Thursday, January 7, 2010

Market wrap - 4:20ish

Not much action today as the market traded pretty much flat after a dip in the morning. For the second straight day the NASDAQ didn't participate much, closing down a little. Google got hammered for the third day falling from $629.51 to $594.10 at the close today. The banking index BKX was on fire as many smaller banks were rocketing up for the third day. The large banks did well too, but not like the smaller and regional banks.

Volume was about normal for the indexes and the dollar had a great day finishing at 77.97, heading toward the resistance at 78.34. The BOE (Bank of England) did not change interest rates today, and there are rumors China my raise theirs. Nat Gas report was close to expectations but dropped 2.85%, and crude oil took a dip and fell .061%

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 we will get the all important non-farm Employment report, which will no doubt set the tone for the market. The street estimates are all over the map so it seems this time nobody has a clue, but the NASDAQ website is posting expectations of - M/M change of 10,000. Prior number was -11,000 and projections is -50,000 to 40,000. We shall see at 8:30. I'll have it posted as soon as they make the official numbers available. Today's jobless claims did not hit the web until 9:00 which is about as late as I've seen them. I will post some employment charts below for comparison for tomorrow.

Simon Johnson telling the truth on CNBC - posted 2:25 pm

This video aired around 9 or a bit after this morning. Some producer will get fired for allowing someone to tell the truth. Must see - enjoy.

Treasury offering announcements today - posted 1:45 - announced 11:00

Treasury offering announcements today:

January 11 - $10 Billion in TIPS
January 11 - $24 Billion in 13-Week Bills
January 11 - $25 Billion in 26-Week Bills
January 12 - $26 Billion in 52-Week Bills
January 12 - $40 Billion in 3 Year Notes
January 13 - $21 Billion in 9 Year 10 Month Notes
January 14 - $13 Billion in 29 Year 10 Month Notes

For the math impared, that's $159 Billon of offerings - which also means another $159 Billon of debt. Oh boy!

Graph from Zero Hedge - one of the best blogs on the net.

Retail sales numbers - 12:08 pm

From CNBC - Retailers See Stronger Profits as Sales Strengthen

CNBC.com
| 07 Jan 2010 | 11:05 AM ET

Retailers reported stronger than expected sales gains in December despite prior indications that consumers remained very deliberate in their spending over the holidays.

According to Retail Forward, same-store sales, excluding Wal-Mart Stores, were up 3 percent in December as shoppers gave a particular boost to apparel spending during the holidays.

Thomson Reuters said about 75 percent of the retailers reporting monthly sales results topped analysts' estimates.

Since retailers had been planning for cautious consumer spending and remained very disciplined with their discounting throughout the holiday season, several retailers were able to raise their earnings forecasts on the strength of these sales.

This is significant as prior increases in earnings estimates had mainly come on the back of cost cutting and productivity improvements.

"Considering the holidays were competitive on price and analysts' estimates heightened, to see the magnitude of the guidance revision was striking," said Wall Street Strategies analyst Brian Sozzi. "Management teams are operating at a high level, driving supply chain savings and keeping inventories lean. But, for the first time in a while, greater-than-expected sales trends appear to be a factor in stronger than previously thought fourth-quarter earnings."

Among those increasing earnings estimates were department store Macy's , teen apparel retailers Zumiez and American Eagle Outfitters , Victoria's Secret owner Limited , and discounters Target and Ross Stores .

Many of these estimates were well-above analysts' forecasts, including that of Sears Holding . Sears shares hit a 52-week high after the company said strong sales at Kmart prompted the company to raise its earnings forecast for the current quarter to a range of $3.36 to $4.06 a share, compared with the $2.65 a share average estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Another encouraging sign was strong results at high-end department stores Saks and J.W. Nordstrom .

Despite these rosy reports, there were some retailers who are continuing to struggle.

