Mortgage delinquencies hit record-high in 3Q - 10:45

From Yahoo & AP Mortgage delinquencies hit record-high in 3Q Delinquencies and foreclosures set 9th straight record in 3rd quarter as layoffs keep rising * By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer * On 10:05 am EST, Thursday November 19, 2009 WASHINGTON (AP) -- More than 14 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September, a record-high for the ninth straight quarter and a problem that could threaten the economic recovery. The Mortgage Bankers Association's report Thursday adds to fears that the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages. After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. While optimists hope the worst is over, pessimists say there are simply too many foreclosed properties that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines. About 4 million homeowners were either in foreclosure or at least three months behind on their mortgage payments as of September, according to the mortgage bankers group. Even if a quarter of those borrowers are able to stay in their homes, "there's a lot of potential inventory coming into the market next year," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association. Those foreclosures will push home prices downward, especially in the hardest-hit California and Florida cities, places that are also coping with soaring unemployment, he said. The record-high foreclosure numbers are being driven by borrowers with traditional fixed-rate mortgages, rather than the shady subprime loans with adjustable rates that kicked off the mortgage crisis. Fixed-rate loans made to so-called prime borrowers with good credit histories caused nearly 33 percent of new foreclosures in the July-September quarter, compared with 21 percent a year ago. Subprime loans with adjustable rates have fallen to 16 percent of new foreclosures from 35 percent a year earlier. Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration also show increasing signs of trouble. More than 18 percent of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure. Among states, the worst of the trouble is still concentrated in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, which accounted for 44 percent of new foreclosures in the country. Nearly 13 percent of all loans in Florida were in foreclosure, the highest in the U.S., followed by Nevada at more than 9 percent.

Philly Fed - 10:00

Full report here November 2009 Business Outlook Survey Activity in the region's manufacturing sector is picking up, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all improved this month. The overall level of employment was mostly steady this month, and the average work hours index was positive for the first time in more than two years. The region's manufacturing executives expect increasing activity over the next six months, although expectations have moderated somewhat in the last several months. Low rates of current capacity utilization are suppressing capital spending plans. Indicators Suggest Activity Is Picking Up The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of 11.5 in October to 16.7 this month. The index has now remained positive for four consecutive months (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity this month (29 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (12 percent). Other broad indicators suggest similar improvement this month. The current new orders index also remained positive for the fourth consecutive month and increased nine points. The current shipments index increased 12 points. The current inventory index, although still negative, increased 15 points, from -31.8 in October to -17.3 this month. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative. Labor market conditions have been stabilizing in recent months. The current employment index increased six points, from -6.8 to near zero. The percentage of firms reporting employment increases and decreases were essentially the same this month (14 percent). The workweek index edged seven points higher in November to its first positive reading in 23 months. Prices of Manufactured Goods Are Near Steady Recently reported declines in prices for manufactured goods were not as widespread this month. The prices received index increased three points, to -1.5, suggesting nearly steady prices for manufactured goods this month. Still, firms continue to report higher prices for purchased inputs. The prices paid index, which had been increasing for three consecutive months, fell back six points this month, to 14.9. Manufacturers Are Generally Optimistic The future general activity index remained positive for the 11th consecutive month but decreased from 39.8 in September to 36.8, its lowest reading since April (see Chart). Despite lower readings in recent months, indicators of future activity remain near levels not seen since 2004. Indexes for future new orders and shipments declined this month, falling five points and nine points, respectively. For the seventh consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (27 percent versus 19 percent). In this month's special questions, firms were asked about their current capacity utilization and capital spending plans (see Special Questions). Over 58 percent of the firms indicated that their current capacity utilization rate was less than 70 percent; only 8 percent of firms reported utilization rates lower than 70 percent before the beginning of the recession. The percentage of firms that indicated capital spending on plant and equipment would be lower next year (41 percent) substantially exceeded the percentage that indicated capital spending would be higher (16 percent). Firms indicated, on average, that capacity utilization would need to increase to nearly 84 percent before they would be inclined to increase spending to increase capacity at their plant. Summary According to respondents to the November Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions are improving. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were higher this month. Employment was nearly flat this month, and more firms reported an increase in work hours. Firms still expect continued improvement over the next six months, although future indicators suggest that optimism has waned somewhat in recent months. Capital spending plans are being held back by low plant utilization rates. More at link with formatted tables

Jobless claims - 8:30 am

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 505,000. The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 520,500. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.3 percent for the week ending Nov. 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.3 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 7 was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,650,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,711,500, a decrease of 83,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,795,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.992 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 479,295 in the week ending Nov. 14, a decrease of 53,132 from the previous week. There were 513,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending Nov. 7, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,881,874, a decrease of 79,243 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6 percent and the volume was 3,521,971. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Oct. 31. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,331 in the week ending Nov. 7, a decrease of 62 from the prior week. There were 2,480 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 199 from the preceding week. There were 24,799 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Oct. 31, an increase of 2,273 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 34,919, an increase of 699 from the prior week. States reported 3,622,091 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Oct. 31, an increase of 101,838 from the prior week. There were 772,645 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Oct. 31 were in Puerto Rico (6.1 percent), Oregon (5.5), Nevada (5.2), Alaska (5.0), California (5.0), Arkansas (4.9), Wisconsin (4.9), Michigan (4.8), Pennsylvania (4.8), and Washington (4.7). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 7 were in Michigan (+6,001), New Jersey (+4,153), Pennsylvania (+3,552), New York (+3,508), and Ohio (+3,292), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,915), Arkansas (-734), Oregon (-274), South Carolina (-116), and West Virginia (-19). More at link with formatted tables