1-28-2014 - durable goods

 

At Davos: Paul Singer To Warn Of Derivatives Catastrophe

At Davos: Paul Singer To Warn Of Derivatives Catastrophe

Crude oil

Twenty (Important) Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School – Part I

Oil security 2025 - from .gov

Who owns the debt?

Charting the Federal Reserve’s Assets – 1915 to 2012

Charting the Federal Reserve’s Assets – 1915 to 2012

Inflation indicators - KC Fed - 1986

Randy Wray, MMT, Janet Tavakoli, Did Banks dump structured financial products in your pension fund

Link to Randy Wray blog and BS site

Did Banks Dump Structured Financial Products in Your Pension Fund?

Labor force participation rate

Today's trends - cannabis is doing quite well

New Report Show How Outsourcing State and Local Government Services is About Looting

New Report Show How Outsourcing State and Local Government Services is About Looting

Jan 2, futures before Non-Farm Payroll

The Creature of Jekyll Island - online

The retirement gamble, Jim Grant, Video

The retirement gamble

Oil, links to read.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131028141516.htm U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-10/u-dot-s-dot-shale-oil-boom-may-not-last-as-fracking-wells-lack-staying-power THE FRACKING PONZI SCHEME http://www.forbes.com/sites/insead/2013/05/08/shale-oil-and-gas-the-contrarian-view/ Why America's Shale Oil Boom Could End Sooner Than You Think http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/06/13/why-americas-shale-oil-boom-could-end-sooner-than-you-think/ FRACKING WILL CREATE AN ECONOMIC CRISIS http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis

Budget, Paul Ryan, Cartoon

Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and Earnings: A primer and projections

Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and Earnings: A primer and projections

Secret Inside BofA Office of CEO Stymied Needy Homeowners, BAC

Secret Inside BofA Office of CEO Stymied Needy Homeowners

Inside the Saudi 9/11 coverup - NY Post

Inside the Saudi 9/11 coverup

The Federal Reserve: 100 Years Of Boom And Bust - documentary

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-11/federal-reserve-100-years-boom-and-bust

Monopoly, banker rules

May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor - Part 1: The Reaping, Hunger Games

May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor - Part 1: The Reaping

May the odds be in your favor - Part 2, Jim Quinn

New Documents Show How Power Moved to Wall Street, Via the New York Fed

New Documents Show How Power Moved to Wall Street, Via the New York Fed

Big Banks About to Start Booking Second Mortgage Losses They Can No Longer Extend and Pretend Away

November 2013 non-farm payroll graphs

FRED link

ZH link

ZH Link

Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States Flow of Funds, Balance Sheets, and Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf - 165 pg pdf

Harvard Study Finds: The Rent Is Too Damn High

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-09/harvard-study-finds-the-rent-is-too-damn-high#r=rss

Treasury Presentationa to Borrowing Advisory Committee, FY2013, 3rd quarter

Clear Channel, Bain, Clear Channel Burning Cash to Delay Reckoning: Corporate Finance

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-29/clear-channel-burning-cash-to-delay-reckoning-corporate-finance.html#disqus_thread

Google, Don’t Be Evil? Google Funding a Slew of Right-Wing Groups

Don’t Be Evil? Google Funding a Slew of Right-Wing Groups

Fracking info, Ohio’s Official Fracking Water Damage Denialism

Ohio’s Official Fracking Water Damage Denialism

BAC, FDIC, bailouts, derivatives

Bank Of America Dumps $75 Trillion In Derivatives On U.S. Taxpayers With Federal Approval

BofA Said to Split Regulators Over Moving Merrill Derivatives to Bank Unit

Bove: The Government is about to destroy American mortgages permanently, Treasury report to congress, TBTF banks

Bove: The Government is about to destroy American mortgages permanently

Treasury report to congress 2011

Too Big To Fail Banks Are Taking Over As Number Of U.S. Banks Falls To Record Low

Whistle-blower tries to shed light on private-equity transaction fees

Whistle-blower tries to shed light on private-equity transaction fees

New Study Finds Higher Methane Emissions from Fracking - from Naked Capitalism

New Study Finds Higher Methane Emissions from Fracking

Intelligence Gathering Plays Key Role at New York Fed’s Trading Desk

Intelligence Gathering Plays Key Role at New York Fed’s Trading Desk

The Money Changers Serenade: A New Plot Hatches - Paul Craig Roberts

The Money Changers Serenade: A New Plot Hatches

Paul Krugman fallacies, Wall Street's rental empire

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-25/guest-post-paul-krugmans-fallacies

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175777/tomdispatch%3A_laura_gottesdiener%2C_wall_street%27s_rental_empire

Today's S&P

An open letter to the FOMC - Hussman funds

Notorious Summer of 08 - Fed's Bullard

US banks warn Fed interest cut could force them to charge depositors

Historical CPI numbers and CAGR projected into future

Ok  so I'm not done.