Among apparel retailers, results have been mixed. Some teen apparel retailers have posted robust sales, while others showed anemic results. Buckle , for example, saw its same-store sales increase by 6.6 percent, far outpacing the 2.1 percent estimate. But Hot Topic , which had been expected to report a 8.6 percent decline in same store sales saw a deeper decline of 10.9 percent.

Department store results remained weak. J.C. Penney saw its same-store sales decline 3.8 percent, essentially in line with estimates.

Bookseller Barnes & Noble lowered its third-quarter forecast on Thursday, citing weak sales over the holiday.

Barnes & Noble did see some pockets of strength. There was strong demand for its Nook electronic reader, but it sold out of its initial supply, limiting the impact of this trend. The retailer also saw strong online sales growth, with sales at barnesandnoble.com up 17 percent.

Strong online sales were common trend, Sozzi said. Among those companies sharing such data, online sales were up an average of 16 percent, he estimates.

Although the monthly retail sales results are being closely watched for the signals they provide about the holiday season, some key players don't report monthly sales results. These companies include Wal-Mart Stores and Best Buy , among others.

Below is a summary of the retailer results:

© 2010 CNBC.com

AIG - Geithner - and the Bloomberg disclosure of e-mails - reference data - 12:00

From Bloomberg - Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure

More from Zero Hedge - Tim Geithner "Protects America From Itself" By Forcing Elimination Of Material AIG Disclosure

Zero Hedge again - Might AIG Escape Prosecution for (Allegedly) Cooking the Books?

Karl Denninger from Market Ticker also chimes in - Where The Sun Never Shines

Video of CNBC commentary;

Natural gas reports - 10:30 report - 10:45

From MarketWatch

Natural-gas inventories fall 153 bcf last week

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Natural-gas futures pared losses Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a decline in last week's inventories that's in line with analysts' expectations. Natural-gas stockpiles fell 153 billion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 1, the EIA said. After the data, February natural gas fell 0.9% to $5.961 per million British thermal units. It was down nearly 2% before the data.

Jobless claim - official - finally they posted the official numbers - 9:30 am

Full report here

EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION

USDL 10-02-NAT

Program Contact:	TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS
Scott Gibbons (202) 693-3008	RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
Tony Sznoluch (202) 693-3176	8:30 A.M. (EST), THURSDAY
Media Contact :	January 7, 2010
(202) 693-4676

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 433,000. The 4-week moving average was 450,250, a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week's revised average of 460,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending Dec. 26, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.8 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 26 was 4,802,000, a decrease of 179,000 from the preceding week's unrevised level of 4,981,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,005,750, a decrease of 95,250 from the preceding week's unrevised average of 5,101,000.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.565 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 645,571 in the week ending Jan. 2, an increase of 88,000 from the previous week. There were 731,958 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.2 percent during the week ending Dec. 26, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,479,110, an increase of 388,729 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.0 percent and the volume was 5,317,388.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Dec. 19.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,651 in the week ending Dec. 26, a decrease of 105 from the prior week. There were 1,381 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 893 from the preceding week.

There were 25,771 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Dec. 19, a decrease of 651 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 34,397, a decrease of 3,129 from the prior week.

States reported 5,143,410 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Dec. 19, an increase of 235,626 from the prior week. There were 1,922,488 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 19 were in Alaska (6.7 percent), Oregon (5.9), Puerto Rico (5.8), Nevada (5.6), Idaho (5.5), Pennsylvania (5.2), Wisconsin (5.2), Montana (5.1), Washington (5.1), and Michigan (5.0).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Dec. 26 were in Pennsylvania (+9,653), Kentucky (+6,069), Indiana (+5,537), Kansas (+5,166), and Ohio (+4,361), while the largest decreases were in California (-23,160), Texas (-7,956), Georgia (-4,661), Florida (-3,736), and North Carolina
(-2,993).

