BAC, FDIC, bailouts, derivatives

Bank Of America Dumps $75 Trillion In Derivatives On U.S. Taxpayers With Federal Approval

BofA Said to Split Regulators Over Moving Merrill Derivatives to Bank Unit

Bove: The Government is about to destroy American mortgages permanently, Treasury report to congress, TBTF banks

Bove: The Government is about to destroy American mortgages permanently

Treasury report to congress 2011

Too Big To Fail Banks Are Taking Over As Number Of U.S. Banks Falls To Record Low

Whistle-blower tries to shed light on private-equity transaction fees

Whistle-blower tries to shed light on private-equity transaction fees

New Study Finds Higher Methane Emissions from Fracking - from Naked Capitalism

New Study Finds Higher Methane Emissions from Fracking

Intelligence Gathering Plays Key Role at New York Fed’s Trading Desk

Intelligence Gathering Plays Key Role at New York Fed’s Trading Desk

The Money Changers Serenade: A New Plot Hatches - Paul Craig Roberts

The Money Changers Serenade: A New Plot Hatches

Paul Krugman fallacies, Wall Street's rental empire

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-25/guest-post-paul-krugmans-fallacies

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175777/tomdispatch%3A_laura_gottesdiener%2C_wall_street%27s_rental_empire

Today's S&P

An open letter to the FOMC - Hussman funds

Notorious Summer of 08 - Fed's Bullard

US banks warn Fed interest cut could force them to charge depositors

Historical CPI numbers and CAGR projected into future

Ok  so I'm not done.

This is all quite fascinating.  Fascinating watching tribal politics trump common sense, and even more fascinating how it trumps simple arithmetic.  When we get things such as "semantic tells" or "Manichean view" thrown in the mix we have really fell off the reservation.

Debt is good, and simply a "policy tool." Nothing to see here, move along.  LOL!

Well, it so happens, we available to us, data to support what that policy tool has done and can do.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a plethora of historical data available in what they call the CPI, or the Consumer Price Index, to show us what the costs of goods and services have cost us over a period of years, sortable, and categorized to provide the data.  Let's take a look shall we?

I went back to 1980 for the data and compared those numbers to today (2013), then projected those number into the future using the inflation target number given by the Federal Reserve, which is 2%.  The exceptions are a couple that only went back to 1995, and the one I used 1913 for obvious reasons.

I then projected to the future 25, 50, and 75 years.  I chose that number as 75 years is a nice average lifetime of a human.

Projecting from 1980 (or 1995) to 2013 you can figure the CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) using a simple formula in Excel (the BLS site allows you to search and download the table data).

Using the current 2013 price data, and the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target, we can project those values out the 25, 50, and 75 years to get an idea what things might cost in 2088.

From this data we can also see, the CAGR of these prices grew faster than the projected 2 percent the Fed is targeting (all but a couple of the example I used), which makes the 2 percent Fed number low, which many economists also believe.  And why shouldn't they, the numbers are what they are.

I chose random items we all have, use, or buy, and a couple others just for fun.

 

All data can be found at the BLS at; BLS CPI data or FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data); FRED data

And for fun, let's take a look at those number if the Fed target inflation number is higher than their 2%.

At 3 percent:

At 4;

So debt and the resulting inflation is good.  Just a tool, nothing to see here.  Got it. Keep printing more money because more money will create more growth, or more prosperity, or more something.  That's some wild stuff right there.

Go sell your BS to someone else cause I'm not buying, I can't afford to, I can't keep up now.

As an aside, I didn't do this little experiment because of the debate in this thread.  I did this a month or so ago when some of the newer data came out.  I find this much more enlightening than listening to some MMT ((M)agic (M)oney (T)ree) screwball tell me how printing money will fix the world and the Fed insanity is a giant conspiracy theory.

No wonder this country is truly ******.

