prices, largely for energy and other commodities used in production, with a limited ability to raise selling prices. Prices were reported as moderately lower in the Kansas City District, and downward price pressures were cited for some professional services and intermodal transportation firms in the Dallas District. Some makers of food products and chemicals in the Philadelphia District reported raising prices, and the prices of computer memory chips continued to firm in the San Francisco District. Retailers in several Districts indicated that they have managed inventory levels in an effort to prevent the steep price discounting that occurred last year, however, some promotional price discounting is expected through the holiday season.

Pre-market - Wednesday, December 2

Futures just plain flat today. Not worth posting - just flat. Today's economic news: MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET Tim Geithner Speaks 9:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET Beige Book 2:00 PM ET Before open: CHRS Charming Shoppes Inc. Services Apparel Stores DSGX Descartes Systems Group Inc. Technology Business Software & Services GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. Consumer Goods Textile - Apparel Clothing JOSB Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. Services Apparel Stores PTRY Pantry Inc. Services Grocery Stores SYNO Synovis Life Technologies Inc. Healthcare Medical Appliances & Equipment After close: ARO Aeropostale Inc. Services Apparel Stores ATCO American Technology Corp. Technology Diversified Electronics CWST Casella Waste Systems Inc. Industrial Goods Waste Management DDMX Dynamex Inc. Services Trucking JAS Jo-Ann Stores, Inc. Services Specialty Retail, Other PSS Collective Brands, Inc. Services Apparel Stores SEAC SeaChange International Inc. Technology Processing Systems & Products SIGM Sigma Designs, Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Specialized SNPS Synopsys Inc. Technology Technical & System Software

Market wrap - 6:30

Just another day in the casino. Large gap up this morning, traded a bit higher during the day, only to sell off a bit in the last hour and a half. Notice GS & AAPL, the leaders since March. Dow 10,472 127 1.23% Nasdaq 2,176 31 1.46% S&P 500 1,109 +13 +1.21% Gold 1,200 +18 +1.51% Oil 77.93 +1.09 +1.41%

ISM manufacturing - 10:00 - late because link did not work

Full report here November 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® PMI at 53.6% DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2009. New Orders, Production and Employment Growing Inventories Contracting Supplier Deliveries Slower (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in November. While the rate of growth slowed when compared to October, the signs are still encouraging for continuing growth as both new orders and production are still at very positive levels, and the Prices Index fell 10 points, signaling less inflationary pressure on manufacturers' costs. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing is continuing, but many are still struggling based on their comments." PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY In November, 12 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth. The industries — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery. The five industries reporting contraction in November are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Plastics & Rubber Products. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ... * "Becoming concerned about the value of the U.S. dollar." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products) * "Low value of the dollar driving commodity costs higher." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) * "Demand from automotive manufacturers remains strong and building." (Fabricated Metal Products) * "Capital construction seems to be picking up, and we are seeing more jobs that are bid out." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components) * "Steady increase in business." (Primary Metals) COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Aluminum (5); Copper (6); Copper Based Products (5); Natural Gas (2); Oil; and Steel (5). Commodities Down in Price No commodities are reported down in price. Commodities in Short Supply Electronic Components is the only commodity reported in short supply. Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. PMI Manufacturing growth decelerated in November as the PMI registered 53.6 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points when compared to October's reading of 55.7 percent. This continues the recovery in the sector, but at a slower rate of growth. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the seventh consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the fourth consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through November (45.4 percent) corresponds to a 1.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for November (53.6 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.9 percent increase in real GDP annually." THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Pending home sales - 10:00

Full report here Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future. The PHSI in the Northeast surged 19.9 percent to 100.2 in October and is 44.2 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 11.6 percent to 109.6 and is 36.6 percent higher than October 2008. Pending home sales in the South increased 5.4 percent to an index of 115.4, which is 31.6 percent above a year ago. In the West the index fell 11.2 percent to 127.7 but is 21.9 percent above October 2008. Yun cautioned that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December until early spring when we get another surge, but the weak job market remains a major concern and could slow the recovery process. “Still, as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” Yun said. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Construction spending - 10:00

Full report here OCTOBER 2009 CONSTRUCTION AT $910.8 BILLION ANNUAL RATE The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $910.8 billion, nearly the same as (±1.6%)* the revised September estimate of $910.4 billion. The October figure is 14.4 percent (±1.6%) below the October 2008 estimate of $1,064.1 billion. During the first 10 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $794.0 billion, 12.6 percent (±1.1%) below the $908.9 billion for the same period in 2008. PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $589.0 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.1%)* above the revised September estimate of $587.2 illion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $250.3 billion in October, 4.4 percent (±1.3%) above the revised September estimate of $239.7 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $338.6 billion in October, 2.5 percent (±1.1%) below the revised September estimate of $347.5 billion. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $321.8 billion, 0.4 percent (±2.4%)* below the revised September estimate of $323.2 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $85.7 billion, 1.1 percent (±2.9%)* above the revised September estimate of $84.7 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $87.2 billion, 0.3 percent (±6.6%)* below the revised September estimate of $87.4 billion.