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING	Jan. 2	Dec. 26	Change	Dec. 19	Year
	Advance				Prior1

Initial Claims (SA)	434,000	433,000	+1,000	454,000	488,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	645,571	557,571	+88,000	565,243	731,958
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	450,250	460,500	-10,250	465,750	528,000


WEEK ENDING	Dec. 26	Dec. 19	Change	Dec. 12	Year
	Advance				Prior1

Ins. Unemployment (SA)	4,802,000	4,981,000	-179,000	5,038,000	4,529,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA)	5,479,110	5,090,381	+388,729	5,345,467	5,317,388
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	5,005,750	5,101,000	-95,250	5,223,250	4,421,500

Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)²	3.6%	3.8%	-0.2	3.8%	3.4%
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)²	4.2%	3.9%	+0.3	4.1%	4.0%

INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING	Dec. 26	Dec. 19	Change	Year
				Prior1

Federal Employees	1,651	1,756	-105	1,419
Newly Discharged Veterans	1,381	2,274	-893	1,115

PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	Dec. 19	Dec. 12	Change	Year

Federal Employees	25,771	26,422	-651	19,158
Newly Discharged Veterans	34,397	37,526	-3,129	24,112
Railroad Retirement Board	11,000	11,000	0	5,000
Extended Benefits	296,534	367,498	-70,964	1,168
EUC 2008³	5,143,410	4,907,784	+235,626	1,922,488

FOOTNOTES
SA - Seasonally Adjusted Data
NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
¹ - Prior year is comparable to most recent data.
² - Most recent week used covered employment of 131,823,421 as denominator.
³ - EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 12/26/2009

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State	Change	State Supplied Comment
CA	-23,160	Decrease due to a shorter workweek, as well as fewer layoffs in the construction and service industries.
TX	-7,956	Fewer layoffs in the trade, service, and manufacturing industries.
GA	-4,661	Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries.
FL	-3,736	Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries, and agriculture.
NC	-2,993	Fewer layoffs in the construction and service industries.
AZ	-2,175	No comment.
NY	-2,043	Decrease due to a shorter workweek, as well as fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and real estate industries.
NV	-1,871	No comment.
CO	-1,421	No comment.
LA	-1,386	No comment.
CT	-1,307	No comment.
OK	-1,246	No comment.

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State	Change	State Supplied Comment
TN	+1,461	Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
MD	+1,489	No comment.
AR	+1,638	No comment.
MO	+2,342	Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing industries.
NJ	+2,540	Layoffs in the construction, service, transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing industries.
IL	+2,571	Layoffs in the construction, trade, and manufacturing industries.
WI	+2,749	Layoffs in the construction, trade, service, transportation, and warehousing industries.
MA	+2,757	No comment.
MI	+2,994	No comment.
OH	+4,361	No comment.
KS	+5,166	No comment.
IN	+5,537	Layoffs in the automobile, transportation, service, and manufacturing industries.
KY	+6,069	Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
PA	+9,653	Layoffs in the construction, service, food, and transportation industries.

State Detail Prior Week
UI Claims Series 1967 to current

Jobless claims -from MarketWatch - released 8:30 am

I'll post the official release from DOL when they post it. Really late today for some reason.

Link

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of initial claims for state unemployment benefits was essentially unchanged in the week of Jan. 2, rising 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000 after dramatic declines the previous two weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits of any kind, including extended federal benefits, rose by 518,100 in the week of Dec. 19 to 10.6 million, not seasonally adjusted.

Pre-market - 4th trading day or 2010 - 8:00

Futures down a bit this morning waiting on the jobs report at 8:30 and a stronger dollar index which rose overnight to 78.03 at 8:10 this morning.

