30 year bond auction - 1:05pm

Wow! Who would have thunk it! Full report here

Business inventories - 10:00am

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2009, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713 CB09-118 John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703 Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES June 2009 Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent (±0.2%) from May 2009 and down 18.0 percent (±0.5%) from June 2008. Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,350.0 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from May 2009 and down 9.8 percent (±0.4%) from June 2008. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.38. The June 2008 ratio was 1.26. Full report here The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for July is scheduled to be released September 15, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT. For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at . This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986). * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. (p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. 1 Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. 2 Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. 3 Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. 4 The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products. Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Retail Sales - 8:30am - a little late - sorry. August 13,2009

Full report here - Please use link - more info I cannot format FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES JULY 2009 The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.3 percent (±0.7%) below July 2008. Total sales for the May through July 2009 period were down 9.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2009 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%). Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from June 2009 and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 32.5 percent (±1.5%) from July 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 14.7 percent (±2.0%) from last year. The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication. Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales (Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes) More at link

Jobless claims - 8:30am - Opps!

Full report here Program Contact: TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EDT), THURSDAY August 13, 2009 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Aug. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 558,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 554,000. The 4-week moving average was 565,000, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average of 556,500. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending Aug. 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 4.8 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 1 was 6,202,000, a decrease of 141,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,343,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,259,250, a decrease of 27,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,287,000. The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.548 million. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 479,824 in the week ending Aug. 8, an increase of 13,129 from the previous week. There were 373,858 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.4 percent during the week ending Aug. 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,860,918, a decrease of 158,904 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4 percent and the volume was 3,199,339. Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending July 25. Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,368 in the week ending Aug. 1, a decrease of 293 from the prior week. There were 2,020 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 39 from the preceding week. There were 19,568 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending July 25, a decrease of 215 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 30,340, an increase of 233 from the prior week. States reported 2,785,372 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending July 25, an increase of 30,981 from the prior week. There were 747,707 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 25 were in Michigan (6.8 percent), Puerto Rico (6.7), Oregon (6.3), Pennsylvania (6.2), Nevada (6.0), Wisconsin (5.6), Connecticut (5.5), California (5.4), New Jersey (5.4), and Illinois (5.3). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 1 were in Alabama (+721), Washington (+692), Nebraska (+306), Kentucky (+247), and Delaware (+157), while the largest decreases were in California (-7,258), Michigan (-7,031), Tennessee (-4,391), Florida (-3,358), and Georgia (-2,538). More at link

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - 8:30am

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - full report here U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES - JULY 2009 - The U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.7 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Decreases for both petroleum prices and nonpetroleum prices contributed to the July drop for overall import prices, which followed four consecutive monthly increases. Export prices also declined in July, falling 0.3 percent after advancing 1.0 percent the previous month. Import Goods A downturn in petroleum prices, which fell 2.8 percent in July, was the primary factor for the turnaround in overall import prices. Prices for import petroleum rose 66.6 percent over the previous five months, which led overall imports up 6.0 percent over that period. Despite the jump between February and June, petroleum prices fell 49.9 percent over the past year. Overall import prices posted the largest annual decline since the index was first published in 1982, falling 19.3 percent for the year ended in July. In addition, nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.2 percent in July, resuming a downward trend over the past year after advancing the past two months. Nonpetroleum prices fell 7.3 percent over the past 12 months, the largest annual decrease since the index was first published in 1985. The July decline in nonpetroleum prices was led by a 0.9 percent decrease in the price index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials which was driven by lower prices for chemicals and natural gas. Nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials prices declined 26.0 percent over the past 12 months. Consumer goods prices also decreased, falling 0.4 percent in July and 1.2 percent over the past year. Lower prices for apparel, television and video receivers, and jewelry all contributed to the July decline. In contrast, the price indexes for capital goods and automotive vehicles increased in July, rising 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Capital goods prices fell 1.5 percent for the year ended in July, whereas automotive vehicle prices were unchanged over the past year. Export Goods Export prices fell 0.3 percent in July after increasing for three consecutive months. The July decline was driven by a 4.9 percent decrease in agricultural prices, which also fell for the first time in four months. Sharp drops in corn and wheat prices were the largest contributors to the decline. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 22.3 percent over the past 12 months, the largest annual decline since the index was first published in 1985. Nonagricultural prices advanced 0.2 percent in July, but decreased 6.5 percent for the July 2008-2009 period. Overall export prices fell 8.1 percent over the past year, the largest annual decrease since the index was first published in 1983. Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices increased for the fourth consecutive month, ticking up 0.1 percent in July. Higher prices for plastics were mostly offset by lower fuel prices. Despite the recent increases, the price index for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials decreased 21.0 percent over the past 12 months. Capital goods prices and consumer goods prices also rose in July, advancing 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Over the past 12 months, prices for capital goods rose 1.6 percent, while prices for consumer goods rose 0.2 percent. In contrast, prices for automotive vehicles decreased in July, falling 0.2 percent after decreasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The price index for automotive vehicles edged up 0.1 percent for the July 2008-2009 period. Imports by Locality of Origin The price indexes for imports from Mexico and from Canada each decreased in July, led by lower petroleum prices. Import prices from Mexico fell 1.1 percent in July and 16.8 percent over the past year. Similarly, prices for imports from Canada declined 1.0 percent for the month and 26.5 percent for the year ended in July. Import prices from China fell 0.2 percent in July after ticking up 0.1 percent in June. Overall import prices from China decreased 3.3 percent for the July 2008-2009 period, the largest 12-month drop since the index was first published in December 2003. In contrast, prices for imports from the European Union and from Japan advanced 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in July. The price index for imports from the European Union fell 7.2 percent for the year ended in July, led in part by lower petroleum prices, while import prices from Japan rose 1.6 percent. Import and Export Services Import air passenger fares decreased 3.1 percent in July after increasing 13.0 percent the previous month. The decline was led by a 6.0 percent decrease in European fares. Over the past year, import air passenger fares fell 20.1 percent, the largest 12-month drop since the index was first published in 1988. Export air passenger fares rose in July, advancing 0.7 percent because of higher European and Latin America/Caribbean fares. Despite the July increase, export air passenger fares fell 24.3 percent, the largest 12-month drop since the index was first published in 1986. The price index for import air freight advanced 0.3 percent in July after a 2.0 percent increase the previous month. The index fell 16.9 percent for the year ended in July. Export air freight prices rose 1.4 percent in July after decreasing for 10 consecutive months. Overall, export air freight prices declined 16.8 percent over the past year. More at link, including a chart I cannot format