JP Morgan, JPM

J.P. Morgan Is Haunted by a 2006 Decision on Mortgages

debt to the penny from the treasury

D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth

D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth

Bakken, Crude Oil, PeakOilBarrel.com, EIA report, SAGD

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-17/guest-post-coming-bust-great-bakken-oil-field

http://peakoilbarrel.com/

http://www.eia.gov/

More EIA info

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam-assisted_gravity_drainage

Documentary site link

Documentary Site

World Energy Outlook 2013 - IEA - PDF file

World Energy Outlook 2013

Chris Martenson & Mike Maloney on the Secrets of Money

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-09/chris-martenson-warns-there-nothing-more-important-understanding

EUR/DOL after ECB rate cut

H.R. 992 - sold out by the House - banks win again

H.R. 992 - sold out by the House - banks win again

The Wall Street Code (Marije Meerman, VPRO) - Video

The Known Universe in HD

corporate welfare

US oil field production - from the EIA

US oil field production - from the EIA

Wall Street Code Released - Video

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-11-04/wall-street-code-released

HFT video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEAGdwHXfLQ

Price of Silver

Check Silver prices; https://comparesilverprices.com/

Link - Why Poverty - Cartoon on political parties - SSA - wage stats for 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6niWzomA_So&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLWB0UfoChWY2gN1daubiv6A5HNQqicAxM http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2012

NY Magazine - Peterson

http://nymag.com/arts/tv/features/57763/#ixzz0c44gQfcK

GM Bailout money, SIGTARP Report (518 pages)

http://www.autoblog.com/2013/10/29/us-treasury-reports-9-7b-loss-gm-shares/

http://www.sigtarp.gov/Quarterly%20Reports/October_29_2013_Report_to_Congress.pdf

Bruce Schneier - cyber security

https://www.schneier.com/

Mike Rogers, bathroom cam

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20131030/11223225071/rep-mike-rogers-angrily-defends-bathroom-spycam.shtml

Consulting

Senator Rand Paul Is Right To Hold Up Janet Yellen's Federal Reserve Nomination, And Democrats Should Support Him

Senator Rand Paul Is Right To Hold Up Janet Yellen's Federal Reserve Nomination, And Democrats Should Support Him

Us. vs. Them - Naked Capitalism

Us vs. Them - Naked Capitalism

Global Wealth Report 2013 - Credit Suisse

Global Wealth Report 2013 - Credit Suisse

The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind - Hidden Secrets of Money Episode 4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0

The rule - from a guy at NC

I liked this post, so I copied the "rule"

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#ER5QSdslCUcjEA3D.99

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#comment-1501314 

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#ER5QSdslCUcjEA3D.99

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#ER5QSdslCUcjEA3D.99

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#OUrJiYpv4LpKIM11.99

Here’s the rule: If there is a pot of money that can be raided, it will be raided. No matter what the “rules” are. No matter what rational people expect. No matter who gets hurt.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/a-debt-deal-is-nigh-a-debt-deal-is-nigh-or-is-it.html#OUrJiYpv4LpKIM11.99

The Global Wealth Distribution, China - dollar reserve currency, David Stockman

http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-global-wealth-distribution.html

Global Wealth 2013 - Credit Suisse

Commentary: U.S. fiscal failure warrants a de-Americanized world - China paper on replacing the US dollar as reserve currency.

A piece about the piece above and reserve currency.

The birth of the 'de-Americanized' world

CPI from 1913 to Today from the BLS - reference
CPI - 1913 to now - from the BLS

David Stockman: Soak the Rich

Home cookin with Yellen

11-Oct-2013 - futures 8:30

Interest on our debt

YUM brands earnings

NSA

Kelly Services

13 Bankers, Simon Johnson, The Baseline Scenario Blog

http://baselinescenario.com/2013/09/26/the-wall-street-takeover-part-2/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BaselineScenario+%28The+Baseline+Scenario%29

United States Government Required Supplementary Information (Unaudited) For the Years Ended September 30, 2012, and 2011

http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/12frusg/12rsi.pdf

US Budget info

US Budget suppliment

SPDR Select Sector Fund - Healthcare

NSA

New NSA Revelations Are Breaking Every Day

ebook - Fiat Money Inflation in France - VMI

ebook - Fiat Money Inflation in France

Misc links, Mortensen, Takavoli, Yahoo poll

http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/2013/09/potus-bailouts-without-indictments/