Today's economic calendar:

Chain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index
BOE Announcement                 7:00 AM ET - No rate change
Jobless Claims                          8:30 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement     11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement    11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement 11:00 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS                  3:00 PM ET
Money Supply                      4:30 PM ET

Todays earnings reports:
Before open:

LEN	Lennar Corp.	Industrial Goods	Residential Construction
MSM	MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc.	Services	Industrial Equipment Wholesale
MTRX	Matrix Service Co.	Industrial Goods	Heavy Construction
STZ	Constellation Brands Inc.	Consumer Goods	Beverages - Wineries & Distillers
TXI	Texas Industries Inc.	Industrial Goods	Cement

After close:

APOL	Apollo Group Inc.	Services	Education & Training Services
CAMP	CalAmp Corp.	Technology	Communication Equipment
CRI	Carter's, Inc.	Consumer Goods	Textile - Apparel Clothing
DMAN	DemandTec, Inc.	Technology	Business Software & Services
DRWI	DragonWave Inc.	Technology	Communication Equipment
FC	Franklin Covey Co.	Consumer Goods	Office Supplies
GPN	Global Payments Inc.	Services	Business Services
IHS	IHS Inc.	Technology	Business Software & Services
LWSN	Lawson Software, Inc.	Technology	Application Software
MG	Mistras Group, Inc.	Services	Technical Services
NUHC	Nu Horizons Electronics Corp.	Services	Electronics Wholesale
SCHN	Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc.	Basic Materials	Steel & Iron
SHLM	A. Schulman, Inc.	Consumer Goods	Rubber & Plastics

Upgrades:

CYMI	Cymer Inc.	Technology	Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
SONS	Sonus Networks, Inc.	Technology	Communication Equipment
BBBY	Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.	Services	Home Furnishing Stores
IT	Gartner Inc.	Services	Management Services
AIT	Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.	Services	Industrial Equipment Wholesale
CB	The Chubb Corporation	Financial	Property & Casualty Insurance
BAC	Bank of America Corporation	Financial	Money Center Banks
AIB	Allied Irish Banks plc	Financial	Foreign Money Center Banks
SNCR	Synchronoss Technologies, Inc.	Technology	Application Software
UNF	UniFirst Corp.	Services	Business Services
MCK	McKesson Corporation	Services	Drugs Wholesale
CRL	Charles River Laboratories International Inc.	Healthcare	Biotechnology
PKI	PerkinElmer Inc.	Healthcare	Medical Instruments & Supplies

Downgrades:

PGR	Progressive Corp.	Financial	Property & Casualty Insurance
WEN	Wendy's/Arby's Group, Inc.	Services	Restaurants
CMP	Compass Minerals International Inc.	Basic Materials	Agricultural Chemicals
ACL	Alcon Inc.	Healthcare	Medical Instruments & Supplies
PPDI	Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc.	Healthcare	Medical Laboratories & Research
LIFE	Life Technologies Corporation	Healthcare	Biotechnology
ABC	AmerisourceBergen Corporation	Services	Drugs Wholesale
INFY	Infosys Technologies Ltd.	Technology	Technical & System Software

From Bloomberg - Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Market wrap - 5:20 pm

Not much to talk about today. Opened a bit down, didn't do much all day. Dollar at 77.52 at the closing bell. Steel, coal stock soaring. FOMC minutes didn't do much. Just a boring day in what seems like a tired market.

FOMC minutes from December - 5:15 pm

FOMC minutes 01062010 -

CNBC let someone tell the truth? Peter Costa - aired at 9:10 am

Crude inventories - 10:30 am

From MarketWatch

Crude falls as data show rising inventories

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported crude inventories rose last week as imports increased. The EIA also reported a big buildup in gasoline inventories as demand remained weak. Crude inventories rose 1.3 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 1, and gasoline inventories gained 3.7 million barrels, the EIA said. Distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 300,000 barrels, as cold weather pushed up heating oil demand. After the data, crude for February delivery lost 0.7% to $81.17 a barrel, it was up about 0.5% before the data.

ISM Non-manufacturing - 10:10 am

December 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 50.1%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of December 2009.

