ISM Non-manufacturing - 10:00

Full report here - late, link didn't work, and this did move the market. November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 48.7% DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2009. Business Activity Index at 49.6% New Orders Index at 55.1% Employment Index at 41.6% (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November after two consecutive months of expansion, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 48.7 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 50.6 percent registered in October, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector after two consecutive months of expansion. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 5.6 percentage points to 49.6 percent, reflecting contraction after three consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index decreased 0.5 percentage point to 55.1 percent, and the Employment Index increased 0.5 percentage point to 41.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 4.8 percentage points to 57.8 percent in November, indicating an increase in prices paid from October. According to the NMI, six non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Respondents' comments remain cautious about business conditions and reflect concern over the length of time for economic recovery." INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI) The six industries reporting growth in November based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Information. The 11 industries reporting contraction in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ... * "Capital markets remain very tight; lenders are not releasing funds for development projects, limiting expansion." (Accommodation & Food Services) * "Fourth quarter still looking grim, but potential upturn for Q1 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services) * "No one trusts that the recovery is real. Seems everything and everyone is in a holding pattern." (Public Administration) * "Business is still flat." (Wholesale Trade) * "U.S. business remains better than 2007 levels, although it's been through personnel and cost reductions that we are now profitable. Business continues to be about 8 percent below 2008 levels." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing) * Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories. ** Number of months moving in current direction. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Beef; Cheese (4); Diesel Fuel; #1 Diesel Fuel; #2 Diesel Fuel; Fuel (2); Gasoline; Laboratory Equipment; Masks [for TB/H1N1 use] (2); and Pharmacy Supplies. Commodities Down in Price Alloys (2); and Carbon Pipe. Commodities in Short Supply Masks [for TB/H1N1 use] (2) is the only commodity reported in short supply. Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

Productivity and Costs - 8:30

Full report here PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS Third Quarter 2009, Revised Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at an 8.1 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today (tables A and 2). This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, and reflects a 2.9 percent increase in output and a 4.8 percent decline in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) Labor productivity is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of the combined hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers. The productivity measures released today were based on more recent and more complete data than were available for the preliminary report issued last month (see Revised measures). Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses fell 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, as productivity grew at a faster rate (8.1 percent) than hourly compensation (5.4 percent). Unit labor costs declined 1.4 percent over the last four quarters (tables A and 2). BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity; increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in output per hour tend to reduce them. Manufacturing sector productivity grew 13.4 percent in the third quarter of 2009, as output rose 8.4 percent and hours worked fell 4.4 percent (tables A and 3). The third quarter gain in manufacturing productivity was the largest in the series, which begins in the second quarter of 1987. Over the last four quarters, manufacturing productivity grew 3.0 percent. Manufacturing unit labor costs fell 6.1 percent in the third quarter of 2009, but rose 3.0 percent over the last four quarters. The data sources and methods used in the preparation of the manufacturing output series differ from those used in preparing the business and nonfarm business output series, and these measures are not directly comparable. See Technical Notes for more information on data sources. Revised measures Table B presents previous and revised productivity and related measures for the major sectors: business, nonfarm business and manufacturing, for the second and third quarters of 2009. In the third quarter of 2009, nonfarm business productivity was revised down from 9.5 percent to 8.1 percent, reflecting a downward revision to output and an upward revision to hours. Unit labor costs declined 2.5 percent rather than falling 5.2 percent as previously reported; this upward revision was due both to the downward revision to productivity and the 1.6 percentage-point upward revision to hourly compensation. In the manufacturing sector, upward revisions to both output and hours affected productivity, which was revised slightly down by 0.2 percentage point. In the second quarter of 2009, nonfarm business productivity was not revised. However, unit labor costs were revised to show zero growth during the second quarter rather than decreasing 6.1 percent as previously reported. This upward revision to unit labor costs was due solely to the large upward revision to hourly compensation. In the manufacturing sector, second quarter productivity was not revised; unit labor costs were revised upward by 1.3 percentage points. More at link with formatted tables

Jobless claims - 8:30

Full report here UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Nov. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 462,000. The 4-week moving average was 481,250, a decrease of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average of 495,500. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the week ending Nov. 21, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.1 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 21 was 5,465,000, an increase of 28,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,437,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,541,500, a decrease of 75,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,617,250. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.832 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 460,989 in the week ending Nov. 28, a decrease of 78,263 from the previous week. There were 535,730 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent during the week ending Nov. 21, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,787,291, a decrease of 296,052 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.7 percent and the volume was 3,652,990. Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Nov. 14. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,269 in the week ending Nov. 21, a decrease of 101 from the prior week. There were 2,330 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 368 from the preceding week. There were 24,523 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Nov. 14, an increase of 1,389 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 36,359, an increase of 1,752 from the prior week. States reported 3,859,553 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Nov. 14, an increase of 265,300 from the prior week. There were 777,393 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include first, second, and third tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Nov. 14 were in Puerto Rico (6.1 percent), Oregon (5.9), Alaska (5.5), California (5.2), Nevada (5.2), Michigan (5.1), Pennsylvania (5.0), Wisconsin (5.0), North Carolina (4.8), and Washington (4.7). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 21 were in California (+14,796), Illinois (+6,168), North Carolina (+5,557), Pennsylvania (+5,285), and Texas (+3,500), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-1,242), Indiana (-987), Hawaii (-195), Oregon (-167), and the Virgin Islands (-10).