Philly FED survey - 10:00am

Full report here Read the carefully - please - there is data in here below the headlines that are not so good. September 2009 Business Outlook Survey The region's manufacturing sector is showing signs of growth, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered positive readings for the second consecutive month. Indexes for employment, work hours, and the prices received for manufactured goods remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. The survey's broad indicators of future activity continued to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months. Current Indicators Suggest Modest Growth The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 4.2 in August to 14.1 this month. This is the highest reading since June 2007 and the second consecutive positive reading (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity (33 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (19 percent). Other broad indicators also suggested some growth this month. The current new orders index also remained positive for the second consecutive month, although it edged one point lower, to 3.3. The current shipments index increased eight points and has now increased 18 points over the last two months. Firms reported declines in inventories this month: The current inventory index declined 18 points, from 0.3 in August to -18.1. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. Labor market conditions remain weak, despite signs of improvement in overall activity. The current employment index decreased slightly, from -12.9 to -14.3. Overall declines, however, are still not as widespread as in the first six months of this year. Twenty-four percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 10 percent reported employment increases. Although the workweek index remained negative, the index edged two points higher, to -3.9. Prices of Manufactured Goods Decline Although more firms have reported higher prices for purchased inputs over the past few months, firms reported overall declines in prices of their manufactured goods this month. The prices paid index increased five points and follows a rise of 14 points last month; the reading of 14.9 for the prices paid index is the highest level since last September. The same manufacturers, however, reported declines in prices for their own final goods. While 17 percent reported price decreases, 6 percent reported increases; nearly 76 percent of the firms reported steady prices this month. The prices received index decreased nine points, to -10.6. Manufacturers Are Still Optimistic Indicators of future activity remained near levels not seen since 2004 (see Chart). The future general activity index remained positive for the ninth consecutive month but decreased from 56.8 in August to 47.8. Indexes for future new orders and shipments edged higher this month. The future shipments index increased eight points, and the future new orders index increased four points. For the fifth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (34 percent versus 14 percent). Firms' forecast for capital spending suggests that capital spending will be flat over the next six months: The future capital spending index, at 0.8, has remained very near zero for five months. In this month's special questions, manufacturers were asked about their total production growth for the third quarter (ending in September) and expectations for the fourth quarter (see Special Questions). Twice as many firms expect overall growth in production in the third quarter (48 percent) than expect a decline (24 percent). The average growth was about 1.3 percent for the responding firms. For the upcoming fourth quarter, more firms expect an acceleration in production growth (40 percent) than expect a deceleration (28 percent). However, few firms (only 1 percent) expect significant acceleration in growth in the fourth quarter; most firms characterized the expected acceleration in growth to be some (21percent) or slight (17 percent). Summary According to respondents to the September Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions are improving. For the second consecutive month, the survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were positive, suggesting business growth. Employment continued to decline among the reporting firms, however. Firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, and they expect modest growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year. More at link with formatted tables

Jobless claims - 8:30am

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Sept. 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 545,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 557,000. The 4-week moving average was 563,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 571,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending Sept. 5, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.6 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 5 was 6,230,000, an increase of 129,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,101,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,180,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,185,750. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.636 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,869 in the week ending Sept. 12, a decrease of 58,429 from the previous week. There were 382,249 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.0 percent during the week ending Sept. 5, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,270,688, a decrease of 165,485 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,040,859. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Aug. 29. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,539 in the week ending Sept. 5, an increase of 83 from the prior week. There were 2,195 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 42 from the preceding week. There were 20,414 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Aug. 29, an increase of 699 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 30,213, a decrease of 563 from the prior week. States reported 3,141,485 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 29, an increase of 21,781 from the prior week. There were 1,525,890 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Aug. 29 were in Puerto Rico (6.8 percent), Oregon (5.7), Pennsylvania (5.7), Nevada (5.5), Michigan (5.2), Connecticut (5.1), New Jersey (5.1), California (5.0), Wisconsin (5.0), North Carolina (4.8), and Rhode Island (4.8). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Sept. 5 were in Washington (+2,620), Pennsylvania (+2,573), Massachusetts(+1,565), North Carolina (+1,332), and Illinois (+1,218), while the largest decreases were in California (-2,751), New York (-2,479), Wisconsin (-1,149), Texas (-809), and New Jersey (-700). More at link with formatted tables

Housing starts report - 8:30am

Full report here NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN AUGUST 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for July 2009: BUILDING PERMITS Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 579,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.2%) above the revised July rate of 564,000, but is 32.4 percent (±1.3%) below the August 2008 estimate of 857,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 462,000; this is 0.2 percent (±1.1%)* below the revised July figure of 463,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 98,000 in August. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. This is 1.5 percent (±7.9%)* above the revised July estimate of 589,000, but is 29.6 percent (±6.0%) below the August 2008 rate of 849,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 479,000; this is 3.0 percent (±5.7%)* below the revised July figure of 494,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 115,000. HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000. This is 5.5 percent (±14.0%)* below the revised July estimate of 804,000 and is 25.3 percent (±9.6%) below the August 2008 rate of 1,018,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 489,000; this is 1.6 percent (±12.7%)* below the revised July figure of 497,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 256,000.