This is all quite fascinating.  Fascinating watching tribal politics trump common sense, and even more fascinating how it trumps simple arithmetic.  When we get things such as "semantic tells" or "Manichean view" thrown in the mix we have really fell off the reservation.

Debt is good, and simply a "policy tool." Nothing to see here, move along.  LOL!

Well, it so happens, we available to us, data to support what that policy tool has done and can do.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a plethora of historical data available in what they call the CPI, or the Consumer Price Index, to show us what the costs of goods and services have cost us over a period of years, sortable, and categorized to provide the data.  Let's take a look shall we?

I went back to 1980 for the data and compared those numbers to today (2013), then projected those number into the future using the inflation target number given by the Federal Reserve, which is 2%.  The exceptions are a couple that only went back to 1995, and the one I used 1913 for obvious reasons.

I then projected to the future 25, 50, and 75 years.  I chose that number as 75 years is a nice average lifetime of a human.

Projecting from 1980 (or 1995) to 2013 you can figure the CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) using a simple formula in Excel (the BLS site allows you to search and download the table data).

Using the current 2013 price data, and the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target, we can project those values out the 25, 50, and 75 years to get an idea what things might cost in 2088.

From this data we can also see, the CAGR of these prices grew faster than the projected 2 percent the Fed is targeting (all but a couple of the example I used), which makes the 2 percent Fed number low, which many economists also believe.  And why shouldn't they, the numbers are what they are.

I chose random items we all have, use, or buy, and a couple others just for fun.

 

All data can be found at the BLS at; BLS CPI data or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data); FRED data

And for fun, let's take a look at those number if the Fed target inflation number is higher than their 2%.

At 3 percent:

At 4;

So debt and the resulting inflation is good.  Just a tool, nothing to see here.  Got it. Keep printing more money because more money will create more growth, or more prosperity, or more something.  That's some wild stuff right there.

Go sell your BS to someone else cause I'm not buying, I can't afford to, I can't keep up now.

As an aside, I didn't do this little experiment because of the debate in this thread.  I did this a month or so ago when some of the newer data came out.  I find this much more enlightening than listening to some MMT ((M)agic (M)oney (T)ree) screwball tell me how printing money will fix the world and the Fed insanity is a giant conspiracy theory.

No wonder this country is truly ******.

JP Morgan, JPM

J.P. Morgan Is Haunted by a 2006 Decision on Mortgages

debt to the penny from the treasury

D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth

D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth

Bakken, Crude Oil, PeakOilBarrel.com, EIA report, SAGD

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/guest-post-coming-bust-great-bakken-oil-field

http://peakoilbarrel.com/

http://www.eia.gov/

More EIA info

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam-assisted_gravity_drainage

Documentary site link

Documentary Site

World Energy Outlook 2013 - IEA - PDF file

World Energy Outlook 2013

Chris Martenson & Mike Maloney on the Secrets of Money

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-09/chris-martenson-warns-there-nothing-more-important-understanding

EUR/DOL after ECB rate cut

H.R. 992 - sold out by the House - banks win again

H.R. 992 - sold out by the House - banks win again

The Wall Street Code (Marije Meerman, VPRO) - Video

The Known Universe in HD

corporate welfare

US oil field production - from the EIA

US oil field production - from the EIA

Wall Street Code Released - Video

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-11-04/wall-street-code-released

HFT video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEAGdwHXfLQ

Price of Silver

Check Silver prices; https://comparesilverprices.com/

Link - Why Poverty - Cartoon on political parties - SSA - wage stats for 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6niWzomA_So&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLWB0UfoChWY2gN1daubiv6A5HNQqicAxM http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2012

NY Magazine - Peterson

http://nymag.com/arts/tv/features/57763/#ixzz0c44gQfcK