Pre-market - Tuesday - December 1

Futures up on a falling dollar DJIA INDEX 10,400.00 66.00 S&P 500 1,102.80 8.00 NASDAQ 100 1,781.00 13.50 Today's economic reports: Motor Vehicle Sales ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET Today's earnings reports: Before open: BECN Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. Services Building Materials Wholesale GIGM GigaMedia Ltd. Technology Internet Software & Services ISLE Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. Services Resorts & Casinos LDR Landauer Inc. Services Research Services NPD China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. Services Drug Stores SPLS Staples, Inc. Services Specialty Retail, Other THO Thor Industries Inc. Consumer Goods Recreational Vehicles UTI Universal Technical Institute Inc. Services Education & Training Services After close: CFI Culp Inc. Industrial Goods Textile Industrial CPRT Copart Inc. Services Auto Dealerships GAME Shanda Games Limited Services Entertainment - Diversified LTXC LTX-Credence Corporation Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials SNDA Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. Technology Internet Software & Services

Market wrap - a day late -

Dow 10,345 35 0.34% Nasdaq 2,145 6 0.29% S&P 500 1,096 4 0.38% GlobalDow1,961 +21 +1.07% Gold 1,183 8 0.64% Oil 78.05 0.83 1.07%

Chicago PMI - 9:45

Highlights * The Chicago PMI index jumped over the 50 point threshold for the first time since September 2008 as the index grew to 54.2 in October. The consensus expected the index to increase slightly to 49.0 from 46.1 and remain in the contraction phase. * The production index increased to 63.9 from 47.2 and orders rose to 61.4 from 46.3. * Inventories continued to contract and have gotten worse over the last month as the index declined to 32.2 from 38.9. * The only other sector that continued to contract was employment, which declined to 38.3 from 38.8. * Other components of the index showed the manufacturing sector strengthening including order backlogs, which increased to 41.9 from 36.7 and prices paid, which declined to 48.6 from 51.3. Key Factors * The entire index showed signs of a sustainable expansionary cycle. * Unlike last month's national index, where production grew on the anticipation of new orders that never came in, production and new orders posted strong growth and entered an expansionary phase in the Chicago region. Big Picture * The Chicago PMI has little overall economic value, and is only watched by the financial markets because it is usually released one day in advance of the similar national ISM manufacturing survey. A significant move in this regional survey will therefore sometimes be seen as having predictive value for the ISM index.

Pre-market - Monday, November 30, 2009

Futures down slightly on the Dubai worries. DJIA INDEX 10,280.00 -12.00 S&P 500 1,087.70 -1.80 NASDAQ 100 1,757.25 -2.00 Today's economic reports: Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports. Before open: NRGY Inergy, L.P. Services Specialty Retail, Other PATR Patriot Transportation Holding Inc. Services Trucking TLVT Telvent Git S.A. Technology Computer Based Systems UNFY Unify Corp. Technology Business Software & Services After close: GES Guess? Inc. Services Apparel Stores LTON Linktone Ltd. Technology Wireless Communications OVTI OmniVision Technologies Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits SNS Steak n Shake Co. Services Restaurants SOFOD Sonic Foundry Inc. Technology Application Software ZOLT Zoltek Companies Inc. Industrial Goods Industrial Electrical Equipment

Market wrap - 1:15

Not as bad as it could have been, but are we out of the woods now? Let's see what happens Monday when everyone is back, and the exposure to Dubai has been digested. Dow 10,310 -154 -1.48% Nasdaq 2,138 -38 -1.73% S&P 500 1,091 -19 -1.72% Gold 1,176 -13 -1.10% Oil 75.76 -2.19 -2.81%

Pre-market - 8:15

Futures down big, but off the lows overnight on the news out of Dubai and their debt problem. DJIA INDEX 10,222.00 -220.00 S&P 500 1,079.10 -29.80 NASDAQ 100 1,745.50 -48.75 Today's economic calendar: None - Market closes at 1:00 Today's earnings reports: Before open: FRO Frontline Ltd. Services Shipping SFL Ship Finance International Limited Services Shipping After close = none

