Pending home sales - June - 10:17AM

Full report here Uptrend Continues in Pending Home Sales Washington, August 04, 2009 Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a combination of positive market factors is fueling the gains. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes,” he said. “Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by November 30. The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 0.4 percent to 81.2 in June and is 5.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 0.8 percent to 89.9 and is 11.6 percent above June 2008. The index in the South jumped 7.1 percent to 100.7 in June and is 8.9 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.9 percent to 100.4 but is 0.2 percent below June 2008. NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, is hopeful that a recently elevated level of contract cancellations will ease. “Last month, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae clarified that appraisals should be done by professionals with clear local expertise,” he said. “This should mitigate the situation of many valuations done by out-of-area appraisers coming in below the price negotiated between buyers and sellers. Hopefully, in the months ahead, we’ll see an even closer relationship between contract activity and closed transactions.” McMillan said NAR is continuing to press the appraisal issue. “We have asked Congress and the Federal Housing Finance Agency to immediately implement an 18-month moratorium on the new appraisal rules to further address unintended consequences of the new guidelines,” he said. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index2 remains very favorable. The affordability index stood at 159.2 in July, down from record peaks in recent months but it remains 36.6 percentage points above a year ago. Under these conditions the typical family would devote 15.7 percent of gross income to mortgage principal and interest, well below the standard allowance of 25 percent. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income. “A monthly rise in home prices and somewhat higher mortgage interest rates led to a modest decline in affordability in June, but it was still the sixth highest index on record dating back to 1970,” Yun said. “Because housing is so affordable in today’s market, job security and the first-time buyer tax credit are bigger factors in influencing home sales.” A median-income family, earning $60,700, could afford a home costing $289,100 in June with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of what a median-income family can afford. The affordable price was much higher than the median existing single-family home price in June, which was $181,600. Yun expects existing-home sales to gradually rise over the balance of the year, with conditions varying around the country. “It appears home sales are on a sounder footing and inventory is gradually being absorbed.” The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Durable goods orders - 8:35AM

Full report here Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2009 New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $4.1 billion or 2.5 percent to $158.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed two consecutive monthly increases including a 1.3 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $5.3 billion or 12.8 percent to $36.5 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $168.3 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent May decrease. Computers and electronic products, down five of the last six months, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $27.4 billion. Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down nine consecutive months, decreased $6.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $740.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, down nine consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $5.9 billion or 1.3 percent to $433.3 billion. Inventories Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, down six consecutive months, decreased $3.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $318.8 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent May decrease. Computers and electronic products, down six consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 1.7 percent to $44.8 billion. Capital Goods Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $1.8 billion or 3.4 percent to $51.3 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $55.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $4.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $424.8 billion. Inventories decreased $0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $140.6 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $3.4 billion or 28.3 percent to $8.6 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 4.3 percent to $10.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $142.2 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $20.2 billion. Revised May Data Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $346.9 billion (revised from $347.9 billion); shipments, $352.9 billion (revised from $353.3 billion); unfilled orders, $746.7 billion (revised from $747.3 billion); and total inventories, $512.8 billion (revised from $513.3 billion).

Jobless claims - July 23, 2009 - 8:38AM

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 554,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 524,000. The 4-week moving average was 566,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average of 585,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 11, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 11 was 6,225,000, a decrease of 88,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,313,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,541,500, a decrease of 132,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,674,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.474 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 580,944 in the week ending July 18, a decrease of 90,298 from the previous week. There were 411,408 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent during the week ending July 11, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,231,108, an increase of 57,168 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4 percent and the volume was 3,164,970. Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 4. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,034 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 392 from the prior week. There were 2,234 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 364 from the preceding week. There were 18,461 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending July 4, an increase of 990 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 29,098, an increase of 331 from the prior week. States reported 2,632,361 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending July 4, an increase of 107,019 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 4 were in Puerto Rico (6.9 percent), Michigan (6.8), Oregon (6.8), Pennsylvania (6.4), Nevada (6.2), Wisconsin (6.1), South Carolina (5.7), New Jersey (5.6), North Carolina (5.5), and Connecticut (5.4). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 11 were in New York (+12,504), North Carolina (+10,382), Florida (+10,043), Missouri (+8,293), and Tennessee (+6,943), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-6,648), Massachusetts (-2,910), New Jersey (-2,888), Indiana (-2,497), and California (-1,755). Full report here