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/82975/fed-shocker-no-taper

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/poll-end-feds-qe-sight-083330651.html

Movie, Money for Nothing

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/filmmaker-bet-on-financial-crisis-used-profit-to-make-documentary-about-federal-reserve/2013/09/13/6499e55e-14b0-11e3-880b-7503237cc69d_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2013/09/13/review-money-for-nothing-sets-crisis-film-high/

NSA

By “Secret Law” Did They Mean “Not Written Down”? Marcy Wheeler
New browser extensions let you hit the NSA where it hurts: in the data Quartz
The Many Flaws of Dual_EC_DRBG A Few Thoughts on Cry

NSA, Bank spying

SWIFT Suspension? EU Parliament Furious about NSA Bank Spying

NSA

Fisa court ‘not challenged’ on records Guardian
Also, the Nail Polish Remover Lobby Didn’t Challenge Section 215 Orders Marcy Wheeler
Dying for Control (I): Neurosis and Terror as National “Policy” Arthur Silber

Paul Krugman’s Economic Blinders, What the Media Didn't Tell You About the Fall of Lehman Bros. Financial Terrorism

http://michael-hudson.com/2012/05/paul-krugmans-economic-blinders/

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/17/financial-terrorism/

NSA

Cryptographers Attack NSA’s Secret Effort to Subvert Internet Security Slate
UK CRYPTOGRAPHERS CALL FOR OUTING OF DELIBERATELY WEAKENED PROTOCOLS, PRODUCTS ThreatPost

NSA

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-15/swift-takeover-follow-money-nsa-knows-all-about-your-spending-habits

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-15/nsas-transparency-thwarted-fax-machine

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-15/man-charge-nsa-modeled-his-office-bridge-starship-enterprise

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/15/nsa-mind-keith-alexander-star-trek

The Summers bounce

Taibbi, Rolling Stone, 16 firms recieved early data.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/16-major-firms-may-have-received-early-data-from-thomson-reuters-20130905

Learning from Lehman, Panel discussion, Borofsky

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY-U9A7f-7o

NSA, Rogers

NSA panel ‘did not discuss changes’ Guardian
NSA’s Corruption of Cryptography and Its Methods of Coercion Marcy Wheeler

Ruppersberger, Rogers blast media on NSA

AAPL

NSA

NSA shares raw intelligence including Americans’ data with Israel Guardian
Mayor Rahm Emanuel: Why I said ‘no’ to the Midway deal Chicago Tribune.
Yahoo CEO Mayer: we faced jail if we revealed NSA surveillance secrets Guardian.

Albert Bartlett

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-08-29/dr-albert-bartlett-arithmetic-population-and-energy

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/09/09/cu-boulder-campus-mourns-death-longtime-celebrated-physics-professor-al

Ex-Wall Street chieftains living large in post-meltdown world After the Meltdown: Part one in our series looking at the impact of the financial crisis of 2008

Ex-Wall Street chieftains living large in post-meltdown world After the Meltdown: Part one in our series looking at the impact of the financial crisis of 2008

NSA

Gems Mined from the NSA Documents and FISA Court Opinions Released Today EFF
Court Upbraided N.S.A. on Its Use of Call-Log Data New York Times
NSA Spying Seen Risking Billions in U.S. Technology Sales Bloomberg.
Riseup and the recent email provider closures Riseup.

Frank-Dodd, Polk, Infographic

Crisis cost up to $14 trillion, Dallas Fed says

Crisis cost up to $14 trillion, Dallas Fed says

The financial crisis cost the U.S. economy $6 trillion to $14 trillion—and possibly twice that—along with untold costs from "special treatment" that too-big-to-fail banks received, according to an explosive new analysis from the Dallas Federal Reserve.