Jobless claims - 8:30

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Nov. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 466,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 501,000. The 4-week moving average was 496,500, a decrease of 16,500 from the previous week's revised average of 513,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the week ending Nov. 14, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.3 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 14 was 5,423,000, a decrease of 190,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,613,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,613,750, a decrease of 98,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,712,250. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.866 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21, an increase of 68,080 from the previous week. There were 609,138 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent during the week ending Nov. 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,070,712, an increase of 187,642 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 3,782,040. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Nov. 7. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,346 in the week ending Nov. 14, an increase of 45 from the prior week. There were 2,026 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 408 from the preceding week. There were 22,941 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Nov. 7, a decrease of 1,962 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 34,598, a decrease of 301 from the prior week. States reported 3,639,036 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Nov. 7, an increase of 16,370 from the prior week. There were 766,565 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Nov. 7 were in Puerto Rico (6.2 percent), Oregon (5.5), Alaska (5.1), Nevada (5.1), Pennsylvania (4.9), Wisconsin (4.9), Arkansas (4.7), California (4.7), Michigan (4.6), North Carolina (4.6), and Washington (4.6). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 14 were in Florida (+1,313), Indiana (+607), Hawaii (+278), and North Dakota (+81), while the largest decreases were in California (-7,987), Texas (-4,710), Pennsylvania (-4,321), Wisconsin (-2,716), and Ohio (-2,486). More at link with formatted tables

Pre-market - late - 9:25

Futures higher after a good job number. DJIA INDEX 10,437.00 32.00 S&P 500 1,106.90 3.80 NASDAQ 100 1,793.50 Today's economic calendar: MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 12:00 PM ET 7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before open: CONN Conns Inc. Services Electronics Stores DE Deere & Co. Industrial Goods Farm & Construction Machinery JRJC China Finance Online Co. Ltd. Technology Internet Information Providers TIF Tiffany & Co. Services Jewelry Stores After close: APWR A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. Utilities Electric Utilities

GDP - 8:30

Full report here Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in private inventory investment, in exports, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending.

Pre-market - Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Futures up a tad before GDP report. DJIA INDEX 10,437.00 15.00 S&P 500 1,106.70 2.90 NASDAQ 100 1,792.75 1.50 Today's economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET GDP 8:30 AM ET Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HP I9:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports: Before open: AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. Services Apparel Stores AHCI Allied Healthcare International Inc. Healthcare Home Health Care AMWD American Woodmark Corp. Industrial Goods Lumber, Wood Production AVNR Avanir Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Other BGP Borders Group, Inc. Services Specialty Retail, Other BKS Barnes & Noble, Inc. Services Specialty Retail, Other BWS Brown Shoe Co. Inc. Consumer Goods Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Services Restaurants DAKT Daktronics Inc. Industrial Goods Industrial Electrical Equipment DHT DHT Maritime, Inc. Services Shipping DLIA dELiA*s, Inc. Services Catalog & Mail Order Houses DLTR Dollar Tree Inc. Services Discount, Variety Stores DSW DSW Inc. Services Apparel Stores EV Eaton Vance Corp. Financial Asset Management FRED Fred's Inc. Services Discount, Variety Stores GCO Genesco Inc. Services Apparel Stores GIGM GigaMedia Ltd. Technology Internet Software & Services HI Hillenbrand, Inc. Services Personal Services HNZ HJ Heinz Co. Consumer Goods Food - Major Diversified HRL Hormel Foods Corp. Consumer Goods Meat Products MDT Medtronic, Inc. Healthcare Medical Appliances & Equipment NTZ Natuzzi SpA Consumer Goods Home Furnishings & Fixtures SIG Signet Jewelers Limited Services Jewelry Stores VIP Vimpel-Communications Technology Wireless Communications WH WSP Holdings Ltd. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Equipment & Services WMG Warner Music Group Corp. Services Movie Production, Theaters ZLC Zale Corporation Services Jewelry Stores After close: ASYS Amtech Systems Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials BCSI Blue Coat Systems Inc. Technology Business Software & Services CWTR Coldwater Creek Inc. Services Specialty Retail, Other JCG J. Crew Group, Inc. Services Apparel Stores JRJC China Finance Online Co. Ltd. Technology Internet Information Providers NZ Netezza Corporation Technology Diversified Computer Systems SNS Steak n Shake Co. Services Restaurants TIVO TiVo Inc. Services CATV Systems

Market wrap - 4:10

Large gap up, only to slowly go a bit lower as the dollar rose throughout the day. Dow 10,451 133 1.29% Nasdaq 2,176 30 1.40% S&P 500 1,106 15 1.36% Gold 1,165 +18 +1.57% Oil 77.69 0.09 0.12%