Jobless claims - July 16, 2009 8:35AM

Full report here: UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 569,000. The 4-week moving average was 584,500, a decrease of 22,500 from the previous week's revised average of 607,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 5.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 4 was 6,273,000, a decrease of 642,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,915,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,666,750, a decrease of 110,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,777,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.449 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week. There were 483,981 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending July 4, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,135,066, an increase of 63,714 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,118,724. Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending June 27. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,642 in the week ending July 4, an increase of 14 from the prior week. There were 1,870 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 192 from the preceding week. There were 17,471 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending June 27, an increase of 17 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 28,772, an increase of 242 from the prior week. States reported 2,525,342 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending June 27, an increase of 6,241 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 27 were in Michigan (7.2 percent), Puerto Rico (6.9), Oregon (6.5), Pennsylvania (6.3), Nevada (6.1), Wisconsin (5.8), California (5.4), South Carolina (5.4), Connecticut (5.2), Illinois (5.2), New Jersey (5.2), and North Carolina (5.2). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 4 were in Michigan (+12,144), New York (+8,913), Wisconsin (+5,838), Indiana (+5,430), and Ohio (+4,240), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-5,030), California (-4,293), North Carolina (-3,983), Kansas (-3,544), and Oregon (-1,454).

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JUNE 2009 - 8:40AM

Full report here CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in June before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 12 months the index has fallen 1.4 percent, as a 25.5 percent decline in the energy index has more than offset increases of 2.1 percent in the food index and 1.7 percent in the index for all items less food and energy. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.7 percent in June after rising 0.1 percent in May. The acceleration was largely caused by the gasoline index, which rose 17.3 percent in June and accounted for over 80 percent of the increase in the all items index. The index for energy rose 7.4 percent in June, with a decline in the electricity index partly offsetting the sharp increase in gasoline. The food index, which had fallen each of the last four months, was unchanged in June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June following a 0.1 percent increase in May. Most components of all items less food and energy posted increases; the indexes for shelter and medical care rose slightly, while the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, recreation, and apparel all increased at least 0.5 percent. The index for airline fares did decline in June, falling 0.6 percent.

ISM Manufacturing report - 10:10AM

Full report here June 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® PMI at 44.8% DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of June 2009. Production Growing New Orders, Employment and Inventories Contracting Prices Unchanged Supplier Deliveries Slower (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in June for the 17th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the second consecutive month following seven months of decline, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Manufacturing continues to contract at a slower rate, but the trends in the indexes are encouraging as seven of 18 industries reported growth in June. Most encouraging is the gain in the Production Index, which is up 12.1 percentage points in the last two months to 52.5 percent. Aggressive inventory reduction continues and indications are that the de-stocking cycle is at or near the end in most industries, as the Customers' Inventories Index remained below 50 percent for the third consecutive month. The Prices Index was unchanged from May, indicating that the supply/demand balance is improving. Overall, a slow recovery for manufacturing is forming based on the current trends in the ISM data." PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY Seven of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in June. These industries — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals. The industries reporting contraction in June — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ... * "Customer inventory burn is complete and real demand has reappeared." (Machinery) * "... a lot of people are requoting old business and using favorable pricing to negotiate with their current suppliers." (Computer & Electronic Products) * "Banks are reluctant to lend to businesses, and until this changes the economy will continue to be weak." (Fabricated Metal Products) * "Slow June, but firm large orders in July, August and September." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) * "Market appears to have bottomed out as aftermarket has picked up slightly over the past month." (Transportation Equipment)

ADP job report - 8:15AM

Not so good it seems: Full link here ROSELAND, N.J. – July 1, 2009 – According to today’s ADP National Employment Report®, private sector employment decreased by 473,000 in June. The ADP National Employment Report, created by ADP® Employer Services, a division of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month. Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights – June Report: • Total employment: -473,000 • Small businesses* -177,000 • Medium businesses** -205,000 • Large businesses*** -91,000 • Goods-producing sector: -250,000 • Service-providing sector: -223,000 Addendum: • Manufacturing industry: -146,000 * Small businesses represent payrolls with 1-49 employees ** Medium businesses represent payrolls with 50-499 employees *** Large businesses represent payrolls with more than 499 employees