Business Activity Index at 53.7%
New Orders Index at 52.1%
Employment Index at 44%

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December after one month of contraction, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.1 percent in December, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 48.7 percent registered in November, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector for three out of the last four months. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 4.1 percentage points to 53.7 percent, reflecting growth after contracting for one month. The New Orders Index decreased 3 percentage points to 52.1 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.4 percentage points to 44 percent. The Prices Index increased 0.9 percentage point to 58.7 percent in December, indicating a slight increase in prices paid from November. According to the NMI, seven non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents' comments vary by industry and, for the most part, are either neutral or slightly more optimistic about business conditions."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)

The seven industries reporting growth in December based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance. The nine industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Construction.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

"Economy seems to have leveled off with expectation of an upswing in our business in Q1 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
"There has been a slight upturn in our business activities; however, it is not entirely attributable to any one particular source." (Public Administration)
"The environment seems to be improving, but we will continue to be cautious as we look forward." (Retail Trade)
"The current economic conditions are continuing to have a flat or negative effect on our business." (Wholesale Trade)
"No items in short supply; suppliers looking to set up agreements for 2010 with quarterly or semiannual price reviews." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Beef (2); Cheese (5); Copper; Copper Fittings; Copper Pipe; #2 Diesel Fuel (2); Gasoline (2); Natural Gas; and Plastic Bags.

Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

Masks [for TB/H1N1 use] (3) is the only commodity reported in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)

In December, the NMI registered 50.1 percent, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector after one month of contraction. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

NMI HISTORY

Month	NMI	Month	NMI
Dec 2009	50.1	Jun 2009	47.0
Nov 2009	48.7	May 2009	44.0
Oct 2009	50.6	Apr 2009	43.7
Sep 2009	50.9	Mar 2009	40.8
Aug 2009	48.4	Feb 2009	41.6
Jul 2009	46.4	Jan 2009	42.9
Average for 12 months — 46.3 High — 50.9 Low — 40.8

Business Activity

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in December registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 4.1 percentage points when compared to the 49.6 percent registered in November. Seven industries reported increased business activity, and seven industries reported decreased activity for the month of December. Four industries reported no change from November. Comments from respondents include "General pickup in business" and "Regular seasonal boost, nothing out of the ordinary."
The industries reporting growth of business activity in December — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Mining; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Public Administration. The industries reporting decreased business activity in December — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services.

Business Activity	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	26	50	24	53.7
Nov 2009	23	52	25	49.6
Oct 2009	25	58	17	55.2
Sep 2009	25	56	19	55.1

New Orders

ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in December for the fourth consecutive month. The index registered 52.1 percent, which is a decrease of 3 percentage points from the 55.1 percent reported in November. Comments from respondents include: "Everyone trying to spend out before the year end and holiday vacations" and "Organizations need additional help to complete workload."
The six industries reporting growth of new orders in December — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The seven industries reporting contraction of new orders in December — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services.

New Orders	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	22	55	23	52.1
Nov 2009	26	56	18	55.1
Oct 2009	25	58	17	55.6
Sep 2009	25	54	21	54.2

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 23rd time in the last 24 months. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for December registered 44 percent. This reflects an increase of 2.4 percentage points when compared to the 41.6 percent registered in November. Four industries reported increased employment, 12 industries reported decreased employment, and two industries reported unchanged employment compared to November. Comments from respondents include: "Decrease in occupancy equals decrease in employment" and "Continuing to aggressively manage costs down."
The industries reporting an increase in employment in December are: Other Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Public Administration. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	9	70	21	44.0
Nov 2009	11	61	28	41.6
Oct 2009	5	68	27	41.1
Sep 2009	13	60	27	44.3

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.5 percent in December, indicating supplier deliveries were slower in December when compared to November. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The five industries reporting slower deliveries in December are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in December are: Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Supplier Deliveries	% Slower	% Same	% Faster	Index
Dec 2009	8	85	7	50.5
Nov 2009	6	85	9	48.5
Oct 2009	6	89	5	50.5
Sep 2009	8	84	8	50.0

Inventories

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 51.5 percent in December, indicating that inventory levels grew in December after 15 consecutive months of contraction. Of the total respondents in December, 29 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include "Deliberate buildup" and "Adjusting upward for holiday demand."
The six industries reporting an increase in inventories in December — listed in order — are: Information; Retail Trade; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The eight industries reporting decreases in inventories in December — listed in order — are: Mining; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Finance & Insurance.