Existing home sales - 10:00

Full report here Washington, November 23, 2009 Driven by the first-time buyer tax credit, existing-home sales showed another big gain in October with a strong uptrend established over the past seven months, while inventories continue to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. “Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November,” he said. “With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer.” Now that the tax credit has been extended and expanded, potential buyers have until April 30 to have a contract in place. “There is still a large pent-up demand that can be tapped before the tax credit expires. Our recent consumer survey further shows that 13 percent of successful first-time buyers had a previous contract that was cancelled or fell through – there likely are many more buyers who were attempting to purchase but simply ran out of time,” Yun said. Historically low interest rates also are boosting the market. “Mortgage interest rates last month were the third lowest on record dating back to 1971,” Yun noted. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.95 percent in October from 5.06 percent in September; the rate was 6.20 percent in October 2008. Last week, Freddie Mac reporter the 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent. NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said strong demand by first-time buyers is creating some unusual conditions. “In parts of the country, especially in Southwestern states but also in Florida and suburban Washington, D.C., we’ve been getting many reports of multiple bids in the lower price ranges with foreclosed properties getting absorbed quickly,” she said. “In fact, low-end inventory has become very tight in many areas and in some cases buyers are becoming more aggressive. In this kind of environment it’s important to work with a Realtor® who can walk you through the process and help you negotiate a satisfactory deal,” Golder said. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 3.7 percent to 3.57 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.0-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from an 8.0-month supply in September. Unsold inventory totals are 14.9 percent below a year ago. “The supply of homes on the market is now at the lowest level in over two-and-a half years – we’re getting closer to a general balance between buyers and sellers,” Yun said. The last time the relative housing inventory was this low was in February 2007 when it also was at a 7.0-month supply. The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $173,100 in October, down 7.1 percent from October 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 30 percent of sales in October, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they usually sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area. “In the second half of 2010, if home values show consistent stabilization or even a modest increase, then home sales could remain at normal healthy levels because consumers would no longer be worried about a price overcorrection,” Yun said. He added that low home prices also are contributing to extremely favorable affordability conditions. “With the abnormal drop in home prices over the past few years, the price-to-income ratio has fallen below the historic trend line,” Yun said. “This is adding to the buying power of the typical family, with affordability conditions this year at the highest on record dating back to 1970, but prices are beginning to flatten and are poised to rise next year.” Single-family home sales rose 9.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in October from a pace of 4.86 million in September, and are 21.4 percent above the 4.39 million-unit pace in October 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $173,100 in October, down 6.8 percent from a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales surged 13.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 units in October from 680,000 in September, and are 40.8 percent above the 547,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price4 was $172,900 in October, which is 10.4 percent below October 2008. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.6 percent to an annual level of 1.06 million in October, and are 27.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $235,400, down 2.6 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest surged 14.4 percent in October to a pace of 1.43 million and are 28.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $146,600, a gain of 1.1 percent from October 2008. In the South, existing-home sales rose 12.7 percent to an annual level of 2.30 million in October and are 25.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the South was $151,100, down 6.3 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West increased 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.31 million in October and are 12.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $220,200, which is 14.7 percent below October 2008. The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Ron Paul on auditing the Fed - CNBC interview - 9:46

Pre-market - Monday, November 23, 2009

Futures up big on a declining dollar. DJIA INDEX 10,395.00 92.00 S&P 500 1,100.70 10.60 NASDAQ 100 1,779.25 15.75 Today's economic calendar: Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 2-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Today's earnings reports. Before open: BJS BJ Services Company Basic Materials Oil & Gas Equipment & Services CDCS CDC Software Corporation Technology Application Software CPB Campbell Soup Co. Consumer Goods Processed & Packaged Goods JOBS 51job Inc. Services Staffing & Outsourcing Services LDK LDK Solar Co.Ltd. Technology Diversified Electronics NED Noah Education Holdings, Ltd. Services Publishing - Books TECD Tech Data Corp. Services Computers Wholesale TSN Tyson Foods Inc. Consumer Goods Meat Products VAL Valspar Corp. Industrial Goods General Building Materials After close: ADI Analog Devices Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Broad Line ATW Atwood Oceanics Inc. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration BRCD Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. Technology Data Storage Devices CNTF China Techfaith Wireless Communication Technology Ltd. Technology Diversified Communication Services CTRN Citi Trends Services Apparel Stores DY Dycom Industries Inc. Industrial Goods Heavy Construction FMCN Focus Media Holding Ltd. Services Advertising Agencies GLAD Gladstone Capital Corporation Financial Diversified Investments HAYN Haynes International Inc. Basic Materials Steel & Iron HPQ Hewlett-Packard Company Technology Diversified Computer Systems NBG National Bank of Greece SA Financial Foreign Money Center Banks NCTY The9 Limited Services Gaming Activities NUAN Nuance Communications, Inc. Technology Application Software SBLK Star Bulk Carriers Corp. Services Shipping VIMC Vimicro International Corp. Technology Semiconductor - Specialized