Nearing the five-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy that shocked the global economy, the central bank analysis takes a stark look at the costs left behind by the crisis and the ensuing bailout.
Among the lasting damages, the paper cites continuing and pervasive unemployment as well as the opportunity costs that came from $12.6 trillion in direct aid given to the financial sector.

"The 2007–09 meltdown produced a huge downshift in the path of economic output, consumption and financial wealth," the paper said. "The nation has borne additional costs arising from psychological consequences, skill atrophy from extended unemployment, a reduced set of economic opportunities and increased government intervention in the economy."

Lessons from the financial crisis of 2008

 

Jessica Bibliowicz, former Chairman & CEO of National Financial Partners, shares her reflections on the huge blow to the U.S. banking system five years ago and how she led her business back from the brink.

(Special Report: Bank from the brink: 5 years later)

All totaled, the damage comes to $6 trillion to $14 trillion, a staggering number that nearly equates to an entire year of gross domestic product.

Broken down, that translates to $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household "or the equivalent of 40 to 90 percent of one year's economic output," the paper said.

And it could be worse—a lot worse—depending on how long it takes for a full recovery to set in.
"If the effects of the crisis are permanent, the path of consumption observed since 2007 suggests that the cost of the crisis may be more than double the $6 trillion to $14 trillion estimate," the paper said.


(Read more: A financial crisis timeline)

The Dallas Fed used output-per-person totals as of mid-2013 to calculate the costs. It figured that number stood at 12 percent lower than typical recoveries over the past 50 years.
Some of the numbers the central bank branch cites are startling: a loss of 8.7 million nonfarm payroll jobs; a peak of 14.7 million unemployed, labor underutilization that remains "intractably high" and 10.6 million underemployed.

(Read more: Jobs growth misses high hopes; rate drops to 7.3%)
"A stark legacy of the recession and the lackluster labor market is reduced opportunity and deterioration captured in subjective measures of well-being," the paper said. "Since the recession's onset in December 2007, more citizens believed their income would be lower in the future than thought it would be higher. This is the first time in any recession since the 1960s that income expectations turned negative."

The U.S. fell from second to 18th on the Frasier Institute's Index of Economic Freedom ranking in 2012, a remnant, the Fed said, of the bailouts used to prop up Wall Street institutions at the center of the financial crisis.

The paper said:

Deemed "too big to fail," these financial intermediaries lacked discipline and accountability leading up to the crisis and proved largely immune to the downside of their excessive risk taking. This special treatment violated a basic tenet of American capitalism: All people and institutions have the freedom to succeed and also to fail based on the merits of their actions. In a way, the 2008–09 bailouts exacted an unfair and nontransparent tax upon the American people.

The Fed added:

Although unprecedented fiscal and monetary action in the throes of panic during 2008–09 may have prevented a full-blown depression, such intervention did not come without significant costs. Society must deal with the consequences of a swollen federal debt, an expanded Federal Reserve balance sheet and increased regulations and government intervention for years to come.

The damage from the crisis remains hard to calculate, the paper said, given the possibility that the U.S. economy may never reach its old productivity level.
The paper concluded:

Given this range of estimates, the tepid economic recovery and the collateral damage sustained, it is crucial to implement effective policies that avoid future episodes whose magnitude could exceed even the staggering costs and consequences of the most recent financial crisis.

(Read the full Dallas Fed report here.)

NSA

The Cowboy of the NSA Foreign Policy
James Clapper’s Financial War on the World Marcy Wheeler.
NSA Has Apparently Targeted SWIFT Network, Petrobras, and the French Diplomatic Network Kevin Drum
Helicopter circles US consulate in spy probe The Local
Johns Hopkins and the Case of the Missing NSA Blog Post ProPublica

NSA, Google, Petrobras, financial

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/09/us-usa-security-snowden-petrobras-idUSBRE9870AD20130909

futures September 6

NSA

US and UK spy agencies defeat privacy and security on the internet The Guardian.
How to remain secure against NSA surveillance Bruce Schneier
Garrett Brown Faces 105 Years in Jail Rolling Stone

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-05/bullrun-nsas-infatuation-back-door-penetration

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=224132