Inventories	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	21	61	18	51.5
Nov 2009	19	53	28	45.5
Oct 2009	15	56	29	43.0
Sep 2009	20	55	25	47.5

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased slightly in December. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for December registered 58.7 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the 57.8 percent reported in November. In December, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 19 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 73 percent, and 8 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.
In December, eight industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Finance & Insurance. The only industry reporting prices as decreasing for the month of December is Other Services.

Prices	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	19	73	8	58.7
Nov 2009	21	69	10	57.8
Oct 2009	14	73	13	53.0
Sep 2009	9	77	14	48.8

Backlog of Orders

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in December for the second consecutive month. The index registered 48 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 48.5 percent reported in November. Of the total respondents in December, 45 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.
The three industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in December are: Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting lower backlog of orders in December are: Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade.

Backlog of Orders	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	13	70	17	48.0
Nov 2009	16	65	19	48.5
Oct 2009	19	69	12	53.5
Sep 2009	19	65	16	51.5

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel contracted in December after two consecutive months of growth. The New Export Orders Index for December registered 46 percent, which is a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from November's index of 54.5 percent. Of the total respondents in December, 72 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the United States.
The two industries reporting an increase in new export orders in December are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Retail Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in export orders in December are: Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Export Orders	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	13	66	21	46.0
Nov 2009	19	71	10	54.5
Oct 2009	18	71	11	53.5
Sep 2009	14	69	17	48.5

Imports

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index registered 52.5 percent indicating growth for the month of December. In the month of December, 63 percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track, the use of imported materials.
The four industries reporting an increase in the use of imports in December are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Retail Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports for the month of December are: Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities.

Imports	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Index
Dec 2009	17	71	12	52.5
Nov 2009	5	82	13	46.0
Oct 2009	2	88	10	46.0
Sep 2009	9	85	6	51.5

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in December registered 61 percent. This is 0.5 percentage point lower than the 61.5 percent reported in November, indicating that respondents still believe their inventories are too high at this time. In December, 23 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 1 percent said their inventories were too low, and 76 percent said their inventories were about right.
The eight industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in December — listed in order — are: Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Retail Trade. The only industry reporting that their inventory is too low in December is Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Inventory Sentiment	%Too High	%About Right	%Too Low	Index
Dec 2009	23	76	1	61.0
Nov 2009	30	63	7	61.5
Oct 2009	30	67	3	63.5
Sep 2009	30	64	6	62.0

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.
The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™, the largest supply management research and education organization in the United States. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education.
The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® is posted on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^® featuring the January 2010 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, February 3, 2010.

ADP job report - for December - 8:15 am

ADP_FINAL_Release_December_09 -

Challenger Job report - 7:30 am

Released on 1/6/2010 7:30:00 AM For Dec, 2008

	Prior	Actual
Announced Layoffs - Level	50,349	45,094

Highlights
Challenger's count of layoff announcements fell to 45,094 from 50,349 in November and compared against 166,348 in December 2008. The results are consistent with expectations for incremental improvement in Friday's jobs report. ADP's count is up at 8:15 a.m.

Pre-market - 3rd trading day of 2010 - 7:30 am

Futures down a little this morning with some important data coming out including the ADP jobs report.

Today's economic calendar:
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET

Today's earnings reports-
Before open:

AYI	Acuity Brands, Inc.	Consumer Goods	Home Furnishings & Fixtures
FDO	Family Dollar Stores Inc.	Services	Discount, Variety Stores
MON	Monsanto Co.	Basic Materials	Agricultural Chemicals
NWPX	Northwest Pipe Co.	Basic Materials	Steel & Iron
RBN	Robbins & Myers Inc.	Industrial Goods	Diversified Machinery
RPM	RPM International Inc.	Industrial Goods	General Building Materials
UNF	UniFirst Corp.	Services	Business Services
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	Basic Materials	Steel & Iron